at least this thread provided much entertainment value. are you not entertained? indeed we are. ceosam should be banned for being worthless and un-entertaning
JP Grunin: From $10,000 to $100,000 in 6 months.
- Thread starter mGrunin
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at least this thread provided much entertainment value. are you not entertained? indeed we are. ceosam should be banned for being worthless and un-entertaning
Look its very simple, if you could consistently make solid profits with a "system" and it was in any way scalable you would easily become the wealthiest person on the planet (every fucker would throw their money at you).
No one has EVER managed to do that, think about that and check your arrogance at the door.
The ONLY strategy that works (that isn't illegal) over the long term is value investing and Buffett proves that point. Run any of your "strategies" as long as he has been in the business and you will have been broke a long time ago.
Jons point falls down on the fact that although with a level playing field he could possibly beat most fund managers with his strategy, I can almost guarantee it doesn't scale and that if he had a significant (several billion) under management he ends up going no where near the big hedge fund managers as whatever edge he thinks he has doesn't scale that far up. Again, if he could get his strategy to scale at that level he'd be the wealthiest person alive.
Investing as an individual (non insider) is simple, you either look for a good investment at a good price and forget about stock market or you are just gambling. Charting/technical analysis is a total joke. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
No one has EVER managed to do that, think about that and check your arrogance at the door.
The ONLY strategy that works (that isn't illegal) over the long term is value investing and Buffett proves that point. Run any of your "strategies" as long as he has been in the business and you will have been broke a long time ago.
Jons point falls down on the fact that although with a level playing field he could possibly beat most fund managers with his strategy, I can almost guarantee it doesn't scale and that if he had a significant (several billion) under management he ends up going no where near the big hedge fund managers as whatever edge he thinks he has doesn't scale that far up. Again, if he could get his strategy to scale at that level he'd be the wealthiest person alive.
Investing as an individual (non insider) is simple, you either look for a good investment at a good price and forget about stock market or you are just gambling. Charting/technical analysis is a total joke. Past results do not guarantee future performance.
Cummon that is so naive. You think because your guy reads 30 pages(!?!?!?) he somehow has an edge over a whole floor of PhDs and professional traders? Every single little thing he thinks he has learnt from an annual statement has been factored into the share price before he has had a chance to get to page 2.
The stock market isn't made for individual traders to make money, its a zero-sum game, and the large houses and colossal hedge funds make money. Where does it come from? People like your friend.
The way I see having some short term edges on the market is when it comes to new technologies where the large investment banks may have not bought in the talent yet. But that hole closes quickly and you aint gonna make a significant chunk of change taking advantage of that unless you are a) very knowledgeable about that field and b) willing to go balls deep FAST.
Stanley Druckenmiller, Paul Tudor Jones, Ed Seykota, Michael Marcus, Larry Hite, George Soros
Dude there are a shit load of billionaires who made their money from strategies that have nothing to do with value investing. Some of the above guys are strict trend followers "buy high, sell higher" which shows that even strategies the exact opposite of value investing can produce good returns.
If you go swaggering into the market thinking you have an edge because you read Intelligent Investor one weekend - You're gonna get your nuts blown off.
Value investing is buying stocks for less than they're worth. Here's the problem Einstein, its very, very fucking hard to know what a company is worth. That's what made Buffett rich, he's very good at seeing further than anyone else. Notice when he makes an acquisition it never looks undervalued (low P/E, P/S) think Coca-Cola or Burlington Northern. Articles at the time claimed Coca-Cola was overvalued and Buffett had mis-stepped, infact it turned out to be one of his best. The trick is seeing "value" that is imperceptible to thousands of smart analysts on Wall Street. In the case of Coca-Cola Buffett saw the high ROIC from Coke's domestic business was replicable in almost every foreign market. In Burlington Northern he foresaw the macro shift of transports from air/road to train.
There is no secret to "value investing". Buying low and selling high is obvious. But the markets are a shit ton more efficient now than they were in Ben Grahams day, so you need to be an amazing analyst to see the "value" that wall street misses.
You don't have to be better or smarter than everybody else to beat the market or to make money from trades.
For exmaple, when Warren Buffet thinks a company is worth 2x where it is currently trading and he decides he wants to put in 1 billion, the stock doesn't instantly double and he doesn't bid it all the way up to 2x where it currently is (at least not usually). He puts in some money and waits. Any number of people can come in after him and get a similar return.
For exmaple, when Warren Buffet thinks a company is worth 2x where it is currently trading and he decides he wants to put in 1 billion, the stock doesn't instantly double and he doesn't bid it all the way up to 2x where it currently is (at least not usually). He puts in some money and waits. Any number of people can come in after him and get a similar return.
