i learned this the hard way. and i'm a value guy, one who researches companies to their bare nuts. i tried technical, and it was hideous. pure luck.
The Official Trading Thread
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i learned this the hard way. and i'm a value guy, one who researches companies to their bare nuts. i tried technical, and it was hideous. pure luck.
Technical analysis is bullshit for the same reason playing poker is. Most people dont stick to their gameplan. They try to cut losses short and cash out early.
Its the same reason you try to bet low when youre sitting on a set and the other guys got a flushdraw. You want his money. On the river you see yourself cursing about his unbelievable luck. Trading is the same.
On the other hand side, youve got mathematical models indicating that technical analysis is just playing roulette. The fees eat your money while youre just 50-50 on your decisions. The problem with those decisions is that on the 50 correct percent, you cash out early and wait for losses to be recovered, skewing the odds dramatically against you.
mGrunin shows you fancy charts all the time but thats not what hes doing to make decisions. He might be looking at them for a filter, but thats not the entirety of his game.
Its the same reason you try to bet low when youre sitting on a set and the other guys got a flushdraw. You want his money. On the river you see yourself cursing about his unbelievable luck. Trading is the same.
On the other hand side, youve got mathematical models indicating that technical analysis is just playing roulette. The fees eat your money while youre just 50-50 on your decisions. The problem with those decisions is that on the 50 correct percent, you cash out early and wait for losses to be recovered, skewing the odds dramatically against you.
mGrunin shows you fancy charts all the time but thats not what hes doing to make decisions. He might be looking at them for a filter, but thats not the entirety of his game.
Sorry for the lack of activity on my part in this thread, I am still trading every single day. I am just active on different channels since I didn't see much interest on WickedFire.
To answer the technical analysis question, to me it is not bullshit but at the same time it is not as clear cut as charts put them out to be just because when you're in a position - emotions come to play. Majority of traders fail because they cut winners too soon, and let losers run for a while.
Let me show you an example of technical trading for today. So yesterday on my forum I posted the following chart on Priceline:
The focus on the chart should be on the $1,055.99 support. In several prior instances, PCLN would go right down to about that level before reversing back up. As a technical trader, this was the time to open a long position. How did PCLN perform today? Let's make a new chart with today's trading day included:
Notice how the stock opened higher today, sold back down to the same support level, before finally making its way higher. It went from $1,055 all the way to 1,075.00 today. Even better, you see where it reached the top today and then sold right back down? Look at the prior day on the 28th, it hit that exact top and sold off as well.
So this is a perfect example of where the support level held strong, and the resistance level held strong.
Many things fall into into technical traders, there are folks that stick to moving averages, fib lines, overbrought/oversold indicators, volume, etc. It really comes down to what makes the trader money. There are traders are successfully use moving averages to enter and exit positions and there are traders that utilize them unsuccessfully. My main focus is trendlines.
To answer the technical analysis question, to me it is not bullshit but at the same time it is not as clear cut as charts put them out to be just because when you're in a position - emotions come to play. Majority of traders fail because they cut winners too soon, and let losers run for a while.
Let me show you an example of technical trading for today. So yesterday on my forum I posted the following chart on Priceline:
The focus on the chart should be on the $1,055.99 support. In several prior instances, PCLN would go right down to about that level before reversing back up. As a technical trader, this was the time to open a long position. How did PCLN perform today? Let's make a new chart with today's trading day included:
Notice how the stock opened higher today, sold back down to the same support level, before finally making its way higher. It went from $1,055 all the way to 1,075.00 today. Even better, you see where it reached the top today and then sold right back down? Look at the prior day on the 28th, it hit that exact top and sold off as well.
So this is a perfect example of where the support level held strong, and the resistance level held strong.
Many things fall into into technical traders, there are folks that stick to moving averages, fib lines, overbrought/oversold indicators, volume, etc. It really comes down to what makes the trader money. There are traders are successfully use moving averages to enter and exit positions and there are traders that utilize them unsuccessfully. My main focus is trendlines.
SYNA killer bounce already. Boom.
As far as technical analysis, I am of the opinion that TA is just one of the many tools in the utility belt needed to be a successful trader. Personally I pick an industry with a clear general trend first based on current events, technological shifts and developments, etc. Then I screen out strong (or weak for shorts) companies, then identify opportune price levels based on technicals and trade accordingly. I spend more time on EDGAR than I do on charts, but charts are still extremely useful. Trading needs to be a very complete process to see any kind of sustainable success.
