My Conversation with Mark Karpeles of MtGox

Even victims of Gox's latest crash say that they only have their own stupidity to blame.

Wow, I am surprised to hear something reasonable from you. Everyone who put substantial assets into Bitcoin (vs just treating it as "play money") will only have their own stupidity to blame when inevitable regulatory actions happen.

Wow, it's been like 3 months since I've heard someone outside of the media use the word bubble on bitcoin... Congrats.

So far, the word bubble has scared off the general public a total of 5 spikes... But never once was there a bubble, and never will there be one in bitcoin.

A bubble brings prices back to where they started. So if your asset is worth $1, and hype shoots it to $500, it was only a bubble when it comes back down to $1.

Even on a logarythmic chart, it still looks like this: /\

Here's a logarythmic chart of bitcoin:
marketcap_chart.png


See the difference?

This is a typical chart of a bubble asset pre-crash. The fundamentals of BTC value suck, since it will be limited to illegal transactions once regulators have their way with it. The run-up to ~$1200 happened when a big influx of dumb institutional money rushed in, spooked by another crisis is *real* security markets and thinking BTC could be a "safe haven" compared to everything else they've seen before. By now they have learned their lesson and the smart money has been getting out, while the likes of you are complaining about Mt.Gox accounts and soon will have a lot more to complain about.

As for your graph extrapolating past growth, cummon! Investment 101.

I can make a very good prediction here and put my neck on the line. By 2017 bitcoin will be all but a distant memory and you will not be showing your face on Wickedfire as you'll be too ashamed to.

My thoughts exactly
 


Smart money invested on an unregulated, speculative grey high risk market run on a handful amateurish trading websites called "exchanges" as safe haven?

You notice the glitch in your argumentation? The word "smart* fits where?

I know where i talk about because as i invested in early 2013 i gave it a 50/50 chance my money is lost. Even to bring the money to the exchange was an adventure. To buy in my hometown some heroine is easier. Smart money. the only smart money was the 800% win. Only 800%, i payed the usual price to be an inexperienced trader.

Yes, perhaps 2017 bitcoins are history but your smart money & regualation arguments are nonsense. There was most time of 2013 no bubble, the prices was long time sideway and stable and the bubble in november, which brought the prices from 150 to 1250 in like 23 days is called china bubble not without reason.

You really don't get the nature of trading coins - i assume you don't trade.

As trader i hate bitcoins worth $1200. $12 would be great. The money you can make when the asset its worth under $100 is alot higher as with such super expensive coins. Thats the reason why the real money maker since november 2013 was LTC and not BTC. A good bot was able to make 20%-30% more out of LTC as from btc. There is nothing better as a volatile asset swinging up & down over the market caps.
 
You even have Kevin O'Leary on CBC saying bitcoin is great, and he's going to throw some money at it. Considering he's a self-made multi billionaire, I'm going to go on a limb here and say his money can be considered "smart money". I wouldn't be surprised to find out guys like Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, or Mark Cuban threw some money at it as well.

However, I'm quite confident that entire class of people have now permanently left bitcoin. They're gone, and not coming back any time soon. Maybe I'm wrong though.

Of course there was "smart money" buying bitcoins and investing - as they do in every internet & future idea. The 2 strange "facebook was our idea" twins are an example.

But the market was driven by complete other money sources and so the bubbles. That was not smart money. Smart money buyed coins, put them in a wallet and watched what was coming. They buyed 2012 and eary 2013 but not for $1250. There they sold perhaps.

The november bubble was mainly driven by china and why & what was decribed often enough.
 
A bubble brings prices back to where they started. So if your asset is worth $1, and hype shoots it to $500, it was only a bubble when it comes back down to $1.

False.

Even on a logarythmic chart, it still looks like this: /\

Here's a logarythmic chart of bitcoin:
marketcap_chart.png


See the difference?

A log chart of market capitalization of an asset with increasing supply is a horribly misleading piece of evidence against a bubble. From 2010 to 2013 the supply more than tripled. Because of this, if the price of each Bitcoin [in $] had been cut in half during that period, the chart you posted would still have a positive slope.
 
