For some reason you grossly underestimate the power of the US .gov.
No, I do not.
They wont implement prohibition. Sure they may just shut down the ability get money in or out of BTC. Or maybe they will start a propaganda campaign. They trot out some random MIT grad who goes on a campaign explaining how the evil BTC hackers took him for everything. Maybe more and more people will start coming out and go on TV or on their FB acts telling how they got ripped off. Or maybe they show a family and talk about how dad lost the kids college money in a BTC scam. Or maybe they just DDOS all the exchanges and or wallets.
Was this meant to be a direct quote of mine? It's pretty damn close. Propaganda will be the #1 weapon, and putting a heavier hand on the exchanges will be the #2 weapon. I've said all this before. The thing is; the very large and active bitcoin community has been planning for these tactics since 2010 or so... Whatever the gov does has already been planned for years in advance.
...Then there is the fact that it would just be 1 government, while bitcoin is worldwide.
Related:
Today's news pushing up bitcoin's price? Australia just put their first-ever tax on all retirement accounts. A 15% haircut!
Welcome to bitcoin, ozzies.
Even if the US .gov decides to tolerate BTC, do not think for a second that they cant/wont control BTC. The same tactics above can/will be used to control everything that is BTC.
"Control bitcoin?"
You are clearly ignorant of what bitcoin is. Satoshi Nakamoto himself could not control it. You might as well credit the government with the power of controlling the flow of plasma on the surface of the sun.
I'd be curious how it could survive if the exchanges where all taken down.
What level of exchanges?
Just the top guys like Mt.Gox and BTC-E? None of those are american (yet) so it'd have to be a worldwide effort.
Or the middle level including all of the worldwide money uploaders? There would be over a hundered of those now in half as many countries.
Or did you mean the many, many websites/services/Apps that allow people to do person-to-person (Over the counter) exchanges too? I'm not even going to guess how many of those exist now... I doubt too many of them form legit businesses though...
In short, Uncle Sam is too late, and too limited. They can either step up their DDossing game to shut down the top 5-10 exchanges for long periods of time, or spend the big bucks to attempt a 51% attack on bitcoin itself.
I can't really see them getting organized enough to do either in time.
Adoption by world governments...
Bitcoin was specifically designed to NEVER be adopted by world governments.
It was designed to end them.
I think it's doing an incredible job.
Plus this shit about BTC and freedom is fucking BULLSHIT. It will not reach mass adoption just based on "freedom".
Mass adoption? As in displacing the primary currency in most regions?
No. It doesn't need to though.
The freedom people, like myself, are in bitcoin to educate others about freedom... That's our goal, not the public's goal, obviously.
However, naysay all you want, every time someone starts using bitcoin, they get educated about possibilities that uncle sam and other government never wanted them to know about.
Even the most sheeply of sheep will be learning a lot about freedom from bitcoin.
...buying and selling Bitcoins right now is more of a hassle than anything when you can just use the methods in place.
Properly formatted that for you.
* Realistic exchange rate stability to avoid speculation, manipulation, hoarding, acceptance risk. etc
This won't happen until the price is fully discovered. No one has any solid numbers on what area that could land in, and how many crashes we could have first.
...I'm personally guessing that it'll like go to $1000ish this time, crash back to $20-$100, then grow back to something like $100k per bitcoin in the next 5-10 years.
...THEN it should stabilize, given enough merchants and exchanges. So don't expect this any day soon.
* More exchange liquidity, ie quicker exchanges, no limits, etc
This is in the works, the bitcoin community is very active on this front and new exchanges and even trading platforms are announced almost daily.
Mt.Gox's move to Silicon Valley will likely provide a lot more of these benefits until uncle sam decides to lean on it hard one day.
* Guaranteed contractually obligated acceptance for universally useful goods/services by committed merchants.
Same as the first answer. Stability is required here.
Are these transactions based on people trading Bitcoin themselves or purchasing consumer goods. I can guess its not the latter.
I think he should have given you this chart instead:
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular
No exchanges, nor even gambling addresses in that one.
Clearly more people are USING bitcoin all the time. What do you expect to happen when more people buy it and then discover that they now have more purchasing power?
No one really gives two shits about spending Bitcoin right now. This could change but I seriously doubt it.
There are core industries of bitcoin USERS that you don't seem to think exist.
Both the black market and Gambling are dependent on bitcoin now... For this reason alone, bitcoin cannot die or get too small.
But if you keep up with the bitcointalk community boards (and no one really can, there are tens of thousands of new posts a day) then you will see that new services start up at an incredible pace, all which only take bitcoins.
The goal of that huge and dedicate community is clear: To REPLACE the existing economy with a bitcoin economy.
Laugh at them all you want, they won't notice.
They're too busy.