Just sold out of Facebook @ $28.95. I've actually sold out of nearly all of my positions over the past month or 2. No place I'm particularly interested in moving to now. I'm still long AAPL, but the position is big already. I'm reluctant to add more to it unless I can get it at 430. Think I'm just going to sit on the sidelines for a bit and wait for a good entry point on a few of the stocks I'm watching.
The Official Trading Thread
- Thread starter mGrunin
- Start date
A look into what happened today:
Apple:
Apple rallied again today// +$6.23 (1.42%) I was holding calls overnight, and you would think that I would have racked in some solid gains, but that was not the case. Let me reiterate exactly what Merezza said above. If you plan to buy or sell options, you must understand how they are priced and what moves them. The option price; known as premium depends on several variables. These variables are known as greeks. You must understand what each greek does if you want to trade options.
The four major ones are detla, gamma, theta and vega. They decide how much your premium moves when the stock moves. Today on my Apple options I made very little gains because of vega. Vega is a greek that is influenced by the implied volatility on your options. If you are buying (going long) on your options, you are always long vega. Which means that if IV goes up for the options, then you will make money on just that. Yep, exactly. You do not need stock movement to make money on your options, you can have instant gains if the IV increases. Unfortunately there is a negative to it as well, if IV drops, then your option premium loses value just like that.
I purchased the Apple calls yesterday when Apple was dropping. Keep in mind that IV tends to increase when the market is pulling back. Well when the markets were pushing up today, and Apple decided to consolidate in the same area, the IV dropped pretty harshly. This sucked all my gains away. I literally closed those Apple calls for about 5-10% gain even though the stock went up 1% since entry.
Typically theta is the major greek you need to worry about when you are holding weekly options, but I selectively chose an expiration and strike that wasn't as badly affected by theta. Looks like vega caught up to me either way.
Is there a way to combat this? Course there is, which is why I love options. Once you grasp the concept of the greeks, you can create a vega neutral position. In other words, a move on IV will not affect your position at all. Same can be done for all the other greeks.
Why did I close all my Apple positions today? Volume indicates that it is running out of steam at this level. Today was actually the lowest volume we have seen since the bounce of $385 two weeks ago. I am obviously a huge fan of volume and use it as an indicator when it comes to my entries and exits. We are also once again overbrought on the RSI daily. Does this mean we will definitely pullback tomorrow? Nope. But I do not want to have naked positions on the market unless I am very positive about its next movement. Right now I am not.
Google:
I have been making excellent calls on Google for the past few months. I called a buy on it when it was a hair below $800 last week and today the stock finished at $829.61. I am not seeing any serious resistance until $844. I did not get a chance to part take in any of this run up.
Amazon:
Remember yesterday I mentioned that you can pick up scalps when it bounces of $245. Take a look at today's chart:
We had a beautiful bounce on that $245 zone today. The stock was down 1% at the open, hit $245, reversed all the loses and went up 1.74% since yesterday's close. Very nice. Again, if you want to buy puts, wait for a break below $245.
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What do I have open going into tomorrow? Only my non-directional spreads.
I have a vertical straddle that I opened last week that is expiring tomorrow. That position will be expiring at a 25% overall gain. I also have a diagonal spread in SPX tomorrow where the short legs will be expiring. I will be manually closing my short legs and my long legs. What the markets do tomorrow does not matter to me. They can go up 1.5% or down 1.5% and I will still make money on my SPX spread. Actually I will make more money than it is currently sitting at. At the moment the position is at a 10% gain, if S&P can move up 1% tomorrow or move down 1% tomorrow, then I will pull in a 50% gain on the position. There is a great possibility with this since we have job numbers in the morning. Should give us a volatile day.
That is all I have to say for now. Happy Trading.
