The Official Trading Thread
- Thread starter mGrunin
- Start date
Nice. Please make sure you did your own research when it came to whether you should enter or not. Possibly you did, I do not know, but this goes to everyone. Do not enter a position just because I did. Make sure you do your own research and it coincides with my view. Not all the trades I post are real time, so if I exit a position, you might not know for a while. Make sure you understand when you would want to exit and so on.
It looks like at 3:00 PM the markets had a sell-off, we came down a bit. Google is still holding onto $820 like a magnet.
IMHO,i would rotate $ out of the outperforming tech stocks (GOOG, AAPL) and buy calls in DIA & SPY for a big rally this week and dow 15000 just around the corder
the odds of the market going much higher in the short term are higher than the odds of those tech stocks going higher, 2 cents
the odds of the market going much higher in the short term are higher than the odds of those tech stocks going higher, 2 cents
I just picked up MAY 2 13 1585 puts on SPX. I need this overnight hedge for my Apple and Google positions. We are right near the top for S&P and I feel we are not yet ready to break out. I am fairly sure this will not be the last time in the next couple days that we see 1580-1600 zone for S&P.
I also plan to close my Apple Calls from last Friday at the close. I will leave the new ones I opened earlier today open. If I we open in the green tomorrow, then I will accumulate more contracts.
I also plan to close my Apple Calls from last Friday at the close. I will leave the new ones I opened earlier today open. If I we open in the green tomorrow, then I will accumulate more contracts.
Thank you for your opinion. I actually share an opposing view. I feel we are more likely to tumble down from these levels than Google or Apple are at their current levels. The last time we hit 1597 (two weeks ago) on S&P we fall down to 1545 in 3 days.
If we get a clean break above 1600 then I will close the shorts.
People hate on threads like because (at least so far) they have not been about investing in stocks but rather trading and trading options. In the long run, the vast majority of options traders do not beat market average. Most people don't even break even - that's just the nature of options. I'm not saying it can't be done but it's not a good place for someone just "pondering investing in stocks" should make as their first stop.
If you want to get started with individual stock picking, try the following:
Pick 5 good companies all in different sectors.
3 of the companies have good cash flow and a good dividend. Enroll in the dividend reinvestment program and let those dividends roll into the stock. I recommend a big bank stock (I'm partial to WFC, though I sold mine after the recent run up), a consumer products company (JNJ, P&G), telecomm (T, VZ), perhaps pharma (MRK, PFE, BMY). These will be consistent winners producing ~10% gains/annually (should you actually let the DRIP run). These stocks ensure steady gains over the years even when your growth stocks aren't doing so well.
2 of the companies should already be well established companies that still have growth left that you KNOW are going to be winners, eventually. Think GOOG, AMZN, CMG. These are the kinds of stocks that can really make your year should you get a big run. Don't put money in these though if you think you might need it within the next 5 years. Sometimes excitement around a stock can fade (and the price crash) even though the company underneath remains solid. It will recover over time if you picked good companies that make consistent gains year over year.
Picking your 2 growth stocks accurately requires you not to be a mongoloid that has your head so far up your own ass you can't actually see how consumer interests are shifting over time. The key thing to remember here is that technology only moves forward. It NEVER goes backwards. There are people out there saying that blackberry is the next big growth opportunity. If you think everyone's gonna drop their iOS/android devices and go back to blackberry, stay the fuck out of the stock market because you're an idiot. If you think that everyone's going to stop eating at chipotle because taco bell hired a fake celebrity chef to peddle their new flavor of dog food, stay out of the stock market.
As far as my own personal trades go (non options), I'm holding facebook (FB) going into earnings on Wednesday. I think the report will be favorable. If the stock pops, I'm locking in my profits @ 31$/share. If the stock tanks, I'll buy more to cost average down and hold till next quarter. They'll get it right eventually at which point I'll cash in and move my money elsewhere.
Outstanding. Well done.
Some institutional research in minutes ago echoing your actions:
"""""Apple shares peak to trough drop was nearly 45 % over the last several months. We now believe shares are oversold, under-loved and ripe for a mean reversion trade.
Potential Catalysts
· Stock trades with a PE of 10.70x Cy13 EPS consensus of $39.90
· Apple will to return to shareholders by the end of 2015 $100b thru $40b in dividends and $60B in stock buybacks. There is room for this to increase.
· Apple still has international carrier expansion opportunities in front of them with market leaders such as NTT DoCoMo and China Mobile.
· A lower priced iPhone will to be shipped later this year.
· There are very low expectations in regards to Apple’s new product pipeline; however an Apple TV still could be a positive catalyst by the 2013 holiday season.
· The euphoria around this name has clearly subsided as evidenced by the numerous price target reductions over the last several months.""""
Martin, I do not want to derail your thread with my question.. but I also don't want to badger you with a PM.
Whats your view on more long term safer strategies in stocks.. stuff like "Dogs of the Dow" method and other generalized methods.
