JP Grunin: From $10,000 to $100,000 in 6 months.



Gru is disappoint
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mGrunin said:
I would rather re-open the trade with an ATM strike, or 1 strike into the money preferably as we approach Friday.
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I don't like that approach, it seems rather risky assuming they have a ton of Tesla coils..

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I'd say just brute force some mammoth tanks and take their base that way..

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@grunin - did you cash them out earlier and take a loss?

your calls just closed around $60 (mid price) which means you're down a little over $2k on your $2,556 ticket ... are you going to try and salvage what you can tomorrow or just let it ride out?
 
cassius said:
In many ways it is very much like poker. Decisions are made based on expected reactions by other participants. Unlike other forms of gambling you are not attempting to beat a system controlled by a specific set of rules governed solely by statistics. Understanding the actions and perceptions of participants is more important than pure odds.
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Trading today is like poker if at any given time a tidal wave can come in from out of nowhere and wash your hand, the pot, and the dumb ass you got beat's hand away - and once in awhile wash up a stack of chips on your lap before the cards are dealt. Your comparison is incomplete until you include the existence of unpredictable market forces that have no respect for any single trader's strategy or preparation. This phenomenon is relatively new and has rendered fundamentals-based day trading obsolete and probably taken its toll on the technical trader as well - not 100% sure on that.

But I am sure that every six months or so I find myself on WF saying to all: "you probably shouldn't trade" or at least: "trading is a young man's game".
 
@ grunin - nevermind, just saw the update on your forum. you did exit earlier and enter a new trade. Here is a breakdown for anyone curious

Running Total
Trade 1 = Long /NQ - Loss of $6119
Trade 2 = Long AAPL - Loss of $1827
Trade 3 = Short QQQ - results not in

Going to be a tough battle back, looking forward to watching.
 
I could see it now.. a new youtube vid:
Hitler is Pissed - Loses 80% in 3 days on MGrunin Trades
 
infoslob said:
Your comparison is incomplete until you include the existence of unpredictable market forces that have no respect for any single trader's strategy or preparation.
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You mean like the hand you're dealt?

I didn't mean you literally sit around a green felt table with your buddies in a smoky basement.
 
This is what happens when you try to force trades...6 month contest is almost over in a week.

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cassius said:
You mean like the hand you're dealt?

I didn't mean you literally sit around a green felt table with your buddies in a smoky basement.
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i think he means everything outside "your hand" and "other players". in poker, that's it insofar as variables, and that scenario doesn't change between overt participant actions. in market speculation, there is weather, political risk, social media, broad market movement (and other inputs that are outside the local environment) that don't sit still until the end of the hand.

stock prices move alot faster now and are influenced by alot more outside influences than they used to be in buffett's heyday.
 
cassius said:
You mean like the hand you're dealt?

I didn't mean you literally sit around a green felt table with your buddies in a smoky basement.
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I think he is pointing out that in poker it is a zero sum game. Someone loses, someone wins, but the chips stay the same.

In the markets, it isn't a zero sum game. The whole market will go down in value, diminishing the value for all involved (even if you make money in a market downturn, it still reduces the overall pool of money that is there)
 
Stocks aren't a "zero sum game" but buying derivatives (like options) is. Every dollar that Grunin loses from an option trade ends up in someone's pocket.
 
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