Smart money invested on an unregulated, speculative grey high risk market run on a handful amateurish trading websites called "exchanges" as safe haven?

You notice the glitch in your argumentation? The word "smart* fits where?

I know where i talk about because as i invested in early 2013 i gave it a 50/50 chance my money is lost. Even to bring the money to the exchange was an adventure. To buy in my hometown some heroine is easier. Smart money. the only smart money was the 800% win. Only 800%, i payed the usual price to be an inexperienced trader.

Yes, perhaps 2017 bitcoins are history but your smart money & regualation arguments are nonsense. There was most time of 2013 no bubble, the prices was long time sideway and stable and the bubble in november, which brought the prices from 150 to 1250 in like 23 days is called china bubble not without reason.

You really don't get the nature of trading coins - i assume you don't trade.

As trader i hate bitcoins worth $1200. $12 would be great. The money you can make when the asset its worth under $100 is alot higher as with such super expensive coins. Thats the reason why the real money maker since november 2013 was LTC and not BTC. A good bot was able to make 20%-30% more out of LTC as from btc. There is nothing better as a volatile asset swinging up & down over the market caps.

Gibberish
 
For bitcoin to succeed they need actual businessmen running the exchanges and not aspergy geeks.
 
Lets me try again: For trading, $1200 bad, $12 good. money, money.

Still gibberish. Any price in this made up bitcoin world is potentially too high or too low to speculate with. Demand is artificial so price is not going to be rational. $1 million bitcoin is no better or worse than $0.01 bitcoin as it can be traded fractionally.
 
Guys, I honestly just don't have the patience anymore to correct all these mistakes.

I don't think you're a bunch of total morons, but there are a lot of errors that would literally take me a full workday out of my schedule here to shine light on so I'm just going to have to call this argument a wash.

@Benji: You don't know the half of it bro. Here's a list of literal direct attacks against bitcoin that have happened this month so far:

  1. Bitcoin Foundation VP Charlie Shrem arrested and jailed for Silk Road laundering...
  2. On the morning of the NewYork Regulation talks, which went pretty horribly, and pissed off a bunch of vocal bitcoiners at the state of new york.
  3. DPR formally Indicted on drugs & money laundering.
  4. Kazakhstan warns it's ppl against bitcoin.
  5. Apple removes the final bitcoin wallet from the app store!
  6. MtGox halts all withdrawals, panic sets in among its customers.
  7. The State of Florida runs a sting operation on LocalBitcoins sellers, arresting 2!
  8. Government of CYPRUS, yes, the same Cyprus that vaulted bitcoin's price into the stratusphere last year, issues a warning against bitcoin!
  9. A string of Coinbase wallet thefts causes a small panic and Coinbase has to assure everyone that the core safety problems are still 100%.
  10. RUSSIA Bans bitcoin! The #2 exchange, BTC-E, removes Ruble support.
  11. Mt.Gox Commits Seppuku by blaming the bitcoin Protocol for their recent errors!
  12. New sting of Mac malware starts stealing apple users' coins.
  13. ANOTHER new malware is spotted, this time a Ransomware, demands a ransome while it uses your PC to MINE BITCOIN!
  14. JPMorgan publishes report saying that bitcoin is "Vastly inferior" to fiat currency.
  15. The whole time, a "Massive concerted attack on the bitcoin network" has been ongoing from some unknown source, mostly using DDoS attacks, aimed the Exchanges, Pools, and wallet providers, all at the same time.
  16. Because of the attacks, Bitstamp, our #1 exchange, issued a temporary halt on all bitcoin withdrawals, and BTC-e announcing possible delays on transaction crediting because of this attack.
  17. Royal Bank of India issues harsh guidelines.
  18. Canada's Finance Minister announces they will apply more regulation to bitcoin soon.
  19. Central Bank of Greece issues it's first warning against bitcoin
  20. Silk Road 2 taken down, losing $2.6 Million, perhaps theft perhaps the state won, we don't know.
  21. New Jersey supeonas a developer for creating an innovative bitcoin mining program that they call malware.
  22. Promising Canadian exchange Cointrader's bank ditches them, leaves them without way to operate.
  23. Bank of Israel and the Israeli Ministry of Finance issue joint warnings against bitcoin.
  24. Estonian police shut down Estonia's main bitcoin exchange, btc.ee.
  25. Hungary's central bank warns it's ppl against bitcoin
  26. Brazil's central bank warns it's ppl against bitcoin
  27. Italy passes new money transmission law that applies a 20% fee to bitcoin transactions
  28. Thailand's central bank says once again: "no really, it's illegal, we swear!"
  29. Price on Mt Gox falls below $100
  30. The US creates a Digital Currency Task force with lawmakers from several different states
  31. Jordan bans businesses from touching bitcoin
  32. Gox dies in flames & drama
  33. Australian Gov says they've tracked every last satoshi sold on their continent
  34. JP Morgan report compares the Gox meltdown the financial meltdown of 2009
  35. Pony Botnet said to affect 30 different types of wallets & steals $220k worth of coins
  36. India raids the founder of an altcoin specifically for indians
  37. BTC.sx (a major crypto derivitives market) is shut down because it relied heavily on Gox
  38. US Senator Joe Manchin calls for an outright Ban on bitcoin

