I'm long AAPL. No options, just long. I added to my position significantly at 405.xx so the movement over the past week has been great. I would have put in more as it dipped under 400 but needed to pay q1 taxes lol.
The Official Trading Thread
- Thread starter mGrunin
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I'm long AAPL. No options, just long. I added to my position significantly at 405.xx so the movement over the past week has been great. I would have put in more as it dipped under 400 but needed to pay q1 taxes lol.
Ha! noobs...
I feel like investing in the stock market for the individual trader/investor, is a lot like getting to fuck a hot girl that's been with hundreds of others before you. I know you may think you're getting the same experience as the early guys did, but you're not. She may even jump and ditch you when one of them call her out of the blue, even though you're supposed to take her out and had planned it for months. She's burned out and worn out. You're just paying more for less, and worse, you may end up with some crabs too.
Okay, maybe that's a tad harsh.. But unless you're a financial professional, and privy to the first come first serve old boy's club that only the pros on the street get, the edge is just not in your favor. Never has been, and never will be. (unless of course you decide to go the insider trading route, and if that's the case, you're playing with fire and its only a matter of time until you get burned, like to a crisp..)
You're VERY limited here. Just so long as you accept that, then best of luck to ya. But if you actually believe you can figure it out or have a strategy you know of, or even follow 'the fundamental' plays that the old guys swear by... you're doomed my friends.
Use your cash and strategies elsewhere.
I feel like investing in the stock market for the individual trader/investor, is a lot like getting to fuck a hot girl that's been with hundreds of others before you. I know you may think you're getting the same experience as the early guys did, but you're not. She may even jump and ditch you when one of them call her out of the blue, even though you're supposed to take her out and had planned it for months. She's burned out and worn out. You're just paying more for less, and worse, you may end up with some crabs too.
Okay, maybe that's a tad harsh.. But unless you're a financial professional, and privy to the first come first serve old boy's club that only the pros on the street get, the edge is just not in your favor. Never has been, and never will be. (unless of course you decide to go the insider trading route, and if that's the case, you're playing with fire and its only a matter of time until you get burned, like to a crisp..)
You're VERY limited here. Just so long as you accept that, then best of luck to ya. But if you actually believe you can figure it out or have a strategy you know of, or even follow 'the fundamental' plays that the old guys swear by... you're doomed my friends.
Use your cash and strategies elsewhere.
When it's the CEO I'm speaking to the 1-2 year window. If you've been making money trading FB, I'm not suggesting you change your approach. I'm just blah-to-bearish for a FB buy and hold here or at any level, frankly.
Well, I like and respect you sir.. but on this projection, you are wrong.
I've been in the game for 19 years now. Pioneered it with a crew of guys who aren't even still playing. Revolutionized it with the advent of this very forum. Been through all the ups and downs, on many different sides. I can tell you right now, there will be an industry and even multiple and very active traffic markets both new and old for a very long time. It will mature though. It may even become regulated at some point too.
But I guarantee it will be around, and the amount of control one entity can have in THIS market compared to Wall Street is HUGE. You are at the mercy of Wall Street and all of its players. Unless you're a rainmaker of epic proportions, and they invite you in to play with them, then you'll be left playing a never ending game of catch up, where the odds were never, and likely never will be, in your favor. Whereas in our market, you can absolutely sway markets from many different positions, if you're able to see it, and have the funds to back it up. You can also profit from it tremendously by comparison. True, you may not be able to brag about it in the same way, but who the fuck wants to brag and ruin an amazing thing in the first place?
I'll leave you with this... From all of my years in THIS market, I can, without a shred of doubt, say it is NOT impossible to project that this industry will be around, but that I guarantee it will be, and the profits realized, from nowadays versus five years from now, REGARDLESS of whichever niche is hot or not, will still be tremendous by comparison of ROI (how much cash you invest in the stock market, and make off profits, vs how much you invest in aff marketing/traffic arb and make off profits).
My fund goes head to head with underfunded, immature affs/networks/advertisers every single day, and turns a profit on every single play. That's how we can exist and continue operating with the budgets we've got. Its not fun, and the headaches are certainly there, but the day you can turn 2:1-4:1 profits on every single play you make over on Wall Street, consistently, then shit, I'll just shut the fuck up now and go back to minding my own p's and q's.
This is the way I try to trade. I am not the guy at the office that sits behind his desk creating fake receipts everyday for the boss, to get reimbursed for company purchases but instead pocketing the cash. Instead, I am the one driving the white van that just so happens to see a young woman making her way down the street slowly, practically stumbling over her own feet. I would step out, knock her down, take her money, and hop back in the van. Go on with my life. The people "up there" have massive control over the markets and constantly feed off the loses of retail investors/traders, but they cannot control all market movements. The times when they aren't in control is when you make your hit and run.
I won't chime in again, because its not fair to derail your thread off topic... so continue guys. There's no harm in discussing it and honestly, I love traders. They are a different breed from the avg guy. I'd hire them for sales over most anyone else. No resume or college degree required. They are in a class of their own.