Apple:
Apple rallied again today// +$6.23 (1.42%) I was holding calls overnight, and you would think that I would have racked in some solid gains, but that was not the case. Let me reiterate exactly what Merezza said above. If you plan to buy or sell options, you must understand how they are priced and what moves them. The option price; known as premium depends on several variables. These variables are known as greeks. You must understand what each greek does if you want to trade options.
The four major ones are detla, gamma, theta and vega. They decide how much your premium moves when the stock moves. Today on my Apple options I made very little gains because of vega. Vega is a greek that is influenced by the implied volatility on your options. If you are buying (going long) on your options, you are always long vega. Which means that if IV goes up for the options, then you will make money on just that. Yep, exactly. You do not need stock movement to make money on your options, you can have instant gains if the IV increases. Unfortunately there is a negative to it as well, if IV drops, then your option premium loses value just like that.
I purchased the Apple calls yesterday when Apple was dropping. Keep in mind that IV tends to increase when the market is pulling back. Well when the markets were pushing up today, and Apple decided to consolidate in the same area, the IV dropped pretty harshly. This sucked all my gains away. I literally closed those Apple calls for about 5-10% gain even though the stock went up 1% since entry.
Typically theta is the major greek you need to worry about when you are holding weekly options, but I selectively chose an expiration and strike that wasn't as badly affected by theta. Looks like vega caught up to me either way.
Is there a way to combat this? Course there is, which is why I love options. Once you grasp the concept of the greeks, you can create a vega neutral position. In other words, a move on IV will not affect your position at all. Same can be done for all the other greeks.
Why did I close all my Apple positions today? Volume indicates that it is running out of steam at this level. Today was actually the lowest volume we have seen since the bounce of $385 two weeks ago. I am obviously a huge fan of volume and use it as an indicator when it comes to my entries and exits. We are also once again overbrought on the RSI daily. Does this mean we will definitely pullback tomorrow? Nope. But I do not want to have naked positions on the market unless I am very positive about its next movement. Right now I am not.
Google:
I have been making excellent calls on Google for the past few months. I called a buy on it when it was a hair below $800 last week and today the stock finished at $829.61. I am not seeing any serious resistance until $844. I did not get a chance to part take in any of this run up.
Amazon:
Remember yesterday I mentioned that you can pick up scalps when it bounces of $245. Take a look at today's chart:
We had a beautiful bounce on that $245 zone today. The stock was down 1% at the open, hit $245, reversed all the loses and went up 1.74% since yesterday's close. Very nice. Again, if you want to buy puts, wait for a break below $245.
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What do I have open going into tomorrow? Only my non-directional spreads.
I have a vertical straddle that I opened last week that is expiring tomorrow. That position will be expiring at a 25% overall gain. I also have a diagonal spread in SPX tomorrow where the short legs will be expiring. I will be manually closing my short legs and my long legs. What the markets do tomorrow does not matter to me. They can go up 1.5% or down 1.5% and I will still make money on my SPX spread. Actually I will make more money than it is currently sitting at. At the moment the position is at a 10% gain, if S&P can move up 1% tomorrow or move down 1% tomorrow, then I will pull in a 50% gain on the position. There is a great possibility with this since we have job numbers in the morning. Should give us a volatile day.
That is all I have to say for now. Happy Trading.
partial to LNKD calls on the earnings crash, UGA Calls(way oversold gas prices will catch-up if market keeps rallying like it is), and AMZN (oversold relative to market)
I would go 100% full long if the market drops on bad job numbers. that's is a high probability winning trade
I would go 100% full long if the market drops on bad job numbers. that's is a high probability winning trade
I would also like to mention that S&P set a new all-time high. This is very bullish because since its all-time high two weeks ago, it set two more records. It has not broken the 1600 level, but it is coming very close. Literally less than a quarter of a percent away.
