Sorry about the late reply, Joe. It was xmas, what can I say?
That's not an answer, that's someone saying, "don't worry guys, it's not a threat. We won't tell you why it's not, but trust us, it's not"
Sorry about that, wrong article actually... It was some kind of "teaser" Coindesk article responding to this issue. Here's the one with meat in it:
Bitcoin mining network vulnerability 'not a big deal'
Why is a huge factory needed?
Right now there are factories in a half dozen different countries, and several in both china and the usa, that produce the Current crop of Asics... Together the shipped products including miners still mining on their GPU cars and other old equipment all add up to the current 10.2 Petahashes per second:
https://blockchain.info/charts/hash-rate
If you zoom that chart out, you'll see that the hash rate isn't simply going in an upwardly direction; It's practically doubling every month! Since the beginning of October, when it was already the most powerful network of computers on the face of the planet, the power has multiplied over 10 times.
So logic would dictate, if they set out to build a factory to produce 20 Petahashes worth of ASICs, by the time they produce them the hash rate will be over 200 petahashes... If they're competent enough to build such a tall order.
3. And? (although, they could easily time it with the launch of a new ASIC to create confusion)
We don't just know the time they launch; we know how many gigahashes are pushed out on which days.
This is required because miners want to know if a mining equipment company is bringing this hardware online themselves and mining the easy coins before shipping them out to miners... So literally, we can tell who created every last gigahash on the network and when. There are several analysts that track this stuff.
4. How? How do you find a way to determine real miners from NSA miners? 1700 IPs is a drop in the ocean.
It isn't an IP thing... It'd get traced at the company level, old-school with shipping address metadata.
So for instance, if we know that Butterfly Labs is the only one shipping out any major equipment in Feburary, 50 monarchs, for a total of 20 Terrahashes; and during Febuary 40 Terrahashes come online... Then eyebrows will be lifted, and Josh @ BFL would post to the community (if it's not already posted in real-time somewhere) the meta-data like which states how many GH were shipped to.
Then we just watch on
the miner map where the others are coming online and we'll even know which cities the fedcoats are mining from!