I know this might not be your specialty and you would rather stick to what you do now, but if you had to give generalized advice about where to stock pile your money in investing like this ( my other options are all used up now ), whats your take on taking money and putting it away for some time? I've been putting things in index funds as well as a passive means, but I am looking at other ideas too right now as a "hobby" to give me more action.
Whats your view on more long term safer strategies in stocks.. stuff like "Dogs of the Dow" method and other generalized methods.
I know this might not be your specialty and you would rather stick to what you do now, but if you had to give generalized advice about where to stock pile your money in investing like this ( my other options are all used up now ), whats your take on taking money and putting it away for some time? I've been putting things in index funds as well as a passive means, but I am looking at other ideas too right now as a "hobby" to give me more action.
I am not the best person to give advice on long-term investments. What you are looking for is someone that follows fundamentals closely. It seems that maintain would be able to provide better recommendations.
The only time I recommended a long term play was with Sprint eight months ago. It was trading at $2.50 back then, currently above $7.00.
You have to define those levels before you enter your trade. Never enter a position without an exit plan. It is pretty clear that I am big on technical trading. I draw out clear levels of support and resistance and typically the support line becomes my stop loss.
On the upside, I typically get out of my position in pieces. Never a good thing to be greedy, but it is highly advisable to squeeze a great deal of gains from each of your right trades since that will have you come up on top in regards to your P/L at the end of the year.
Just like today I closed some of my Apple contracts. Locked in the gains while I still have positions heading into tomorrow incase we have premarket movement.
Options before earnings are a straight gamble.
What I am seeing is a triple bottom at $25 and a double top at $32.50.
Personally I would stay on the sidelines for the report. If it beats and rises, then wait for it to break past $32.50. Then it will be a solid long. Similar thing on the downside, if it falls under $25, then it is an easy short down to $24 instantly.
Lets see what Apple did for us today.
Happy Trading.
- From last Friday I was holding onto MAY2 13 420 CALLS. I brought the options at $6.15; I exited the trade near the close at $13.875. That is a 125% return.
- At the open I purchased MAY 13 425 CALLS. Brought the options at $8.20. The current market price is $12.20. Currently sitting at a 48% return.
- Later in the day I purchased MAY2 434 CALLS. Brought the options at $4.65. The current market price is $5.75. Currently sitting at 23% return.
- Even later in the day I purchased MAY2 430 CALLS. Brought the options at $8.30. The current market price is $7.95. Currently sitting at a 5% loss.
- Right off the bat, notice how we finally broke through that downward resistance. Best of all, this was done on strong volume! Once again we had higher than average volume today.
- The battleground today was at the 50 day SMA. That is the green line. We bounced off it a few times today (keep in mind this is a daily chart), and were not able to break through it. That is the next goal for the bulls. If you missed today's rally and are looking for the next entry as a bull, that line is your entry! If we break above it, you would want to buy.
- We are still not overbrought on RSI which is great. We can possibly see more upside without any corrective selling.
- We held $430 like a magnet. A close above it was crucial for the bulls, and just that happened.
Happy Trading.
Agree with these sentiments. However, I am long FB going into earnings. If the report is negative, I'll add to my position as it goes down to decrease my average price per share. If it is positive, I'll put in a stop/loss at 31 and see where it lands in a week, then sell. I think its a good long over the next 1-2 yrs, so whether I make $$ or get a lower price point I'm okay with it.
Added more Apple Calls!
Watching Google for more Calls here closely!
Removed SPX Put at breakeven!
Edit: Looks like I should have held onto those SPX puts since the markets fall down. Apple and Google are green right now while SPX is in the red. Nailed those 3 trades pretty well.
Watching Google for more Calls here closely!
Removed SPX Put at breakeven!
Edit: Looks like I should have held onto those SPX puts since the markets fall down. Apple and Google are green right now while SPX is in the red. Nailed those 3 trades pretty well.
I question FB short term and long term. The CEO already cashed out billions at $38. That alone is enough for me to lose interest in the stock.
Zuck already won, he's a genius for catching lightning in the bottle with FB - but he's anything but a corporate titan and that's what FB would need, at the very least, before it might become compelling. It might be interesting to trade, for some, but I have no interest in owning the stock.
Sure, the CEO is not my favorite, but that's not enough to deter me from the positive signals I see. Facebook has 3 primary ways to increase their earnings: boost pageviews/users, skim $$ off the top of digital goods in apps, and to increase their CTR/CPC of their ads.
Alexa site info seems to indicate that pageviews/users are as good as ever, appdata.com confirms the number of daily/monthly app users is as high as ever, and the CPC of facebook ads right now is as high as its been outside of Q4.
The number one thing that analysts will be looking for when it comes to Facebook is mobile growth. That was the main reason why it first had that massive downtrend from its IPO price and now for the past few quarters has remained the prime topic. The other week Google posted a handsome increase in revenue from mobile advertisements, and now analysts are expecting the same from Facebook
If I had to pick a direction for Facebook, it would be towards the upside in the immediate future.
If I had to pick a direction for Facebook, it would be towards the upside in the immediate future.