The Official Trading Thread



Hey mcGrunin,

I'm really currious; aside from your daily profit/loss:

What has been your net return on capital since you started trading?

As in, of total capital risked (not just with what you started; how much did you transfer from liquid cash into trading positions), what % have you cleared? (as in taking out and placing into liquid positions; not trading positions)


I always find daily trading profits, and 'trading positions' to be rather worthless as a gauge of success. Long term liquidity cleared is what matters.

He's making his broker rich - that's for sure.
 
Fantastic rebound today. +$22,000 for the day.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXrA3vEe4PA]August 22: +$22,000 Today // Killer Tesla Gains! - YouTube[/ame]

Much thanks to Tesla!
 
Horrible volume on GOOG today, shit went nowhere. Closing out until it starts moving a little more intraday.
 
2
Mgrunin what do you think of netflix?

I have called Netflix a long since break of $247. Since that break, it has been a quick trip up to the current levels. Hell..it went up just 3% today for a +$8.61. It definitely sucks that I did not take a trade in it today.

The stock finished today at its HOD. At this point, returning back to its all time high of $304.79 will very likely happen at this point. They have been taking great steps lately in growing their licensing deals.

I have some more questions.

1. Do you follow the Greeks, before making the trade? If so what Greeks do you follow?
2. How do you calculate historical volatility, if you sell options?
3. How long have you been trading?
4. What technical indicators and option strategy do you recommend for newbie like me? I know a bit about stock market and options, but don't have experience in trading, looking to get started.
5. Liquidity - How many trading option contracts would you consider liquid?

Thanks.

1) All the major ones, delta/gamma/theta/vega.
2) ThinkorSwim gives you access to historical volatility.
3) Bit less than 1.5 years.
4) Moving averages, RSI, MACD. Chart pattern knowledge is also major.
5) Question doesn't make too much sense.

Hey mcGrunin,

I'm really currious; aside from your daily profit/loss:

What has been your net return on capital since you started trading?

As in, of total capital risked (not just with what you started; how much did you transfer from liquid cash into trading positions), what % have you cleared? (as in taking out and placing into liquid positions; not trading positions)


I always find daily trading profits, and 'trading positions' to be rather worthless as a gauge of success. Long term liquidity cleared is what matters.

Gains are withdrawn on a monthly basis. Nearing half a mil since I started May 2012. Would be up much more but I took a nasty hit from October to January. Was up very well the whole year until those few months. Learned a great deal about discipline.

Horrible volume on GOOG today, shit went nowhere. Closing out until it starts moving a little more intraday.

Same. I have been holding Google since Tuesday, and kept holding due to the $870 support. But with the theta burn and the vega burning that came by, I had to sell for a loss today. >$880 is next long trigger.
 
Pretty good finish for the week. $5,500 gain today. Puts me at a bit over $20,000 for the week. $85,000 for the month.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVQp5PGDe5g"]August 23: +$5,519 gain today! // $85,919 for the month! - YouTube[/ame]
 
Syria forced the markets to really reverse their early gains. Went from a $30k day to a $7k day. Ouch..but I guess a gain is still a gain.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g_1s1r9_2js]Aug 26: Syria scares markets! $93,547 gain for August! - YouTube[/ame]
 
I wrote this piece earlier, I'll post it here:

Earlier in the day news began hitting the media that it is very likely that the Syrian government is utilizing chemical weapons against their own people. Secretary of State John Kerry made it clear that military response by the US may very soon be a reality.

A few stocks I follow did not take that news lightly:

v76f8NT.png


SPY went from a high of $167.30 to a low of $165.89 because of the Syrian news.

The mess over in Syria has been ongoing for weeks but it was only recently that headlines featuring the use of chemical weapons began appearing. If the US military will be forced to attack the Syrian government, you should very well expect for the markets to sell off. Remember, the markets do not like uncertainty, and war is just that, uncertainty. This is definitely that time of the year that you want to make sure that your brokerage accounts are available for futures trading. You never know when the market could drop 2-3% overnight, but you want to make sure to be able to hop on that action to either hedge your longs or profit.
 
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Soros built up a $1.25 billion short SPY position ...

Soros's biggest holding? A huge short position on the S&P 500 - The Tell - MarketWatch

And the news as it's being reported is following what political pundits say - that the East (Russia/China) is going to battle the West (US & allies, including Saudi Arabia and ) via proxy in Syria - at stake some say is currency denomination for oil production.

