The Official Trading Thread

Trading ideas: BBRY could possible short squeeze. A technical take then some fundamental analysis, recv'd an hour before the close today and trading in BBRY was fairly light.

- support level is tested, should provide low risk entry
- not totally sold on the fundamental reasoning, but then again, with that much short interest in a stock you don't need that much positive news to set off a stampede.

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mGrunin said:
I agree with what you said, and that PDF just lists the reasons as to why the mass majority of traders fail. For his situation, his discipline cracked at the wrong moment, and he over-sized his positions. Problem with that is if you catch a wrong trade..everything is washed away. That is the difficult thing about trading, you must stick to your set of rules at all times, because that one time you slip, it can cost you everything.

I am going to spend some time right now explaining the way I see trading as a whole. Is trading a form of gambling? Yes it is, because successful trading comes down to understanding probability. I can read all the charts I want, and know every little financial detail about the company, but I will never be able to with certainty (100%) pinpoint that stock's movement every time. There is no edge when it comes to trading, the edge is formed though when you do not trade on low probability trades, and push on high probability trades.

Lets get right back to gambling. Gambling is all based on probability. BlackJack specifically carries a house edge (like all casino games). When you sit down to play each and every hand, after enough sample space you will definitely walk away a loser. But lets say that for you the rules are different. You only have to put your money down when you have a face card v dealer 6. If you kept playing that hand over and over again, does the probability change? Course it does, even though there is no certainty that you will win each hand, probability wise you have the greater chance of winning that setup. Similar thing to if the dealer has a 5 and you have two aces. Split the aces, right? In doing so you double down, and you know that your probability is much higher than if you have a 8 v dealer face card.

Considering all the charts I have posted on this thread, it should be clear that by now that there is a pattern to price action. This patterns can be taken advantage off, and utilizing them gives you that king vs 6 setup. You might come into that trade, and the pattern continues, or it might break finally; similar to the dealer catching a 5 with that 6 and then a face. The thing is, there is a bigger chance of the pattern holding than breaking.

If you roll back all the past charts on this thread and look at what the stocks or market did compared to my suggested annotation, you'll notice that 75%+ of what was expected actually happened.
Click to expand...

I actually don't consider trading as gambling per se. Sure it is on some level, but like poker (which is more gambling, but has similarities), it's a probability and odds game and if you've got a grasp of maths, can read charts and you keep an eye on underlying fundamentals, then you have an edge to ease the probabilities north.

I think it was the bloke who did the Turtle Trading thing, Richard Dennis, who said trading was like a dice that cost you $100 a roll and every time you roll a 6 you get $1000. You'll not stop rolling, because the odds are in your favour.

I was implying not that you or others within this thread gamble; you trade. I was saying Mr. Over-leveraged up there was gambling, just rolling the dice at $200+ a pop and hoping for a few $1000 sixes on the trot, only he didn't see one for 2 days.

I'd like to have seen the number and size of positions he opened over those 2 days, that'd be interesting, you know, seeing the chase get riskier.
 
infoslob said:
Trading ideas: BBRY could possible short squeeze. A technical take then some fundamental analysis, recv'd an hour before the close today and trading in BBRY was fairly light.

- support level is tested, should provide low risk entry
- not totally sold on the fundamental reasoning, but then again, with that much short interest in a stock you don't need that much positive news to set off a stampede.
Click to expand...

Waiting on this also. BBRY could be a golden opportunity over the next couple months if there's a short squeeze...182 mil shares short out of 494 mil float. Not to mention they have $6/share cash on hand and beat EPS by .42 last quarter, although the share price had nothing to show for it. Fundamentals are strong and in my opinion the BB10 isn't getting it's due.

Short term trend since Jan is a converging triangle so could go either way on technicals, personally I'm holding off on call positions until after the report to see how the price reacts and the obligatory IV drop.
 
stock market still for suckers though because it's just so fucking hard. nearly impossible to make money. only handful of methods that work. For example, i'm buying YM in the pre-market/after hours. And I'm buying puts & calls on stocks & ETFs that exhibit certain characteristics. Up 3.5k with my 12k account

this dude is an idiot if he couldn't apply his own advice before blowing up 3 times. I can understand blowing up once, but 3 or 4 times is probably a sign that it's time to find another hobby
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=3830682

When I place an order I have a stop to ensure I don't incur losses no more than $250 per contract and I only trade one contract at a time once a day. Futures are super leveraged so extreme caution is warranted. You will lose shitloads of money very quickly if you don;t have a contingency plan.
 
