It's just like any other business imo. Some people open up an ice cream shop. Statistics say that most small business fail. So should nobody ever open an ice cream shop?
JP Grunin: From $10,000 to $100,000 in 6 months.
- Thread starter mGrunin
- Start date
It's just like any other business imo. Some people open up an ice cream shop. Statistics say that most small business fail. So should nobody ever open an ice cream shop?
Anyone posting about stocks on a non-related forum to try and make a name for himself is very misguided at best. The blind leading the blind.
Many of us do all the time, but it is called testing theories, not blind experiments just to throw money away.
There are leaders in this industry, and there are followers, the OP was fishing for misguided followers, you know, the ones that think $10g is big money. I personally think these so called stock experts should be banned from WF just because it is absolutely unrelated to seo and clearly the OP is just trying to fish where he can for free.
If anyone truly had a way to make 10x their money in 6 month's, they would keep that very secret, not blab about it on unrelated forums. Just be glad no suckers swam into his scheme and lost $$$
Before going off on the whole "it's rigged" notion, learn about the history of the stock markets and even Wall Street too. It's incredibly fascinating, but will give you the true and real picture of WHY it was set up the way it is now (modern financial markets) versus how it was from the 1800's until just shy of the late 1970's and the push behind the modern touted NASDAQ.
It always has been and always will be a perception market. Just like "investing" is in the minds of most common working people. You and your parents have been sold on a lie, but this lie was meant to keep you somewhat engaged and hopeful. Could you possibly make a profit on the stock market and from investing in long term plays, or with your 401k's and mutual funds and all of those financial products?? "YES WE CAN"!!! That's the beauty of the pitch from the PROFESSIONAL financial 'investment' industry you've manifested into what can best be defined as an investment ethos. Truth is, you're taking the risk, and the guys selling you on it are slowly raping the shit out of you. I'm not judging either side as it is what it is. That's the genius behind all of it, and it really is fucking genius, one should always respect it and take a step back and truly admire it in all it's beauty and evil too. Pure fucking genius.
tlldr - Unless you're licensed to be part of their professional financial community, your graphs, your stats, your opinions and studying means absolutely dick. It was never meant to be predicted, only meant to fool you into thinking you are smarter and luckier than others, therefore you too can be a rich motherfucker because you have the pros on your side.
For my fund, we have this thing called EDGE. Without that, we'd be playing the same fool's game that these other guys play. It's just that simple. Without an edge, you are playing a game of chance with some luck if you win and no luck if you lose.
I'd challenge any stock market pro to beat me in an earnings and/or profit figure contest for a set duration of time. $10k is too low, $1M is probably wiser. Six to twelve months is fine, and have a bonus to make it even more interesting if you can reach certain milestones along the way. They would never beat me because their edge is typically illegal.. whereas my edge isn't. Hell, I'd even say, let them play their stock markets and I'll play on just the bitcoin market. Any takers? Msg me.
(Grunin, you may want to pay attention, noob.)
It always has been and always will be a perception market. Just like "investing" is in the minds of most common working people. You and your parents have been sold on a lie, but this lie was meant to keep you somewhat engaged and hopeful. Could you possibly make a profit on the stock market and from investing in long term plays, or with your 401k's and mutual funds and all of those financial products?? "YES WE CAN"!!! That's the beauty of the pitch from the PROFESSIONAL financial 'investment' industry you've manifested into what can best be defined as an investment ethos. Truth is, you're taking the risk, and the guys selling you on it are slowly raping the shit out of you. I'm not judging either side as it is what it is. That's the genius behind all of it, and it really is fucking genius, one should always respect it and take a step back and truly admire it in all it's beauty and evil too. Pure fucking genius.
tlldr - Unless you're licensed to be part of their professional financial community, your graphs, your stats, your opinions and studying means absolutely dick. It was never meant to be predicted, only meant to fool you into thinking you are smarter and luckier than others, therefore you too can be a rich motherfucker because you have the pros on your side.
For my fund, we have this thing called EDGE. Without that, we'd be playing the same fool's game that these other guys play. It's just that simple. Without an edge, you are playing a game of chance with some luck if you win and no luck if you lose.