Here is the chart dating back to the drop from Obama's election. It has been respecting this rising support VERY well. Two weeks ago when we had the 10% drop in Gold, everyone was saying that the equity markets will be tumbling down. That this is that black sawn. Well the equity markets did pull back, but this rising support held S&P up beautifully:
If S&P were to drop again right now harshly, then there should be solid support at the 1560 level. Which means, if you short, you cover before it hits there. If you want to go long, you want for it to bounce there. But then again, that is only if it does drop. What do I think will happen? I have no point to guess because it will be complete speculation since we have major reports tomorrow. A great job report will have us pushing through 1600. A bad job report will pull us back, and in that case I would not be surprised to see that 1560 being tested within a couple days.
Here is the chart dating back to the drop from Obama's election. It has been respecting this rising support VERY well. Two weeks ago when we had the 10% drop in Gold, everyone was saying that the equity markets will be tumbling down. That this is that black sawn. Well the equity markets did pull back, but this rising support held S&P up beautifully:
If S&P were to drop again right now harshly, then there should be solid support at the 1560 level. Which means, if you short, you cover before it hits there. If you want to go long, you want for it to bounce there. But then again, that is only if it does drop. What do I think will happen? I have no point to guess because it will be complete speculation since we have major reports tomorrow. A great job report will have us pushing through 1600. A bad job report will pull us back, and in that case I would not be surprised to see that 1560 being tested within a couple days.
I would only go long on the markets if it bounces of 1560.
Edit: I might have to agree with you on the LNKD calls. Just read the report. They had a beat on earnings and revenue but their guidance was poor. The stock is down 10% in the aftermarket. I believe that is unjust; an overreaction. It can very well reverse at least half of those loses tomorrow intraday (unless we have a bad jobs report). Even then, I believe the low of the day is already set in with that aftermarket.
Looking over some notes, I just passed my 1 year anniversary of trading. I began on April 2012. It wasn't until late in May that I begin options though.
Just landed on one of the screenshots I had from Apple's run up last August. This is what I am looking from Apple once we can get confirmation of lift off. While it is in the $400 level it is anyone's game.
That was just the daily. Two separate brokerages in that screenshot.
Just landed on one of the screenshots I had from Apple's run up last August. This is what I am looking from Apple once we can get confirmation of lift off. While it is in the $400 level it is anyone's game.
That was just the daily. Two separate brokerages in that screenshot.
Job reports came in positive in the morning and it rallied the markets. S&P broke through 1600 like a knife through butter. It quickly reached its high at 1618 but pulled down slightly to the 1614 level. Dow Jones also temporarily broke through 15,000 before dropping down to 14,973 at the close.
Apple had a great pre-market move of +$6 but unfortunately the stock did not travel that much higher. It actually traded between $450-$451 the whole day before dropping down to $449.98 on the close. Volume was even weaker today at 12 million shares traded. Volume has been dropping more and more for the last four days. Each day lower than the prior day. Looks like Apple might be losing some steam here and might need a pullback to the $430 before pushing back up again.
Google was magnificent today. The stock rallied nearly 2% to finish at $845. Earlier this week I mentioned that a resistance level rests at $844 and the the stock closed off just there.
I pointed out earlier this week that Apple should see $440 and Google should see $840 this week. I was right on both accords.
I did not have any activity on the markets today except my spreads that expired. I have no positions heading into the weekend. I finished this week being up 25% on my portfolio. Cannot complain.
Apple had a great pre-market move of +$6 but unfortunately the stock did not travel that much higher. It actually traded between $450-$451 the whole day before dropping down to $449.98 on the close. Volume was even weaker today at 12 million shares traded. Volume has been dropping more and more for the last four days. Each day lower than the prior day. Looks like Apple might be losing some steam here and might need a pullback to the $430 before pushing back up again.
Google was magnificent today. The stock rallied nearly 2% to finish at $845. Earlier this week I mentioned that a resistance level rests at $844 and the the stock closed off just there.
I pointed out earlier this week that Apple should see $440 and Google should see $840 this week. I was right on both accords.
I did not have any activity on the markets today except my spreads that expired. I have no positions heading into the weekend. I finished this week being up 25% on my portfolio. Cannot complain.