That is good to hear. The one thing that turns me away from the way the industry is how that there is too much turnover. The fact that a network can go from being the best to filing for bankruptcy in less than two years is ridiculous. The fact that massive dollars in this industries are still derived from diet/skin using FTC disapproved landers is frightening. The concept of "affiliate marketing" will always be around since its vital for many businesses to grow and very beneficial since they place all experimental costs on us. But at some point the barrier to enter on the affiliate side and advertising side need to both move much higher that way the industry can mature as a whole.
Regarding return, the returns in IM are amazing. The other day one of my friends showed me a screenshot of him running over $100k rev in the last 24 hours with 60% roi, course that is amazing. For me to pull over that much roi with that capital in trading would require enormous risk and stress. His biggest stress was losing his advertising account. These past 2 days in trading was considered very good returns due to the move up on a single stock, I pulled in 200% ROI yesterday, and probably 250% today but I know that for most days it will be 15-20% return on a day if I play all my cards right under good market conditions. While the bright affiliate might have underperformed me yesterday and today, but he'll make for it with a consistent 50-100% return for the rest of the week.
It feels like the 90's in terms of the trading activity. This market goes up every month, week ,and day. It's been relentless for the past four years and I agree the fundamentals are much better now than even the 80's or 90's because interest rates are never going up again, historically low PE ratios, and high profits & earnings growth.
I am a strong believer that the less time your positions spend on the markets the better. If I look at a chart and try to predict a movement for the stock in the next couple months, I am playing a fools game. Just like mentioned Jon, if the supertraders up there want the stock to go up they will make that happen. They will have the stock disregard every fundamental and every technical. They will make sure they utilize their unlimited pockets to move the stock, create a false sense of confidence or fear. They will have analysts, such as the ones on the CNBC squad speak positively or negatively about it, and they will ultimately move the stock in the direction that they want.
That is exactly why I do not like to trade and have my money out there on the markets for weeks or months. If I am dealing with a hot stock such as Apple,Google, Amazon, FB; then I can throw all my charts to the trash. If the big boys want Amazon at a better price, they will bring it down. At that point, all I can hope is that I picked the same side as the big boys.
Moving into how I trade, I go in and out every couple days. I do not keep my money there any longer. Just long enough where technicals stay relevant and there isn't enough manipulation by outside forces. If there is manipulation, I get out, and cut losses quickly.
Lastly, my main positions are ALWAYS non-directional plays. I use directional plays as a hedge to my non-directional positions.
That is exactly why I do not like to trade and have my money out there on the markets for weeks or months. If I am dealing with a hot stock such as Apple,Google, Amazon, FB; then I can throw all my charts to the trash. If the big boys want Amazon at a better price, they will bring it down. At that point, all I can hope is that I picked the same side as the big boys.
Moving into how I trade, I go in and out every couple days. I do not keep my money there any longer. Just long enough where technicals stay relevant and there isn't enough manipulation by outside forces. If there is manipulation, I get out, and cut losses quickly.
Lastly, my main positions are ALWAYS non-directional plays. I use directional plays as a hedge to my non-directional positions.
i lol at people who think you have to have an "edge" in the markets to make money. I have been trading on and off for 8 years and never had a year where I lost money. MGrunin will eventually figure out how to make money overall for sure, it's just like affiliate marketing. . . you just have to figure out how the market works.
Most people can't keep profits in the market because they get emotional with their trades and break important rules. The game is not to be constantly profitable, but to minimize losses. My account was up over 40% this year until I started breaking my own rules, had I of followed them I would have increased my ROI instead of decreasing them. . . we are all human though and will repeat the same mistakes over and over.
Edge lol
Most people can't keep profits in the market because they get emotional with their trades and break important rules. The game is not to be constantly profitable, but to minimize losses. My account was up over 40% this year until I started breaking my own rules, had I of followed them I would have increased my ROI instead of decreasing them. . . we are all human though and will repeat the same mistakes over and over.
Edge lol
Right... but there are lots of very simple factors and reasons behind how or why things like that happen. Most of it due to stupidity, no discipline, zero to little business operation skills in the first place, and of course an immaturity level of epic proportions. Business owners, whether they be advertisers or affiliates or even networks many times allow their balls or appetite of shiny/sparkly stuff to overtake their rationale decision making process. Many of them are also either in the psychopath or sociopath slots, so for longterm success and getting away with an obvious edge just won't last. Plus its become an epidemic that the FTC saw a very clear and obvious (we call this low hanging fruit) set of idiots to target. The FTC likes easy wins. Who can blame them, we all like that! I'm glad they came in and shook shit up here.. No one else was doing a fucking thing to them. I'm not a huge fan of regulating our industry either, but I know for a fact that what the FTC came in and did, served a very valid purpose. But we all know it won't stop the next round of guys just doing the same thing over again. Because its too profitable, and many of them truly believe that the risk is worth the reward. So, let them go and shoot themselves in their feet all they like. That entire area alone may have a dent on the bigger networks that didn't diversify correctly in the first place to go in, get burned, and get nuked. That doesn't mean there aren't thousands of other networks that DIDN'T or WON'T take part in the same foolishness and just take over from where the doomed ones were removed.