I'd challenge any stock market pro to beat me in an earnings and/or profit figure contest for a set duration of time. $10k is too low, $1M is probably wiser. Six to twelve months is fine, and have a bonus to make it even more interesting if you can reach certain milestones along the way. They would never beat me because their edge is typically illegal.. whereas my edge isn't. Hell, I'd even say, let them play their stock markets and I'll play on just the bitcoin market. Any takers? Msg me.
(Grunin, you may want to pay attention, noob.)
Does he still have that bet with Jon? I want to see him go work for Jon and see what would happen.
EDIT: 4-30-2016 can't come soon enough
EDIT: 4-30-2016 can't come soon enough
From the first page of this thread...
You put yourself out there and got your ass handed back to you, publicly.. HARD and FAST. Are you going to take this loss and just let it end there?
I think you should get back onto the horse and go at it with $100k-$1M. Your risk strategy is pretty bold, but if it's what has worked for you in the past and you truly do believe in what you are doing, then go for it. You can do it!
(Personally, I think you're fuckin outta your mind to do any of this, but my opinion and everyone else's should have no bearing on how you do your thing, and if anyone is foolish enough to follow you, and you guys end up winning big, you deserve it, but if you lose big too, you also deserve that. So.. win win?? lol)
Apparently neither did you nor anyone else that rallied behind him... You are all adults and can make big boy decisions for yourself, but you seem a bit shocked.. why is that?
Do you not see what went wrong either?
I think it's actually a fantastic case study and wildly entertaining thread for that matter. It's an amazing look into the many facets of opinions and perspectives on what regular and professional financial folks see as the mecca of capitalism (or where it used to be, before they all moved to NJ and Midtown). I mean that sincerely.
LOL! Forgetting a 't' got your panties in a bunch.
You may want to look into the real story behind why he became chairman of Salomon, though it has been revised heavily over the past two decades in order to put more emphasis on the 'rogue trader' scapegoat that everyone agreed to use. This event is what rocketed him to mega wealth.
That's completely different.
You can run an ice cream shop better than other ice cream shops. You can differentiate your product. You can do all kinds of things to "beat" those small business statistics.
In a market, your money is the same as anyone else's money. You don't have an edge. If you put $1 into a stock, it's the same as someone else putting $1 into that stock. You can't differentiate your dollar from theirs and make it perform better in the same stock/share.
The more stocks you invest in, the more your return will be averaged out over, and the closer you'll get to the index's return.
When you take a small subset of that index and invest in it, you'll average out a similar return over say a few hundred years, and you'll experience more variance. Effectively, by making stock picks rather than investing in an index, you just increase your variance. That's all you do.
That means it gives the illusion of "great picks" and big wins, when in reality you've just gotten lucky.
I'm not sure how I can be any clearer. You can try and pick out great companies from the index, and value them better than the market day and night, but to think you can do it better than multi billion dollar institutions, trading algorithms developed by extremely smart quants and trading desks that dedicate their lives to it is moronic (and that's what you're saying by saying you, as an individual, can long term beat the market).
I think a lot of you have views that are just too extreme and one sided. Some of you have read Bogle and think anything but indexing is bound to lose money... And some of you have read Intelligent Investor and think value investing is the only way to go.
The fact is there are millions of permutations of possibilities of trades in financial markets. Timing, choice of contract, choice of security etc. It's not easy to win over time but it is possible.
Mcgrunin is fucking around with relatively small amounts of money. Maybe he can develop an edge over time. An edge doesn't have to come from something "hard" like insider knowledge it could also be a "soft" edge like the ability to empathize with the mentality of other traders a la Paul Tudor Jones.
If I had to fault him, I'd say he needs to read up on probabilities and statistics involved in trading. An edge in markets is usually very small and therefore is only visible against hundreds of trades. Trying to swing for the fences and risk almost all your capital on a trade will likely blow your account whether you have an edge or not.
The fact is there are millions of permutations of possibilities of trades in financial markets. Timing, choice of contract, choice of security etc. It's not easy to win over time but it is possible.
Mcgrunin is fucking around with relatively small amounts of money. Maybe he can develop an edge over time. An edge doesn't have to come from something "hard" like insider knowledge it could also be a "soft" edge like the ability to empathize with the mentality of other traders a la Paul Tudor Jones.
If I had to fault him, I'd say he needs to read up on probabilities and statistics involved in trading. An edge in markets is usually very small and therefore is only visible against hundreds of trades. Trying to swing for the fences and risk almost all your capital on a trade will likely blow your account whether you have an edge or not.