Yes, it was a very bullish week. The fact that we set two new all time highs throughout the week only further solidified that there are plenty of buyers still around in the market.
Opening on Monday, I am quite sure that we will see a minor pullback but nothing big enough to get us under 1600 for S&P. For those that have followed the price action of when S&P first crossed 1500. It initially shot up to 1515-1520 before spending the next 2-3 weeks in the same zone. At one point dropping down to 1481.
I am bullish on Google at its current level, and midterm bullish on Apple. I believe Apple might need a rest this week and it might cause some sideways movement. $460 is where the 100 SMA currently is. That is a big level to cross over. The last time we were above the 100 SMA was on October 22nd 2012, when the stock was priced at $625. The last time Apple spent so much time under the 100 SMA was in early 2009. When it finally broke above it at ($92) (March 2009), it rallied to close at $210 by the end of the year.
Opening on Monday, I am quite sure that we will see a minor pullback but nothing big enough to get us under 1600 for S&P. For those that have followed the price action of when S&P first crossed 1500. It initially shot up to 1515-1520 before spending the next 2-3 weeks in the same zone. At one point dropping down to 1481.
I am bullish on Google at its current level, and midterm bullish on Apple. I believe Apple might need a rest this week and it might cause some sideways movement. $460 is where the 100 SMA currently is. That is a big level to cross over. The last time we were above the 100 SMA was on October 22nd 2012, when the stock was priced at $625. The last time Apple spent so much time under the 100 SMA was in early 2009. When it finally broke above it at ($92) (March 2009), it rallied to close at $210 by the end of the year.
Ameritrade.
How did the Google Call position from last week turn out for you. Probably 200% gain?
Two weeks ago for a client I purchased the MAY 2 830 Calls @ $5.36. Sold them this morning for $23.54. Came out to 339% gain.
Right now I am holding onto a few naked Apple calls & also sold a $455/$450 put spread for this week's expiration.
Up 40%, I sold them Wednesday. I wish I would of held on to them until experiation.
Picked up $15 May call options on MBI. Huge short position, expecting a rally tomorrow as well.
Nice. When I get home later today I will take a closer look to MBI. Looks like it had a ridiculous spike of 45%. Unfortunately almost all of it was in the premarket.
Regarding Apple, it is looking very strong. We are overbrought to a very high level on RSI but keep in mind that dividends are next week. Investors usually do not drop their shares before a dividend, typically it is the opposite. Investors try to accumulate shares for ex-div day. If we can gap up again tomorrow in the premarket, that would be great. I will pull the exact % for today's performance later tonight.
Regarding Apple, it is looking very strong. We are overbrought to a very high level on RSI but keep in mind that dividends are next week. Investors usually do not drop their shares before a dividend, typically it is the opposite. Investors try to accumulate shares for ex-div day. If we can gap up again tomorrow in the premarket, that would be great. I will pull the exact % for today's performance later tonight.
Finally got a chance to settle down. Lets cover today's market. The overall markets were mixed, Dow Jones was down .03%, S&P was up 0.19% and Nasdaq was up 0.42%. The major reason why S&P + Nasdaq were up was because of Apple and Google rallying.
Early in the morning Apple was seeing +$7 in the premarket, this is over a full percent gain. I had no positions held over the weekend, and I only got into calls at the open. This was a good entry because at the close of the day the position was up 23%. Near one of its highs for the day I added a minor position for this week's weekly. The consolidation that the stock faced and coming a bit under the entry led that position to go slightly into the negative; 15%. This position is considerably smaller than the position opened at entry.
Apple closed at $460.71 today, and it was crucial that it holds $460 into the close. Intraday it had a great support at $460 so that was a good thing to see as well. The next major resistance level is $464 which is where the 50 SMA is located.
Volume today was also better than the prior two days which is a good thing. 17.7m shares traded which places it slightly above the daily average.