The poker reference earlier in this thread, well. . . I don't know what to tell you. One of my best friends pays his entire college tuition with poker winnings. Just like poker, trading is not about always winning it is about winning more than you lose. I have supported a very comfortable lifestyle for years almost purely with trading returns. Play the numbers right and you will end up on top.
As far as technical analysis, I am of the opinion that TA is just one of the many tools in the utility belt needed to be a successful trader. Personally I pick an industry with a clear general trend first based on current events, technological shifts and developments, etc. Then I screen out strong (or weak for shorts) companies, then identify opportune price levels based on technicals and trade accordingly. I spend more time on EDGAR than I do on charts, but charts are still extremely useful. Trading needs to be a very complete process to see any kind of sustainable success.
The poker reference earlier in this thread, well. . . I don't know what to tell you. One of my best friends pays his entire college tuition with poker winnings. Just like poker, trading is not about always winning it is about winning more than you lose. I have supported a very comfortable lifestyle for years almost purely with trading returns. Play the numbers right and you will end up on top.
Really interested article about day trading and life:
11 Or 12 Things I Learned About Life From Day Trading Millions Of Dollars | TechCrunch
I love reading this guy's stuff, he is so interesting
11 Or 12 Things I Learned About Life From Day Trading Millions Of Dollars | TechCrunch
I love reading this guy's stuff, he is so interesting
Yep, James Altucher is one of the few authors who actually puts a different perspective on the table. I found out about him a year or two ago when guerilla linked to one of his blog posts.
After each sentence, I was like "I can't fucking believe he actually said this" and while I don't always agree with what he writes, I love the fact that he isn't afraid of being brutally honest with himself and others.
Nowadays, I visit his blog (James Altucher dot com) about 2-3 times/month. A lot of people make the mistake of only reading stuff written by authors they agree with (like gold investors who only follow Peter Schiff or QE enthusiasts who only follow Krugman), I've been guilty of this myself which is why I'm constantly looking for articles/videos/whatever which help me see things from a different perspective.
Therefore aliens.
I have been thinking of doing a pubic challenge. Turning $10,000 into $100,000 in four months. I chose $10,000 as the starting capital since I believe the majority of people have $10,000 to begin with, so the study can relate closer to them.
If there is enough interest/demand in such a challenge/study, I can put it the idea into works and get things setup. There is no guarantee that I would be successful, but I feel confident enough to attempt it publicly. Obviously all trades would be posted real-time and everything would be done via video. It will also be the first time in over a year that WickedFire would see my face again - hah.
What do you guys think?
If there is enough interest/demand in such a challenge/study, I can put it the idea into works and get things setup. There is no guarantee that I would be successful, but I feel confident enough to attempt it publicly. Obviously all trades would be posted real-time and everything would be done via video. It will also be the first time in over a year that WickedFire would see my face again - hah.
What do you guys think?
With such a challenge, the post crucial trades would be the initial two trades taken. Since the risk levels would be higher than my usual, I would be utilizing the vast majority into a single trade, so the margin of error is known. It would consist of long and short positions, across any industry, but only with options.
I feel that if I can quickly get up to $30k-$40k, then it should be smooth sailing to $100k from there while reducing my capital risk. It is all about the first two trades.
I feel that if I can quickly get up to $30k-$40k, then it should be smooth sailing to $100k from there while reducing my capital risk. It is all about the first two trades.
Well, you can pull the same exact trades as I will, but obviously it is all on your risk. As I have already mentioned, there is no guarantee that I will be successful but I feel that it is a realistic goal. I have done something similar several times throughout this year.
Good to hear. Some people want to put a curse on my life for getting them into option trading, others want to praise me. Can't win them all, eh?
Only support I need is knowing there are enough interested individuals out there to see such a challenge. In this forum, it looks like SEO studies or challenges get the bulk of the attention, righteously so since this is a marketing forum.
I believe a Skype group would be possible, but I do know that Jon wouldn't be happy about moving information offsite. Which is a major reason why I have never bluntly advertised my forum in this forum. I would rather put the trades up here live (and also my forum for those that are members), and if you subscribe to either thread(s), you would receive it near real-time.
P.S Some turks hacked my forum yesterday. :crying:
