My Conversation with Mark Karpeles of MtGox



Will any of you be surprised if Bitcoin loses all value or dies in the immediate future (internal collapse, government intervention)?

My only main concern is that Bitcoin is the MySpace to a future coin's Facebook.

Cryptography is too disruptive of a technology to be stopped.

I feel its a ~50% shot it goes up 5-10x based on everything I know up to this point.

And I'll take those odds all day.
 
Apparently Mtgox was just hacked into by someone trying to figure out who hacked the site and stole the coins. You couldn't make this stuff up if you tried...
 
Will any of you be surprised if Bitcoin loses all value or dies in the immediate future (internal collapse, government intervention)?
Yes.

My only main concern is that Bitcoin is the MySpace to a future coin's Facebook.
Then you haven't been studying the network effect.

Tell me, what's the chance we all stop using http now and switch to a new protocol for our internets?
 
Then you haven't been studying the network effect.

Tell me, what's the chance we all stop using http now and switch to a new protocol for our internets?

I'm very aware of that meme. I'm trying to decipher how relevant that is to Bitcoin.

What has been built on it that couldn't be applied to another coin?

Bitcoin isn't a protocol for communications. http required everyone using the same protocol. Merchants and Software can easily tweak their code and accept Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and even CoinYe if they want.

Also, there weren't $100+ billion reasons for people to use another protocol over http.

Bitcoin has first mover advantage, which is always a huge plus.

But I can just as easily see them being the Napster, Netscape Navigator, Dial Up, and AOL of Cryptocurrency as I can see them completely owning the space.

Just playing devil's advocate a bit.

The space is too quick and volatile right now to even see 2-3 weeks in advance IMO.
 
I'm very aware of that meme. I'm trying to decipher how relevant that is to Bitcoin.

What has been built on it that couldn't be applied to another coin?

Bitcoin isn't a protocol for communications. http required everyone using the same protocol. Merchants and Software can easily tweak their code and accept Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and even CoinYe if they want.

Also, there wasn't $100+ billion reasons for people to use another protocol over http.

Bitcoin has first mover advantage, which is always a huge plus.

But I can just as easily see them being the Napster, Netscape Navigator, Dial Up, and AOL of Cryptocurrency as I can see them completely owning the space.

Just playing devil's advocate a bit.

The space is too quick and volatile right now to even see 2-3 weeks in advance IMO.

I think this should be something that even bitcoin fanatics should consider. I personally own bitcoin and think they have a future, but there might be better implementations of cryptocurrency that we can't even imagine yet but will be invented.

For a start, 99% of people believe deflation is bad. Whether that is true or not doesn't matter, that is the perception. An inflating cryptocurrency might have more success in getting mainstream recognition.

Or a currency that can be 100% anonymous without a tumbler.

Myspace was pretty awesome for a while and everyone loved it but a better implementation did come along. You never know.
 
Yes.


Then you haven't been studying the network effect.

Tell me, what's the chance we all stop using http now and switch to a new protocol for our internets?

What's the chance we all stop using IPv4 and switch over to IPv6?

It won't happen overnight, but it's possible, it can happen, and it will eventually happen.
 
Is that really "support?"

I wonder if taxing it makes it "legitimate" and they've been asked not to do so. I'm going to draw a parallel between this and country sovereignty. The only thing that makes a nation legitimate is other nations recognizing it as legitimate. This is also true with currencies to an extent. (but with people.)

What other reason would they have for not taxing bitcoin? I'm sure they don't actually give a shit about "supporting" currencies. I'd imagine they tax forex gains, right?

It is support, because before they were charging sales tax on any bitcoin sales. So if I setup a Bitcoin exchange, and I sold more than £80k worth of bitcoins per year, I would have to charge anyone that bought Bitcoins in the UK from me 20% VAT on top of the sale price.

That means I can't compete with the market rate, so can't feasibly operate a UK business that sells bitcoins.

