My Conversation with Mark Karpeles of MtGox



At $425 right now, down from $494 this morning.

Will it break $400?
 
Yes Bitcoin is fucked in China, i just chat with one of my friend, a big investor in BTC China basically he said trust is lost in China about BTC...

Let's see where this lead us.
 
I really regret the chinese involvement sometimes... There's just too damn many of them! It's not like your average chinese investor hears that Square and Stripe both just started accepting bitcoin this week, no, they only hear about rumors out of Beijing so the market always moves to that shit these days...

If they'd been listening to our news, the acceptance of Square should have set the speculators on a huge frenzy. This basically forces paypal's hand.

At least we can rest assured that the west has adopted a few more users and a lot more merchants since the Chinese learned of bitcoin's existence in october... So the worst case scenario is somewhere north of $100, but honestly I don't think we'll go beneath $400.

Hang in there bros, and get some of these cheap-ass coins if you can. They can't stay down here forever.
 
yes we will probably hit 200 usd, but that would be a good news for those who didnt get in when it was cheap. the CN gov. is going to do everything they can to ban bitcoin as they always did... for information it's still impossible to fund a paypal account with a chinese bank account... a long way to go !
 
So the worst case scenario is somewhere north of $100

Wouldn't the actual worst case be it going to zero?

I've tried to stay out of the bitcoin drama for the most part... but seriously, you're fucked if you're still hung up on the price and trying to promote it's value based on price. You want it to be a real currency, then you need to look at it's value as a means of transacting, not it's inflated tulip bulb price.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. If you want to buy bitcoins because you have to pay some shady Russian guy who did some work for you and you can't exactly send him a paypal payment, then fine. That means you are using it to do a transaction and that's good. This is the only thing that bitcoin or altcoins are good for, doing certain niche transactions that aren't easily done in dollars.

If you're going to speculate on bitcoin or altcoins, then don't put in more than you can afford to lose. And prepare your butthole for if/when they become worthless.
 
If bitcoin hits $1 we should all buy as many as we can, pool them together, and then when it bounces back we can finally start Affiliate Island.
 
Wouldn't the actual worst case be it going to zero?

I've tried to stay out of the bitcoin drama for the most part... but seriously, you're fucked if you're still hung up on the price and trying to promote it's value based on price. You want it to be a real currency, then you need to look at it's value as a means of transacting, not it's inflated tulip bulb price.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. If you want to buy bitcoins because you have to pay some shady Russian guy who did some work for you and you can't exactly send him a paypal payment, then fine. That means you are using it to do a transaction and that's good. This is the only thing that bitcoin or altcoins are good for, doing certain niche transactions that aren't easily done in dollars.

If you're going to speculate on bitcoin or altcoins, then don't put in more than you can afford to lose. And prepare your butthole for if/when they become worthless.

What do you mean it can go to zero?

LAST bubble was just tulip bulbs, but THIS time everything is really different and bitcoin is going to change the world and anyone who disagrees is just an ignorant hater. If you are a true believer you'd be still happy to have bought at $1200 and at every step on the way down, LOL

Just ask all those guys who loaded up on these coins and want someone to prop up the price, lol
 
What do you mean it can go to zero?

LAST bubble was just tulip bulbs, but THIS time everything is really different and bitcoin is going to change the world and anyone who disagrees is just an ignorant hater. If you are a true believer you'd be still happy to have bought at $1200 and at every step on the way down, LOL

Just ask all those guys who loaded up on these coins and want someone to prop up the price, lol


Bitcoin is an interesting and new thing for sure, but come on guys when i see that thread and the time spent on that... I am sure there is much more productive and interestings things to be focus on, like having a real life, focusing on a real business... I was into bitcoin at 190 usd just for the fun of it and not because i find it useful or anything.

I still pay my V/A with Paypal and have no issue with this and i am very happy to give commission to HSBC and BNP for all my bank card payment as those guys have always been legit with me.

Bitcoin is fun but still i am thinking what's the real usage. I think the best thing to do with Bitcoin right now is buy more of them when you think it's cheap then come back in 1 year time. In the meantime don't waste your time checkign the news and else about it. While we are spending time to talk about Bitcoin there is actually guys doing real things with their time and not speculating on a fantazy money fluctuating like a Chinese stock.

That bitcoin frenzy just got out of control in my opinion.
 
Ho btw... I was wrong, you better buy some bitcoin right now and come back in 10 years. You'll have few millions, yes, sure...

It’s no surprise that Wences Casares, the CEO of Xapo, a bitcoin startup, is a big bull on the digital currency. His company, which specializes in insured Bitcoin vaults, just raised $20 million in a funding round led by Benchmark.

But Mr. Casares belives that other bitcoin bulls, especially those in the U.S., do not fully appreciate the value of the currency, which has proved especially sticky in emerging markets prone to wild currency fluctuations, such as Mr. Casares’ home country Argentina.

In a video interview with the Wall Street Journal, Mr. Casares says he’s not worried about bitcoin’s own volatility hampering its adoption – though he expects significant volatility over the next few years. He predicts that in a decade, one bitcoin will be worth somewhere between half a million dollars to one million dollars.
 