Networks are just middlemen. There are TONS of them. There always has been, and its likely that there always will be. Because someone, somewhere, needs them to be there. They also make things easier for the most part, many times.
There will also always be affiliates. Its one of the least riskiest positions to be in. While the current affiliate that exists now is leaps and bounds more educated, seasoned, and just privy to all sorts of analytics, tracking, in-depth options on where to put their cash and time into versus discovering new positions to jump into. But it doesn't mean that affiliates today grind harder, day after day more so than the affs of old days. Because they don't. Many of them are actually a lot lazier, slower to react, and oddly enough nowhere near as creative. The more their options and information access increased, the less of an edge they've kept. Not all, but damn certainly most.
I know revenues and gains are nice to look at as they grow... but when I was referring to returns on ROI, I meant pure profit. Invest $1, make $2 back, but count only $1 as profit, since that's what it is, its not $2 to me at all VERSUS not 'sales/rev' of invest $1, make $2 and call the $2 as ROI. Because that's not the same, and its worth noting.
With the stock market, you can have all sorts of overall days where you're 'up'. Very true. But if you want to take the same standard and apply it to aff marketing, you're going to be disappointed. Because the numbers we post, are a win (only counting profits, not sales/rev) every, single, time. Every single campaign. Every single day.
You see, I truly believe that I am not the only one here that can do this. In fact, I know there are guys in the industry that can do the same thing my fund does, and probably do it better. But consistently, over a long period of time, and be able to see risk long before it hits, and adapt, and then leverage it to increase our profits? Fuck no. No one but me (that I know of at least) can make that happen... and it wasn't school that taught me how to do this, its all from being a fucking senior citizen in this game, for so long, and from actually doing it, failing, adapting, getting back into it, and doing it again, over and over and over again, on all of the different sides. This is my calling. Everything before this was training for me. That's how I know you are wrong and how things like this can happen.
Now, if you can find someone like that, but on Wall Street, that doesn't break any rules/laws and can still be as consistently PROFITABLE and CORRECT every single time, for a long time... sign me the fuck up. Because last time I checked, God didn't play the market, only people and computers did.
Look. To tl;dr it... The stock market was never created to give you an edge, therefore, you're chasing a myth and a dream. But our industry always gave us an edge, that's how it was built. FOR affiliates to do the work and get the sales/leads/actions/traffic, and to have the advertisers always be playing catch up. And that's how it works! So how can anyone believe our industry has less of an edge versus the stock market?? Because they are fucking naive. That's the end of it. You're being naive. And that's how you may never be able to get the edge you're chasing in any market, because you just won't accept the reality of how that market was and currently runs.
MGrunin, I'll make you a real deal here... If you can beat the market, consistently, and stay PROFITABLE from now until May 1st of 2016... and you still need/want to take this to the next level, you find me, and I'll stay true to my word and put up the funds needed to make that happen for you. I'll put up/invest up to $3M on you and whatever strategy you're playing on over there, personally (you may want to get licensed by then). Even if by some act of God, I go broke, I'll figure out a way to come up with the funds, with interest...
HOWEVER.. if you can't.. then you come work for me for three years, for free (I'll cover your expenses, but you'll be an apprentice/intern).
Do we have a deal?
HOWEVER.. if you can't.. then you come work for me for three years, for free (I'll cover your expenses, but you'll be an apprentice/intern).
Do we have a deal?
We have a deal. I will call you in three years.
You might have misunderstood my previous post because I do know that the movement of market are completely out of my control and in the hands of the big guys. I also know that it is impossible to be correct on every trade. The gist of my post was that I make sure to stay as less in the markets as possible, so I do not open myself as a prey.
Edit: Noticed the edit. That still works for me. It is just a matter of being profitable from today until 05/01/16? I am guessing that you would want to see me use a decent bit of capital. So let's say that profitable would be a minimum of $250,000 gain between then and now.
your profit could be 250,000 and you could still not beat the market. . . beating the market would mean you can produce a better rate of return than what the rise in the market would be you have to discuss percentages not dollars. . .
Yes, I understand. If the markets are up 20% over the next three years, I have to do more than that. I was asking in regards to how much capital I have to use use. If I show him I beat the markets with a 25% gain over the three years while using $100,000. That can easily be claimed as insufficient data.
Gotcha. Good luck! based off your posts and vids I don't see why you can't accomplish that task (not without its difficulty though).
Yep, anything regarding the market can be posted here. If you will post a pick, if you can back it up with data. That would be great.
If you notice the channel that I have marked in this I rode that for a nice profit (sadly it was my last profitable trade) I have lost a lot of moy ROI since.
I will most likely buy a few hundred shares of this tomorrow and set a stop at 1-2% of my entry
I also purchased some LEAP calls on this in my paper money account (just started trading options theta and vega can be a bitch) hoepfully doing the LEAP will make them less prevalent