It's still taxable, it just means that it's treated like other things you trade (like stocks/currencies) rather than a product. Effectively HMRC is going out of their way to make it easier to sell Bitcoins in the UK.

Now, if I ran a Bitcoin exchange in the UK I'd just pay corporation tax on my profits (as you'd expect).
I think this should be something that even bitcoin fanatics should consider. I personally own bitcoin and think they have a future, but there might be better implementations of cryptocurrency that we can't even imagine yet but will be invented.

For a start, 99% of people believe deflation is bad. Whether that is true or not doesn't matter, that is the perception. An inflating cryptocurrency might have more success in getting mainstream recognition.

Or a currency that can be 100% anonymous without a tumbler.

Myspace was pretty awesome for a while and everyone loved it but a better implementation did come along. You never know.

Yeah this is the only major risk I see with Bitcoin. The world needs what it does, but it's whether Bitcoin is the digital currency to do that, or some other currency. I think if it was another currency, it'd be a major advance on Bitcoin, rather than one of the current iterations (litecoin, doge, yada yada which are all pretty similar). Something like Ethereum.

There could of course feasibly be multiple currencies for multiple purposes too, if it's easy to exchange between them.
 
Will any of you be surprised if Bitcoin loses all value or dies in the immediate future (internal collapse, government intervention)?


The US gov spends a ton of resources enforcing dollar value around the world. Maintaining currency control is very important to them. Government "intervention" is a serious threat. They may not be able to stop bitcoin around the world, but they're really good at killing people or putting them in cages. (and thus, making bitcoin pretty unattractive in the short term.)
 
LTC was added to btc-china and it jumped from 14 to 18 (21.95) peak.

It will now swing back before it will rise again.

The whole market is on an uptrend now.
 
What has been built on it that couldn't be applied to another coin?

Pretty much all of the alt coins. :)

Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the only coin I know of that is NOT on bitcoin's blockchain is Nxt. All the other alt coins out there piggy back off the blockchain.
 
The Poloniex exchange was hacked. Some bitcoins stolen. The exchange owner is stealing 12% of all bitcoin deposits to cover the loss.

I just deposited a small amount of btc before noticing this. >_>
 
The Poloniex exchange was hacked. Some bitcoins stolen. The exchange owner is stealing 12% of all bitcoin deposits to cover the loss.

I just deposited a small amount of btc before noticing this. >_>

BUT HEY GUYS BITCOIN IS RISING! IT'S AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BUY!!
 
I think they should make poopcoins. You shit a turd and petrify it in the sun, but it has to have the magic microbial content to be authentic. Unlike bitcoins, there is no limit.


Edit: ah fuck, someone already beat me to it.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=216068.0


On second thought, I think they should be Pewepcoins. About as much value as bitcoins anyway. And it would explain how Pewep got to be a netmillionaire quite neatly.
 
The Poloniex exchange was hacked. Some bitcoins stolen. The exchange owner is stealing 12% of all bitcoin deposits to cover the loss.

I just deposited a small amount of btc before noticing this. >_>

I think keeping money in a Cyprus bank is safer than Bitcoin exchanges at this point.
 
I'm very aware of that meme. I'm trying to decipher how relevant that is to Bitcoin.
Meme? I can't understand how it could possibly be categorized as such.

A protocol is an agreement between multiple people on how exactly to do something.

The bitcoin program is an agreement between multiple people (miners) on how exactly (keep a blockchain with bitcoin's specific stats) to do something. (Public ledger of ownership.)

I can't put it any more simply than that... How could it not be a protocol?


What has been built on it that couldn't be applied to another coin?
The three pillars of network effects I mentioned a week or two ago in the Doge thread. Basically a synergistic, forward momentum of new hashing power, users, and Merchants together... Two cannot do it, it takes all three.