Wouldn't be surprised if it's at $200 or lower within a few weeks
The final support step down before sub-$100 prices is at $380 USD on bitstamp. I can't imagine the price going below that, but I admit that the Chinese have such massive sway that it could edge past that point if there is real pessimism over there.

However, the Chinese next and final support step at about 2100 Yuan... And they are pretty close to that now at 2400. They'll reach their final support before we do.

The CEO of Gyft is really on top of his game and is making great predictions about bitcoin. Last year before the price popped up above $100, he properly called the run up saying it would go above $1000.

The following link is what he is predicting now, a great read, and I generally agree with it because his reasoning is flawless. He clearly sees the 3 pillars and their importance, but is a bit more bearish than me. I have to admit though, until some great app or new use for bitcoin pushes it to wider user adoption, I'd say his prediction here for a $350-$550 bitcoin over the next quarter is spot-on accurate:

Guest Post: Why is the Bitcoin Price So Weak? | A Lightning War for Liberty


Well, when is the $10k or even $1 million/coin happening? I got my coin, waiting for millionaire status!
God damn you are the most impatient person I ever met. It's AOL/Compuserve time, not firefox! How many times do we need to go over this?


Wouldn't the actual worst case be it going to zero?
No, there are no unicorns involved here.


You want it to be a real currency, then you need to look at it's value as a means of transacting, not it's inflated tulip bulb price.
  • Money is the currency that is most liquid.
  • Currency is a commodity that people exchange easily for other goods and services.
  • Tulip bulbs are just plant fetuses, and no one but landscapers accept them for anything.

The bitcoin community is still working hard on making bitcoin a true currency, and are hoping one day that this currency becomes money. -It was never a tulip bulb though, and only propagandized &/or under-educated fools still make that comparison.


This is the only thing that bitcoin or altcoins are good for, doing certain niche transactions that aren't easily done in dollars.
I understand that this is the only thing that bitcoins are 'good for' to you; but not to many others. Bitcoin is a thousand things to a million different people.

To a monetary refugee in a place like Argentina, Cyprus, Venezuala or others, it's volatility is quite LOW compared to their own currency and they happily use bitcoin as a safe store of value right now.

To married porn lovers it is the easiest way they can hide their fetishes from their spouses.

To illegal drug users it is a way for them to discreetly find what they want too.

To gamers it is the only way they can buy small things like in-game upgrades on a per-purchase basis. (instead of buying $25 worth of game-specific credit first)

To professional gamers, it is the only way they can compete in prizefighting on the fly.

To anarchists like myself, it is the first ever chance we've had to take the monopoly over our money away from the state.

To gamblers, it is the only way to do provably fair gambling, and have unrestricted access to their gambling no matter the laws of their local country.

To migrant workers who are fed up of paying western union up to 30% or more of their payment back in fees to their family in the old country, it is a FREE alternative for remittances.

To hoarders who like to hedge their bets, it's another alternative to gold & silver.

To website owners, it is a new, 3rd option (after advertising and subscriptions) of directly monetizing their content.

To people who like to speculate in markets like the stock market, it is a way to do so without so much regulation.

To the 10 Million americans who have been denied a bank account, it is a way they can have a bank account again.

To the 6 BILLION people around the world with cell phones and no bank account, it is the way they can get their very first bank account!

To the 2nd largest economy on earth, System D, it is a way to do their business across borders with a common money and no regulation, which 100% of them appreciate.​

The only problem is awareness. Very few of the people above know they have these options yet. In time, they will. Every. Last. One of them.

I am honestly just scratching the surface with this list, too. The ways that the blockchain itself, not the currency, will change the planet are infinitely more important. That's what my mind and investment are geared towards these days.
 
Lukep I totally respect you as the messiah of bitcoin but people would take you more seriously if you didn't pretend to have a crystal ball and make such definitive statements. That's what turns on most people's bullshit-detectors and really doesn't help the "this isn't a bubble" argument, fwiw.
 
To the 10 Million americans who have been denied a bank account, it is a way they can have a bank account again.

To the 6 BILLION people around the world with cell phones and no bank account, it is the way they can get their very first bank account!

Luke you make a point but does those 10 millions americans without bank account can afford a smart phone ?

Also those 6 billions people with cells phones and no bank account don't forget that 90% of them are equipped with mobile phone not much better than nokia 3310 and does not support any app.

Also good luck to motivate those guys to adopt Bitcoin as my experienced in south east asia / africa and 3rd world is that those guys only trust cash money.
 
Lukep I totally respect you as the messiah of bitcoin but people would take you more seriously if you didn't pretend to have a crystal ball and make such definitive statements. That's what turns on most people's bullshit-detectors and really doesn't help the "this isn't a bubble" argument, fwiw.

How dare you question the messiah ?! Convert to the one true faith, stop worrying and send your cash to the Mt.Goxes of the world!

ROTFLMAO
 
If bitcoin is adopted by more merchants, they will do what current merchants do... immediately sell for their fiat currency of choice. I don't see how increased adoption leads to higher prices. It seems to me it will just increase the number of sellers and push down prices. Right now, when someone
sells 500-1k coins, the prices gets hit for $20-$40.

Bitcoin proponents keep saying, you can just immediately convert bitcoins to dollars, no risk! But how does the fact that if there are not enough buyers for someone like, a Walmart, the price will go down and down. What pillar is that?