Needless to say, any one of these would have caused a massive panic sell-of half a year ago when bitcoin wasn't so hardy.

But today, all of these attacks against bitcoin were drowned out by all the GOOD news happening at the same time!

After all of these direct attacks against bitcoin by governments, hackers, internal bad actors, & after losing our most famous exchange completely, even the biggest opponents have to ask themselves now; "How did bitcoin Only lose 29% during this time??? How is it still alive at all?"

The answer is simple. Bitcoin is Antifragile.

You can count on the number of attacks increasing, but both the number of good news happening and the overall system strength both outpacing the number of attacks. At that rate bitcoin will be invincible, Holy and Sacred to all mankind within a few short years.


Now for your Zen moment of the day:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ1YI2H3O-Q"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JQ1YI2H3O-Q[/ame]

Apparently Bitcoin can indeed be pushed to the most stupid among us. /facepalm.gif
 
This two-bit idiot needs to get his facts straight. Jon was responsible for the interview, not Fox Business: "Although Mt. Gox CEO Mark Karpeles would only admit that the leaked document was “more or less authentic” during an interview with Fox Business, I have confirmed that it was, in fact, prepared by Mt. Gox representatives."

inb4 Jon sues Fox Business.
 
Guys, I honestly just don't have the patience anymore to correct all these mistakes.

I don't think you're a bunch of total morons, but there are a lot of errors that would literally take me a full workday out of my schedule here to shine light on so I'm just going to have to call this argument a wash.

@Benji: You don't know the half of it bro. Here's a list of literal direct attacks against bitcoin that have happened this month so far:

  1. Bitcoin Foundation VP Charlie Shrem arrested and jailed for Silk Road laundering...
  2. On the morning of the NewYork Regulation talks, which went pretty horribly, and pissed off a bunch of vocal bitcoiners at the state of new york.
  3. DPR formally Indicted on drugs & money laundering.
  4. Kazakhstan warns it's ppl against bitcoin.
  5. Apple removes the final bitcoin wallet from the app store!
  6. MtGox halts all withdrawals, panic sets in among its customers.
  7. The State of Florida runs a sting operation on LocalBitcoins sellers, arresting 2!
  8. Government of CYPRUS, yes, the same Cyprus that vaulted bitcoin's price into the stratusphere last year, issues a warning against bitcoin!
  9. A string of Coinbase wallet thefts causes a small panic and Coinbase has to assure everyone that the core safety problems are still 100%.
  10. RUSSIA Bans bitcoin! The #2 exchange, BTC-E, removes Ruble support.
  11. Mt.Gox Commits Seppuku by blaming the bitcoin Protocol for their recent errors!
  12. New sting of Mac malware starts stealing apple users' coins.
  13. ANOTHER new malware is spotted, this time a Ransomware, demands a ransome while it uses your PC to MINE BITCOIN!
  14. JPMorgan publishes report saying that bitcoin is "Vastly inferior" to fiat currency.
  15. The whole time, a "Massive concerted attack on the bitcoin network" has been ongoing from some unknown source, mostly using DDoS attacks, aimed the Exchanges, Pools, and wallet providers, all at the same time.
  16. Because of the attacks, Bitstamp, our #1 exchange, issued a temporary halt on all bitcoin withdrawals, and BTC-e announcing possible delays on transaction crediting because of this attack.
  17. Royal Bank of India issues harsh guidelines.
  18. Canada's Finance Minister announces they will apply more regulation to bitcoin soon.
  19. Central Bank of Greece issues it's first warning against bitcoin
  20. Silk Road 2 taken down, losing $2.6 Million, perhaps theft perhaps the state won, we don't know.
  21. New Jersey supeonas a developer for creating an innovative bitcoin mining program that they call malware.
  22. Promising Canadian exchange Cointrader's bank ditches them, leaves them without way to operate.
  23. Bank of Israel and the Israeli Ministry of Finance issue joint warnings against bitcoin.
  24. Estonian police shut down Estonia's main bitcoin exchange, btc.ee.
  25. Hungary's central bank warns it's ppl against bitcoin
  26. Brazil's central bank warns it's ppl against bitcoin
  27. Italy passes new money transmission law that applies a 20% fee to bitcoin transactions
  28. Thailand's central bank says once again: "no really, it's illegal, we swear!"
  29. Price on Mt Gox falls below $100
  30. The US creates a Digital Currency Task force with lawmakers from several different states
  31. Jordan bans businesses from touching bitcoin
  32. Gox dies in flames & drama
  33. Australian Gov says they've tracked every last satoshi sold on their continent
  34. JP Morgan report compares the Gox meltdown the financial meltdown of 2009
  35. Pony Botnet said to affect 30 different types of wallets & steals $220k worth of coins
  36. India raids the founder of an altcoin specifically for indians
  37. BTC.sx (a major crypto derivitives market) is shut down because it relied heavily on Gox
  38. US Senator Joe Manchin calls for an outright Ban on bitcoin

Needless to say, any one of these would have caused a massive panic sell-of half a year ago when bitcoin wasn't so hardy.

But today, all of these attacks against bitcoin were drowned out by all the GOOD news happening at the same time!

After all of these direct attacks against bitcoin by governments, hackers, internal bad actors, & after losing our most famous exchange completely, even the biggest opponents have to ask themselves now; "How did bitcoin Only lose 29% during this time??? How is it still alive at all?"

The answer is simple. Bitcoin is Antifragile.

You can count on the number of attacks increasing, but both the number of good news happening and the overall system strength both outpacing the number of attacks. At that rate bitcoin will be invincible, Holy and Sacred to all mankind within a few short years.


Now for your Zen moment of the day:

The Bitcoin Revolution Is Just Beginning (Full Interview) - YouTube

Apparently Bitcoin can indeed be pushed to the most stupid among us. /facepalm.gif

Luke, you are seriously wasting your time. What do you wait to write a book about BTC and Crypto and sell it on amazon...
 
Looks like they've filed for bankruptcy protection: UPDATED: Mt.Gox Files For Bankruptcy Protection, Says 850,000 Bitcoin Lost | TechCrunch

850k coins lost and outstanding debt of $63.6M

So what's this secret information that Jon kept to himself and the french dude didn't want to reveal? That it's actually 850k list coins not 650k? And 2 days ago it was temporarily missing and now it's gone?

Drama queens. Just fucking admit you're at the losing end of the biggest heist in human history.

I also don't understand where the $63m additional debt came from? They lost 850k coins AND owed money? Wtf?
 
thats such a joke...
And it was so clear the coins are lost.

The millions dept are a little suprise, but he got fat from nothing, i suppose.