Bitcoin isn't a protocol for communications. http required everyone using the same protocol. Merchants and Software can easily tweak their code and accept Bitcoin, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and even CoinYe if they want.
Those are accepting separate protocols simultaneously. I once had both a DVD player and a Laserdisc player at the same time... It happens when tech is young.


Also, there weren't $100+ billion reasons for people to use another protocol over http.
Those reasons strengthen bitcoin, not altcoins. The more money on the table, the more you want security. The only coin with any security at all is the one with the most hashing power.

But I can just as easily see them being the Napster, Netscape Navigator, Dial Up, and AOL of Cryptocurrency as I can see them completely owning the space.
All not protocols.


The space is too quick and volatile right now to even see 2-3 weeks in advance IMO.
Then why have I been saying the same thing about bitcoin since 2012?


... there might be better implementations of cryptocurrency that we can't even imagine yet but will be invented.
True, but there are two huge caveots to better tech coming out:

#1. Can bitcoin absorb it? Many people call bitcoin "the borg" because it sometimes has a habit of assimilating useful traits from other coins.

#2. Is the advantage so much more useful than bitcoin itself that all the users and merchants out there would immediately see that it is so? If not, the network effect that bitcoin is currently enjoying is far stronger than other technologies' network effects (yes, even cell phones didn't grow as fast as bitcoin is growing, not by a longshot.) So clearly it's got quite a hurdle to overcome.


99% of people believe deflation is bad. Whether that is true or not doesn't matter, that is the perception. An inflating cryptocurrency might have more success in getting mainstream recognition.
They'll learn because they have a financial incentive to do so. (Namely they'll see everyone getting into bitcoin getting richer over time as they themselves get poorer.)

No one said bitcoin is going to win the war in 2014. Patience, damnyouson.


Or a currency that can be 100% anonymous without a tumbler.
An oft-cited example of a trait that could never overcome #2 above. It's just not wanted by the masses nearly enough.

An example of a trait I'd imagine that will be desirable enough is something on the order of absolutely perfect wallet security (good luck on that one!) or simply making everyone in the world a billionaire without somehow inflating the money supply so all prices go up. That should be easy enough, right?

Smaller gains like 'more anonymity' or even 'more safety' are just a fart in a tornado against the current bitcoin network effect.



What's the chance we all stop using IPv4 and switch over to IPv6?
Very close! Props on recognizing that one.

The only reason that exception is possible is because we ran out of IPv4. End of the road. So technically you can think of IPv6 as an extension, not a replacement of the IP protocol.

We're not running out of bitcoin addresses in this planet's lifetime. Maybe in a billion planet's lifespans from now it may become a concern.


The whole market is on an uptrend now.
You don't say. Hmm, I wonder why that would be? ;)


Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but the only coin I know of that is NOT on bitcoin's blockchain is Nxt. All the other alt coins out there piggy back off the blockchain.
Every coin has it's own blockchain. Bitcoin's blockchain is one ledger, litecoin's is another, and so on...

Mastercoin is an exception that lives on the bitcoin blockchain but it's far less scaleable and therefore not as useful as bitcoin so it'll likely be abandoned soon.

Nxt sounds great if you have no understanding of the service that miners provide. Anyone that trusts proof-of-stake over proof-of-work is just begging to lose all the money placed in it. They can't be 51% for sure, but security is far, far worse overall.

I'll keep my wealth in the world's largest PoW network. In fact I believe that all humanity will do so, forever afterwards, starting in a decade or two from now.


I think keeping money in a Cyprus bank is safer than Bitcoin exchanges at this point.
I'll drink to that. Keeping bitcoin on an exchange is like asking someone the IRS constantly audits to hold your gold for you.

Learn wallet security bros. It'll get much easier in time, but you want to hold some coins before the rush that will result in, right?
 
Meme? I can't understand how it could possibly be categorized as such.

