This probably would make for a very exciting weekly podcast.
Either way, congrats on making the move. Look forward to hearing about your massive success. :drinkup:
JP Grunin: From $10,000 to $100,000 in 6 months.
- Thread starter mGrunin
- Start date
This probably would make for a very exciting weekly podcast.
Either way, congrats on making the move. Look forward to hearing about your massive success. :drinkup:
I could not agree more. I believe you will actually pass your 100k goal. I love gambling, just not very good at it.
Well at least something can be learned.
This is why you use risk management kids. Good luck to mGrunin I hope he makes his challenge. But this is a really great example of how easy it is to blow a $10k account for those who cannot afford to do so.
This is why you use risk management kids. Good luck to mGrunin I hope he makes his challenge. But this is a really great example of how easy it is to blow a $10k account for those who cannot afford to do so.
One thing to consider is that mGrunin has been doing this for about 2 yrs. During that time the market hasn't gone down more than 5% that entire time!
These are the times when the market lets people gain confidence in themselves so it can really sucker punch them in the balls when the shit actually it's the fan in a bear catastrofuck market.
These are the times when the market lets people gain confidence in themselves so it can really sucker punch them in the balls when the shit actually it's the fan in a bear catastrofuck market.
options are luck/gambling unless you have an edge - judging from this you did not research very well if at all - Apple Dividend (AAPL)
you need an edge and knowledge of how the business operates does not seem to be there for you to miss this widely known dividend date...
although this is fiction this scene demonstrates a much better understanding of a business/market making it a MUCH LESS RISKIER bet - you are just gambling and getting lucky sometimes
The Peter Thiel Sesame Seed Scene From Silicon Valley Is Real!
you should re group and maybe start over... good luck
Wtf are you retardred? You know godamn well what I meant. Agree or not I couldn't care fuckin' less.
But wait, as a parting gift I have yet another movie quote... "now get your shine box."
He said from the start he trades on technicals only and ignores fundamentals. (At least in this challenge it looks like)
so would you say a dividend date set about 3 weeks ago is technical or fundamental?
Idk, I was wondering that a little myself. I'm leaning toward fundamental, because it is financial info about the company. Just like its earnings, revenue, etc...
Technical imo, and what he seems to be only focused on is the stock chart.
If you take a 1-period perspective and plug this into a black-scholes model you'll find that the option is actually priced fairly against the dividend, so he's still ok on this front.
Assuming a super-short time horizon, his trade will hinge on whether volatility will stay so high. Actual volatility spiked last month to near a high for the year, and Implied volatility followed suite in the call prices (Inb4 noobs try to tell me it didn't, calculate it for yourself because online resources are usually wrong. Google finance can't even get beta right). If volatility stays constant, he's actually got an asymmetric payoff relationship that isn't all that bad. Better than a game of Blackjack for sure though. That ivol move is kinda fubar though.
@grunin (curious): You averse to straddles?
It impacts moneyness. Share vola needs to stay high, but implied can actually drop and he still can earn on the upside. I wasn't referring to any volatility impact to the options.
I priced the 590-strike conversion at the close. It reflects a post-div fwd on AAPL of 589.23 using the closing mid on the options and shares.
My point was that Martin saw a $3 ATM premium on AAPL and wet himself. He had no clue of the dividend and resulting drop in the shares on the pay-date. Not to say they shares won't rally. But they will do so after the shares drop 2-3.
I priced the 590-strike conversion at the close. It reflects a post-div fwd on AAPL of 589.23 using the closing mid on the options and shares.
My point was that Martin saw a $3 ATM premium on AAPL and wet himself. He had no clue of the dividend and resulting drop in the shares on the pay-date. Not to say they shares won't rally. But they will do so after the shares drop 2-3.