JP Grunin: From $10,000 to $100,000 in 6 months.

'Grunin trading with the money of people from this forum would end with him in an orange jumpsuit . . unless of course he keeps it under 15 people and/or $400k ;)
 


I want to wish you the best of luck but since you are putting the psychological pressure to make a 10x return in a period of 6 months you will find yourself forcing trades and such I would not expect any trader who sets such high expectations to have any such alpha in the market. You can not control the market only yourself. As a former trader I could go on and on about why this is not feasible and Paul Tudor Jones, Stevie Cohen, Jim Chanos, James Simon, and George Soros could not say with 100% confidence that they would be able to hit such lofty returns in a stated time period. Only CEO Sam Massey is capable of such returns.

Best of luck I am rooting for you just brace your nerves mi amigo.
 
Oh mgrunin you are so amazing! rub your nuts all over my face! You're so awesome! OH my god...


Some of you fags should just suck his dick already. Seriously your ass kissing is embarrassing...
 
You should sell some of the action to WF members in $100 blocks so we can all follow along and hopefully get some money! Just do it on top of the $10k and pay ppl their %'s afterwards.
 
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mGrunin said:
Thanks for the comment, these questions were bound to come up so I will gladly answer them.

I agreed to take this $10k - $100k challenge primarily because it was brought up once again. Back in December I mentioned that I might do something along these lines but I never followed through with it. Mostly because taking on such a challenge is adding extra work hours to my day. Not only do I have to place trades for an additional account now, but I have to document everything, and make videos on a daily basis. If you go to my original trading thread, you will see how two members brought it up last week, and then I finally said ok, I'll begin next week. I am just following through with my promise.

I have no call service. Every bit of content I have placed on this forum and other places has been done without charging a single cent. For anyone that was interested in receiving as close to real-time trade and idea alerts, they are signed up on my forum. When I said that there would be a delay on the trades being posted here, I am talking about a 5-10 minute delay. Keep in mind that I am not only broadcasting this challenge on WickedFire, but on a trading social network known as stocktwits, my forum, twitter and WickedFire. Since WF is the least geared towards the trading industry, it makes more sense to have the trade alerts go out first at places where there is a greater concentration of traders.

Why go through with all of these public charades? When I am success with this challenge, it could possibly open new doors for me in the industry. One thing I learned from AM is that connections matter over everything. If you keep to yourself, if you never take part in mastermind groups, then you limit yourself. I can either sit here alone and make trades on my account and make money, or broadcast and possibly put my foot in the door for other opportunities down the line. In other words, just trying to create a name for myself at my own expense.

Lastly, regarding the bad calls that I have made, yes, I could have done better in following up with them. Just that unfortunately I was receiving a completely different reaction on my correct calls. In the trading thread I mentioned above, this past week I was right on practically all the trades and not a single comment was made about that. But when I pull a wrong trade, the thread goes into second page. At times WickedFire really carries that "Hope you fail." vibe. One way I have learned to deal with is to ignore the comments.

As I did say in my opening post, every trade in this challenge will be documented - good or bad. There won't be a single dollar flowing in or out of the account without you guys knowing.
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Two members may have brought it back up, but going back to your thread, you originally posed the challenge for yourself h t t p://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/172568-official-trading-thread-14.html#post2137839 (The Official Trading Thread)

I apologize if you don't have a call service - I assumed when you said 'private' twitter, it was something only certain people could see, most likely having to pay for it, and that's my fault. You did post this recently on your own blog though h t t p://www.winningportfolio.com/showthread.php?1072-Opinion-on-Paid-Subscription (Opinion on Paid Subscription). Nothing wrong with it, just again transparency. I may be completely wrong about your ultimate motives with this challenge, and if I am I apologize for it now.

If you're doing this for recognition and connections that's completely legit, I'm just not sure what that would ultimately lead to specifically for trading and especially here on WF. Goldman and prop houses call you up wanting you to trade their money? You start your own fund? If that's the case, this challenge is not the best way of doing it, as they will more than likely want to see stable, consistent returns rather than going for broke type equity curves. You will have a shot at making a name for yourself if you're successful though, it just might be more akin to Victor Niederhoffer or Timothy Sykes. Stocktwits is good, but if you really want people in the industry to see this, let me suggest that you also post this challenge on elitetrader and possibly forexfactory, as there will for sure be a higher concentration of traders already in the game, in the industry, viewing it. I guarantee you the people over there would love to see this. That is legit though and connections can be powerful, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

You make a valid point about people paying attention more to your losers than your winners. I think it's extremely important though as a trader and for this challenge that you post everything, good and bad, and it sounds like you will so that's fair. Anyone who trades or is considering trading will understand no one is 100% in the market. Besides, the more heat you take from people to only prove them wrong in the end, the more the thread bumps.

Thank you for replying though. Regardless I hope you own this challenge and I'll be following. It'd be extremely cool and I think you have a decent shot at it - maybe not a 900% return, although it's of course possible, but at least being very profitable. Stay disciplined.
 
mGrunin said:
To challenge a misconception.
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I challenge bullshit.

I will personally put up any amount of money you want, and I bet you will not succeed.

Figure out a way to do it so it's fully transparent and you can't cheat, and I'll wire the money tomorrow.

I traded for years and I know 3 people that legitimately beat the market over any length of time. If I'm unlucky enough, and you're good enough to be 1 out of a million, then so be it. I'll take that bet.

Actually, I KNOW you won't succeed. I can tell from your posts. You just don't have "it".