Meme - "a pervasive thought or thought pattern that replicates itself via cultural means; a parasitic code, a virus of the mind especially contagious to children and the impressionable"

Google "Bitcoin network effect." It is repeated literally everywhere online. To the point that it is accepted as a fact instead of having a healthy debate about it.

Example from a first page result:

"I have often had to field the question, “Does the fact that Bitcoin can be cloned threaten its long-term viability?”

The stock answer from the community is, “No,” due to the “Network Effect.”


I get nervous whenever I hear, "this won't happen because X" from too many sources. It becomes groupthink more than objective criticism.

Other notable memes include:

"Property will always go up in value."

"Gold will always be a useful storage of wealth."

"Social Media will never replace Search."

There are/were some valid points to support these statements, but they're just speculative theories.

----

A protocol is an agreement between multiple people on how exactly to do something.

The bitcoin program is an agreement between multiple people (miners) on how exactly (keep a blockchain with bitcoin's specific stats) to do something. (Public ledger of ownership.)

I can't put it any more simply than that... How could it not be a protocol?

Okay. I am willing to accept that Bitcoin is a protocol in that aspect.

However, that does not mean that it automatically has power to the same degree as http.

At some point, everyone HAD to use http to connect to everyone else if they wanted to be relevant.

There are tons of currencies. no one has to opt into Bitcoin for transactions to occur.

The real power in this scenario are the payment processors of cryptocurrency.

If Coinbase gets mass acceptance, consumers and merchants will make transactions through it.

And Coinbase can just as easily accept any currency it wants.

They can even sway users to "pay in X currency for a 5% discount."

Bitcoin is nowhere close to ubiquitous yet. There are going to be limits to it that we don't even realize yet.

The three pillars of network effects I mentioned a week or two ago in the Doge thread. Basically a synergistic, forward momentum of new hashing power, users, and Merchants together... Two cannot do it, it takes all three.

Hashing Power is the biggest advantage that Bitcoin has going for it. I'll admit that. First movers advantage.

As for Merchants accepting Bitcoin, that part hasn't actually happened.

What is happening is that merchants are coming to trust CoinBase as a reliable payment processor. Again, CoinBase has TONs of leverage in this cryptocurrency space.

Those are accepting separate protocols simultaneously. I once had both a DVD player and a Laserdisc player at the same time... It happens when tech is young.

Yes, the Payment Processors like CoinBase can accept separate protocols simultaneously. This is exactly why saying "Bitcoin is a protocol" holds little weight. Protocols are easily interchangeable in this system.

Bitcoin is either the DVD player or the LaserDisc.

Payment Processors are the TV.

Most consumers don't care what technology they use to watch the movie, they just want it showing up on their TV.

Those reasons strengthen bitcoin, not altcoins. The more money on the table, the more you want security. The only coin with any security at all is the one with the most hashing power.

My point regards future investors.

Bitcoin is still only worth about $9 billion at this time.

There are Trillions of $$$ still not invested in cryptocurrency.

Why do billionaires and hedge fund managers want to invest in a currency that makes early miner "Joe Bitcoin" a trillionaire overnight? (Joe Bitcoin would instantly become one of the most powerful people in the world)

They could (and have a vested interest in) making their own coin.

Hashing power is nice, but most miners have no "brand loyalty" to Bitcoin. Show them something consistently making more profit, and watch their ASICs and GPUs slowly migrate away...

Then why have I been saying the same thing about bitcoin since 2012?

You have been pimpin' up Bitcoin way before most. I give you props on that.

However, you can't say you knew exact prices and movement. But no one can say that. Bitcoin isn't invincible. There needs to be a healthy amount of acceptance that it MIGHT fail IMO.

Again, this is mostly playing devil's advocate. It would be ignorant for me to say I know with certainty where any of this will be in 3+ years. There's just wayy too many unresolved variables.

The crypto space is definitely exciting to watch though.

Like Marc Andresson says, "its the biggest thing to happen to the internet since the internet."