Proper value investing is ignoring the market completely. Fuck buy low and sell high, its buy low and sell never. It's buying a business and not a future looking share price.
When it comes to making money in other ways its glorified gambling. The market is not made for you to make money and if you think it is then you are exactly why the market is there. Zero sum game.
Oh and, Einstein, a statement like "its very, very fucking hard to know what a company is worth" is proper face palm, a company is worth what you are willing to pay for it, duh! Knowing what its going to be worth in the future is the very, very fucking hard part, and thats why you don't try to second guess it. You buy a business and if the investment is good then its good and if it goes sour you get out or help to make it good, the market is not the judge of the worth of a business it is only what people believe the business will be worth in the future and quite obviously there is no credence in that.
There are 4 types of people who work on wallstreet: insiders (who make the market), investors, gamblers or crooks. 99.99% of people who think they are investors are nothing more than gamblers.
He also made a good deal of money selling FB accounts in 2012. I personally sent him at least 300k in 2012, and I know I wasn't the only one buying from him.
im impressed that grunin has managed to not say anything in his defense. Threads like this have the potential to end up like Amy's Bakery fiasco. I wonder what he's thinking reading all of these comments
What you're saying is upon reading publicly released information, you now know better than the market.
Apple sells record numbers of devices, oh great lets invest $20k. Stock price drops by nearly half...
Jesus, this thread went bad.. But his thread at Elite traders went even worse! Literally just destroyed any sort of reputation he may have had in the internet trading community.. I mean, damn, man.. damn.
You built up a decent reputation in IM, and when you seemed to move onto trading, you seemed like you were doing alright (but shit, what do we really know until you do something like this challenge, right?)
Then after posting this all over the internet, for all to see (I mean, we can all agree, this is a "Hey, look at me" type thread), and making a whopping THREE trades, it just bombed. And bombed about as hard as anyone could have imagined.. Oh well though, you took a shot.
At least you can always go back to internet marketing (becoming known/respected in internet trading, unless you change your name, is going to be a bit more challenging).
You built up a decent reputation in IM, and when you seemed to move onto trading, you seemed like you were doing alright (but shit, what do we really know until you do something like this challenge, right?)
Then after posting this all over the internet, for all to see (I mean, we can all agree, this is a "Hey, look at me" type thread), and making a whopping THREE trades, it just bombed. And bombed about as hard as anyone could have imagined.. Oh well though, you took a shot.
At least you can always go back to internet marketing (becoming known/respected in internet trading, unless you change your name, is going to be a bit more challenging).
Did he fuck you over???? If not then I suggest you take a breath, read back what you said, and then ask a mod to please delete it. Even if he did then I also suggest you take a breath, read back what you said, and then ask a mod to please delete it, no one likes a snitch.
Dear god, idiocy seems to be ruling in this thread.
Sounds interesting but I don't buy that.
If Buffet sees something that "1000s of analyst" can't see, then I guess chances are that even the company doesn't see that.
But if the company does see anything, I'm sure they will proclaim it loudly.
Or do you say Buffet is more like a consultant? (not sure what's his business model). I just figured Buffet bought early and made decent choices. There was an amazing bull market in the decades prior to '00...
But also, a lot of people lack success because they overestimate others and underestimate themselves. You seem to estimate others quite high...
Let's not forget that big companies often are complete pig farms (heard that from consultants)
Buffet doesn't see things others don't, he just evaluates the businesses differently. There is no real secret sauce, just that he does his homework thoroughly and doesn't pay attention to the market at all. If the price is right for him he buys if not he passes (or manages to negotiate it to be right).
You're just wrong here. Buffett likes to make out that his success is based on a simple attitude change, ignoring stock prices etc.
The thing which made Buffett super rich is he found a genius way to use non-recourse financial leverage from insurance company floats. I don't have exact figures but I believe that leverage roughly doubles his unlevered investment returns from common stocks.
That is why Coca-Cola can be one of buffett's best investments despite only returning 15% per year. His insurance float doubles the return on coke so that his actual return is closer to his long term average 30% returns.
In other words, people who think Buffett has just been plying the same technique for 50 years are wrong. He brings a ton of creativity to the craft that even Ben Graham lacked.
Well he doesn't "like to make out" anything, he actually says it many times. So what you are saying is that he is basically a liar who is a total egotist, who needs to lie about things to impress others. This, a man who drives a lincoln town car and lives in the same house he bought over 50 years ago.
Hmmm. Sorry but I tend to believe him. Call me nuts.