Time to throw some charts in!

Mostly important, lets look at what S&P is doing. This week opened up very poor for S&P where it sold off 30 points on Monday. Luckily for the longs, the selling bottomed out at 1560. Days before I did mention that 1555 will be the first solid support level to be tested..looks like it came earlier than that.

Well ever since that bounce at 1560, S&P has traded as high as 1620 today! Yep, 60 point rally from the Monday's bottom. That comes out to a 3.8% rally in 4 days.

Now before all the longs can go out and celebrate, there is an important level that S&P needs to conquer to put itself back in rally mode. That is the 50 day moving average. It was last Thursday that S&P lose that level, and it ignited a fierce sell off.

Today S&P attempted to break above it but failed twice. The index ended up selling off from 1620 down to 1613 on the close.

Time to look at the chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/Pp7gnLho/

Next in line is BlackBerry. I actually meant to post up a chart and my opinion on BlackBerry last night and did not. I had a bearish sentiment, and I suppose I should have posted it considering that BlackBerry fall 2.82% today. Below you will find the 5 minute chart and the levels to look out for.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/hJUt3jGQ/

Last but not least is Google. I love this stock simply because it is so predictable. I've called tops and bottoms many times successfully on it. Right now Google is fighting for a direction. Today we saw Google sell off at the same exact level that it sold off two weeks ago. At the same time, the stock is hugging the 50 DMA. If it breaks under it, then a short first down to $872 looks like a good play, followed by possibly a follow through down to $865.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AB4sNeRp/
 
One last thing, this is back to the 1620 resistance level. When S&P was making that high; /ES (S&P Futures) was at a high of 1614. Well an hour ago we came back to that level. and once again we sold under. Still holding as a solid resistance level.

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Oh man, completely slipped my mind that BlackBerry reports earnings tomorrow. In that case, the levels of support and resistance in my prior chart can be ignored since it is too short term.

A more adequate chart would be the one offered by Finviz:

chart.ashx


That my friend is called a symmetrical triangle. Which means once it breaks out in either direction, it will REALLY move.
 
mGrunin said:
Last but not least is Google. I love this stock simply because it is so predictable. I've called tops and bottoms many times successfully on it. Right now Google is fighting for a direction. Today we saw Google sell off at the same exact level that it sold off two weeks ago. At the same time, the stock is hugging the 50 DMA. If it breaks under it, then a short first down to $872 looks like a good play, followed by possibly a follow through down to $865.

https://www.tradingview.com/v/AB4sNeRp/
Click to expand...

That's the hourly chart, goog is up from the 50 day MA
 
mGrunin said:
Oh man, completely slipped my mind that BlackBerry reports earnings tomorrow. In that case, the levels of support and resistance in my prior chart can be ignored since it is too short term.

A more adequate chart would be the one offered by Finviz:

chart.ashx


That my friend is called a symmetrical triangle. Which means once it breaks out in either direction, it will REALLY move.
Click to expand...

Shorts never covered, winning big now - BBRY at @10.50, down 27%.
 
Hah, that is pretty funny. That image I hotlinked from Finviz is being updated in realtime.

I am sure many have heard, the earnings released by BlackBerry was a complete flop. Analysts expected a 8c gain per share, instead a loss of 13c per share was posted.

The sales on the new BlackBerry came in weak as well.

All being said...the company is going sub $10.
 
I am now back to being bullish on Apple. Back in April I was bullish on Apple when it hit $385 and began to bounce back. A big key for me back then was the increase in volume, the rebound had solid volume and it kept me into my call positions. Once I started noticing the drop off in volume towards the $450-$460 level, I did mention that the continued increase might come to an end. Which it end.

Two weeks later Apple tested $420, and successfully held that level. Three weeks later Apple tested the $450 range on multiple occasions but was never able to overcome it. Once the markets topped off and began to sell. So did Apple. On Friday, Apple was trading at $389. $4 away from its 52 week low.

Well this is where Apple decided to surprise everyone. Considering that Friday the markets were mixed for a good part of the day, Apple set a bottom at $388.88 and began to rebound. In the last hour of Friday Apple hit a high at $400.27. But had to succumb to overall market sell off which pushed it down to $396.53 at the close. +0.70% for the day.

Dow Jones was down 0.76% for the day. S&P down -0.43%. Nasdaq pulled out a 0.04% gain. Either way, Apple outperformed the markets for the day.