I am holding my positions overnight. Generally I am not a fan of doing so, but since for the last 4-5 green days, Apple has had 75% of its move in the premarket, it is a good risk vs reward play.
How about Google? Well...it is doing fucking awesome. Unfortunately I am not making a killing on it even though it is a regularly covered stock in this thread, I still get a few nibbles here and there intraday. What makes things a bit worse is knowing that I sold too early in the day, losing out on probably another 25% gain. I exited the intraday position on Google at 20% gain.
The nice thing about its movement today is not that it has set another all-time high, but the very last minute it set ANOTHER high. That is always a very bullish indicator. Generally when a stock rallies as heavy as Google has, there will generally be profit taking towards the end of the day. Especially after moving 1.80% throughout the day. That was not the case, buyers kept stepping in. We might not be seeing the top for Google at all. This is becoming a similar play to Apple where if you see a green open, buy calls right now and not fear a reversal.
It is still possible to locate a resistance and support level. This is a 2 year chart. The rising resistance is at the $875 level so we could possible see Google hitting it before some serious pullback occurs. If it does pull back, there is solid support around $790.
* Took a 3.8% overall gain on my portfolio today.
Early in the morning Apple was seeing +$7 in the premarket, this is over a full percent gain. I had no positions held over the weekend, and I only got into calls at the open. This was a good entry because at the close of the day the position was up 23%. Near one of its highs for the day I added a minor position for this week's weekly. The consolidation that the stock faced and coming a bit under the entry led that position to go slightly into the negative; 15%. This position is considerably smaller than the position opened at entry.
Apple closed at $460.71 today, and it was crucial that it holds $460 into the close. Intraday it had a great support at $460 so that was a good thing to see as well. The next major resistance level is $464 which is where the 50 SMA is located.
Volume today was also better than the prior two days which is a good thing. 17.7m shares traded which places it slightly above the daily average.
I am holding my positions overnight. Generally I am not a fan of doing so, but since for the last 4-5 green days, Apple has had 75% of its move in the premarket, it is a good risk vs reward play.
How about Google? Well...it is doing fucking awesome. Unfortunately I am not making a killing on it even though it is a regularly covered stock in this thread, I still get a few nibbles here and there intraday. What makes things a bit worse is knowing that I sold too early in the day, losing out on probably another 25% gain. I exited the intraday position on Google at 20% gain.
The nice thing about its movement today is not that it has set another all-time high, but the very last minute it set ANOTHER high. That is always a very bullish indicator. Generally when a stock rallies as heavy as Google has, there will generally be profit taking towards the end of the day. Especially after moving 1.80% throughout the day. That was not the case, buyers kept stepping in. We might not be seeing the top for Google at all. This is becoming a similar play to Apple where if you see a green open, buy calls right now and not fear a reversal.
It is still possible to locate a resistance and support level. This is a 2 year chart. The rising resistance is at the $875 level so we could possible see Google hitting it before some serious pullback occurs. If it does pull back, there is solid support around $790.
* Took a 3.8% overall gain on my portfolio today.
The last thing to mention, I do have a short vertical put position with Apple that I will hold to this Friday. I sold the $455P and brought the $450P. Breakeven is $453. I need Apple to stay above $453 by the end of Friday for a 50% gain on the position.
Funny thing I noticed is the activity in the BitCoin thread back when it was running up versus the activity in this thread. Many members were making such a big deal about buying the coins, and making 50% return in a week's time. How it was viewed as those that missed that rally missed the easiest bucks in their lifetime. All while they could have been pulling in 3-4x better gains every single day with Apple and Google for the past 2 weeks.
Funny thing I noticed is the activity in the BitCoin thread back when it was running up versus the activity in this thread. Many members were making such a big deal about buying the coins, and making 50% return in a week's time. How it was viewed as those that missed that rally missed the easiest bucks in their lifetime. All while they could have been pulling in 3-4x better gains every single day with Apple and Google for the past 2 weeks.