Saddam Hussein signed his death warrant when he conducted the US imposed oil for food sanctions in euros. A couple of years later, the US conquered his country, he was dead, and Iraqi oil is denominated in USD.

Shit is important. Both Bushes and Obama go to war over this - regardless of what popular sentiment is in the US (Unlike Obama, George Bush actually went to Congress for permission - I haven't seen a single anti-war protester in NYC's Union Squre since early November 2008 ... I wonder why?) ...

Soros is geopolitically minded and has been building this short for some time. Beware.
 
I bought some Sept 13 GOOG and FB Puts this morning. I'm going to go pickup some books on options trading today, great thread.
 
For those of you who trade I would recommend that you keep a log of your activity to see how well you are doing and it also gives you a chance to review pervious trades. . . since I started trading again late last year this is what I've logged. . .
rglmrwB.png
 
Soros built up a $1.25 billion short SPY position ...

Soros's biggest holding? A huge short position on the S&P 500 - The Tell - MarketWatch

And the news as it's being reported is following what political pundits say - that the East (Russia/China) is going to battle the West (US & allies, including Saudi Arabia and ) via proxy in Syria - at stake some say is currency denomination for oil production.

Saddam Hussein signed his death warrant when he conducted the US imposed oil for food sanctions in euros. A couple of years later, the US conquered his country, he was dead, and Iraqi oil is denominated in USD.

Shit is important. Both Bushes and Obama go to war over this - regardless of what popular sentiment is in the US (Unlike Obama, George Bush actually went to Congress for permission - I haven't seen a single anti-war protester in NYC's Union Squre since early November 2008 ... I wonder why?) ...

Soros is geopolitically minded and has been building this short for some time. Beware.

You may want to check your conspiracy theories at the door, Syria produces about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, which is about the same amount as Thailand. This has nothing to do with oil and everything to do with a government holding on to power by any means necessary
 
You may want to check your conspiracy theories at the door, Syria produces about 400,000 barrels of oil a day, which is about the same amount as Thailand. This has nothing to do with oil and everything to do with a government holding on to power by any means necessary
I didn't say this was about Syria's oil. In fact, I wasn't aware they produced any oil at all - I tend to think of that country as a classic Middle East "have not" when it comes to oil.

The theory goes that this fight is about the supremacy of the USD and, again, a proxy fight that's coming to a head in Syria. Just examine who's backing whom in this fight.

Assad (China, Russia, Iran) vs. rebels (US, UK, Saudi Arabia)

Was I being a conspiracist by implying that this fight was about more than WMDs? 200,000 dead in the fighting ... now there's a claim that 1,000 of those dead were killed by gas - so the whole world has to fight?

There are no good guys or bad guys here, really. Or maybe all the instigators are bad guys. Whatever. I just find Soros' position dovetailing with political punditry to be quite interesting and I suspect there's a connection. He possibly saw instability a long way off (many certainly saw this conflict from a long way off) and figured it would negatively impact the S&P 500.
 
Thanks to MGrunin posting those graphs last night and discussing Syria, I sold off all my long positions in AAPL and FB with a profit, then bought FB and GOOG puts, made some money on them then closed them out before the end of the day. I also bought 3 SPY puts at a strike price of $171 SEP 21 expiration ($8.24 premium), so I'm hoping the markets continue dropping tomorrow.
 
Thanks to MGrunin posting those graphs last night and discussing Syria, I sold off all my long positions in AAPL and FB with a profit, then bought FB and GOOG puts, made some money on them then closed them out before the end of the day. I also bought 3 SPY puts at a strike price of $171 SEP 21 expiration ($8.24 premium), so I'm hoping the markets continue dropping tomorrow.

Also looking for the markets to drop tomorrow. Unless something very positive comes out I'm thinking we continue the fall or at the least go sideways. Made some decent gains in YHOO puts today and will reopen if it falls further tomorrow, closed @ EOD due to the support @ 27. Holding GOOG puts open overnight and hoping that they break through support at 848 with the general selloff. Looking to open a long SRPT position if it drops into 32-33 territory. AAPL is still very overbought on the daily, expecting it to go sideways or lose some more ground but they do have a few announcements in the next couple days/weeks that could turn things around.
 
Video for Tuesday's action:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abGSOuVGUqM"]Aug 27: Worst loss in August - $36,512 loss today - YouTube[/ame]


Video for today's action:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XUp_2rasW0g"]Aug 27: Relief rally from Syria News - YouTube[/ame]