So fuck the bullshit, what's it gonna be?

You been had any balls?
 
dsiomtw said:
I will personally put up any amount of money you want, and I bet you will not succeed.

Figure out a way to do it so it's fully transparent and you can't cheat, and I'll wire the money tomorrow.

I traded for years and I know 3 people that legitimately beat the market over any length of time. If I'm unlucky enough, and you're good enough to be 1 out of a million, then so be it. I'll take that bet.

Actually, I KNOW you won't succeed. I can tell from your posts. You just don't have "it".

So fuck the bullshit, what's it gonna be?

You been had any balls?
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ShitJustGotReal.jpg
 
To consistently beat the market over any meaningful amount of time, you need an edge. Edge comes in two flavors -

1. information edge - you have more information about a stock/commodity's supply and demand than the market in aggregate. If you have a particular insight in an industry or a drug trial of a biotech company or a particular business trend, and the market is pricing the stock the way you think is wrong, you can profit from it and "beat" the market.

2. psychological edge - the ability to buy when everyone is panicking and sell when everyone is greedily buying is tremendous. This is all about emotions and discipline.


Having said that, I think it's unlikely that you'll turn $10k into $50k in 6 months. Not impossible. You may have a unique insight about the next 6 months.

Speculating, charting, etc just doesn't work well in 99.999% of the cases. To make a fortune in the market, you must understand the fundamentals of the business underlying the stock you're betting on. This requires understanding the business, the economics and the fundamentals of that business.

I suggest you read a biography of Warren Buffett to see what I'm talking about.

Good luck.
 
davidne said:
Down to put in 5-10k as well...just a guess but I would think most people on this board as well as your forums (myself included) would like to watch you trade options as opposed to futures.
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What I might end up doing is that lets say once I grow the $10,000 into $35,000. I can send off $25,000 to be used for option trading and the remaining $10,000 for futures trading. I understand why there would be more interest in watching option trading, but at the same time the game is even harder. Not to mention that the learning curve for properly trading options is much greater for the average watcher.


beeker. said:
Two members may have brought it back up, but going back to your thread, you originally posed the challenge for yourself h t t p://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/172568-official-trading-thread-14.html#post2137839 (The Official Trading Thread)

I apologize if you don't have a call service - I assumed when you said 'private' twitter, it was something only certain people could see, most likely having to pay for it, and that's my fault. You did post this recently on your own blog though h t t p://www.winningportfolio.com/showthread.php?1072-Opinion-on-Paid-Subscription (Opinion on Paid Subscription). Nothing wrong with it, just again transparency. I may be completely wrong about your ultimate motives with this challenge, and if I am I apologize for it now.

If you're doing this for recognition and connections that's completely legit, I'm just not sure what that would ultimately lead to specifically for trading and especially here on WF. Goldman and prop houses call you up wanting you to trade their money? You start your own fund? If that's the case, this challenge is not the best way of doing it, as they will more than likely want to see stable, consistent returns rather than going for broke type equity curves. You will have a shot at making a name for yourself if you're successful though, it just might be more akin to Victor Niederhoffer or Timothy Sykes. Stocktwits is good, but if you really want people in the industry to see this, let me suggest that you also post this challenge on elitetrader and possibly forexfactory, as there will for sure be a higher concentration of traders already in the game, in the industry, viewing it. I guarantee you the people over there would love to see this. That is legit though and connections can be powerful, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

You make a valid point about people paying attention more to your losers than your winners. I think it's extremely important though as a trader and for this challenge that you post everything, good and bad, and it sounds like you will so that's fair. Anyone who trades or is considering trading will understand no one is 100% in the market. Besides, the more heat you take from people to only prove them wrong in the end, the more the thread bumps.

Thank you for replying though. Regardless I hope you own this challenge and I'll be following. It'd be extremely cool and I think you have a decent shot at it - maybe not a 900% return, although it's of course possible, but at least being very profitable. Stay disciplined.
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I understand. That thread I made on my forum was to receive some feedback and something I might further down the line. This challenge isn't connected to it by any means except have an actual public result from A-Z. Obviously if I am successful in this challenge, I would get the trading accounts audited by an accredited firm and have useful prove under my hands. Good point about elitetrader, I will likely make a thread there as well. Just that since my account there had only been used for lurking, it would come off as a brand new poster - but that would be fine.

dsiomtw said:
I challenge bullshit.

I will personally put up any amount of money you want, and I bet you will not succeed.

Figure out a way to do it so it's fully transparent and you can't cheat, and I'll wire the money tomorrow.

I traded for years and I know 3 people that legitimately beat the market over any length of time. If I'm unlucky enough, and you're good enough to be 1 out of a million, then so be it. I'll take that bet.

Actually, I KNOW you won't succeed. I can tell from your posts. You just don't have "it".

So fuck the bullshit, what's it gonna be?

You been had any balls?
Click to expand...

Simply not a good bet for me. If you wanted to take a bet against me on whether or not I can beat the markets in the six months, I'll take that bet. That is the fair way to approach this situation. But to place a bet for me to hit a 900% return? A payout of 1:1 is simply not fair since I have a large uphill battle ahead.
 
For everyone else that has offered to place in money to further increase the starting capital and get a piece of the pie, thank you for your offer but I have to decline. By going along such a proposal, it changes the context of this challenge and also adds in additional stress. I would rather go through this challenge at the risk of losing my own money than putting anyone's money at risk.
 
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