Lets bring up the daily chart:

https://www.tradingview.com/v/TCr1XcVu/

In that chart, I was pointing out a very similar candle that we experienced in April when Apple began to make a come back. The lows, highs, wicks and closing price are nearly the same. Remember...patterns if they exist, will repeat.

RSI which helps us know if a stock is oversold or overbought is still very much oversold on the daily. It would seem that a $15 bounce back up would be healthy bounce even if it wants to continue moving lower.

It might be difficult to tell in that chart, but this is also the highest volume we have had in a green day since May 20th.

Monday will be a key day for Apple but as of right now I believe Apple will bounce over the $400 level and possibly even test $420 later this week.

Putting my money where my mouth is, I do have an open bullish position for the following week. It is a long $400/$405 Call. Next Friday's expiration. Breakeven level is somewhere in the $402 mark. Maximum gain is $405 and above.

Basically I need Apple to be trading above $405 by week's end. This position is risking $2,000. Maximum gain is $5,505. Currently the position is +$500.
 
Shit boom YM tanking and I lose another $100 with my single contract I bought this afternoon (the most conservative trade possible still failed even after the dow fell 100 points and that was another 50 points below where i got stopped out the first time) . had I not used a stop my first trade would be a loss and my second would be a 800 loss vs 250 loss.

time to fire up my mailer. in about 2-4 hours that loss should be covered
 
cpauser said:
Shit boom YM tanking and I lose another $100 with my single contract I bought this afternoon (the most conservative trade possible still failed even after the dow fell 100 points and that was another 50 points below where i got stopped out the first time) . had I not used a stop my first trade would be a loss and my second would be a 800 loss vs 250 loss.

time to fire up my mailer. in about 2-4 hours that loss should be covered
Click to expand...

In the afternoon? The futures market opened up about 40 minutes before your post. Right now things look fine, the futures are completely flat. Sitting at Friday's market close.

Holding a very minor position in /es from 1596.25 (3 hrs ago). Only 3 contracts. Up 8 points ($150 per point) right now since /es is at 1603.25. I will probably close the position off before going to bed since I already have a bullish option position for the week; the SPY spread.
 
By the way..Nikkei surpassed the 14,000 mark. That is quite big. Sitting 2,000 points or so from its YTD high. Tempted to take a long if our US markets rally today...
 
Futures are definitely looking pretty good right now. Just closed 2 out of the 3 contracts for $1k+ gain. Decent for 3 hour position on a Sunday night. Exited at 1605.25; for a +9 point gain.

Like I said in an earlier post, I have two bullish positions going into the coming week, it would be a poor decision for me to scale on my bullish positions while going to sleep. If anything..opening up a short on the futures would be the right play as a hedge.

Actually I do not believe I posted my SPY position publicly yet. I am looking for SPY to close higher than 160.80 by week's end. This is a bullish put spread.
 
Very nice move right now on the index futures. Last contract just closed for +11.25 points. Reason I am closing here is because this is where we sold off three times on Friday. It is an obvious resistance so there is no reason to hang around here for now.

We have ISM manufacturing report coming out at 10 am tomorrow. I typically do not cover trading the news here that much, but there are some reports that I do trade, and do quite well. This might be a report I will trade off tomorrow.
 
Gonna see if i can buy a USD/TRY position tomorrow. 200k contract. this is like the baccarat of forex. none of this usd/eur crap
shorting the AUD is a close approximation, but turkey has 60 years of hyperinflation. currency is a goner given enough time
 
Very nice, things went just as expected. DOW Jones finished up 0.44%. Nasdaq at 0.92% and S&P at a 0.54% gain. What was not expected was the drastic sell off in the second half of the day that literally whipped away all gains intraday. Basically these percentiles are all due to the overnight movement..nothing intraday.

Most of all, this set the stage for Apple which had the exact rebound I was looking for. Apple rebounded more than 3% today for a +$9 day.

Time for a chart!

https://www.tradingview.com/v/sSOmftLN/

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Since it is past 12 am, the P/L Day figure reseted but the Apple position did gain $3,000 today. I also opened up another Apple as you can see there; 420/425 call spread. I opened it because of how well Apple moved today. It is only a risk of $365, with a maximum gain of $2,135. Breakeven is at the $420.80 level. Like I have said before, trading is all about the probabilities. When a good risk/reward ratio like this appears, you take it.

With the SPY position, nothing too crazy happened there. I just reversed the $500 losses held on the position from Friday, and the position is only on a $75 gain. Looking for things to move better tomorrow.

I will be covering these two positions for the rest of the week since I specifically pointed them out beforehand.
 
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