The Official Trading Thread

I look at it in a risk vs reward scenario. Google toppling $1,000 is a tall order. That is such a large physiological level that. To see that happen I believe Google will really need to make some blockbuster moves. The Google Glassses might be that move, but they do not have come until later this Fall. If sales are off the roof with that product than we could really see Google moving over that level.

If someone were to ask me which calls I would be most comfortable selling, it would be selling June Calls.
 


By the way, I grabbed a few Apple Calls when Apple was trading at $431. Currently the market price is $434.42. There is a good chance of this being an overnight position for me. It is currently battling to reclaim the 50 SMA, but if it does then $440 is in the cards today.
 
The reason I went long on Apple after that morning bounce was because we just witnessed a possible state of the art inverse head and shoulder pattern. This is a bullish pattern and a very reliable pattern.

f4HKJnT.png


I have labeled where the head is, and the left shoulder. The bounce that we had today to possibly form the right shoulder is exactly where the left one was formed.
 
your market timing skills are impeccable
anyway, i'm super bullish on google as well as the entire market, in general.
 
cpauser said:
your market timing skills are impeccable
anyway, i'm super bullish on google as well as the entire market, in general.
Click to expand...

Appreciate the comment. My entries are usually very good but I have a lot of work to do when it comes to my exits.

The nice thing is that since I have created this thread, every single one of my overnight positions was correct. That is a good flawless record. :)

Right now I have zero positions open. I am just waiting for the Michigan Sentiment & Leading Indicators report to come in. That will move the markets, and I will look for a position from that moment. As of right now the markets are fading from their highs 15 minutes ago.

Apple is already looking very poor, trading at $436.03. It had a high of $440.09 15 minutes ago. I actually sold everything right at that high!!
* Get in the habit of selling your calls on a resistance level touch and your puts on a support level touch.
 
Took some puts on Apple from $433.10 down to $431.35 for a measly 5.7% gain. Done with trading for the week, thanks!
 
I started trading a little more than one year ago. I have been treating it as seriously and trading as closely since day one though.
 
Throughout the night I will post analysis of all the stocks I want to cover this week.

The favorite: Apple

Q0mKJkC.png


Back to the annual chart, and I have pointed out all the resistance levels. This past week we had a strong bounce of the $419 support level. The first biggest resistance level that Apple is facing is $465, followed by $469. The most important one that will finally get Apple back into bull territory is closing over the $485 level. We are still far from all of those at the moment.

For intraday trades, if Apple trades under $430 = SHORT. If Apple trades above $441 = LONG.

On the macd we have a bearish crossing which is the first time ever since Apple has rallied from $385. That is obviously not a good sign for the bulls.

Monday will be an important day for Apple. It did finish trading under the 50 DMA. Not a good thing. The resistance level on the 50 DMA is at $435. That is the first immediate resistance. The 100 DMA is located at $456.

If Apple falls under $419 during this week, short the stock with both hands.
 
Gold is still being hammered left and right. It has attempted to bounce back after that 10%+ crash in April but it has been selling off very quickly once again.

Gold futures:

XxKb6UQ.png


The previous low is clearly labeled. The price is coming down and we might see a test of that low. If we obviously break below that low then expect all hell to break loose for Gold.

For Gold, I prefer to trade the ETF - GDX.

t2bP4Xa.png


Notice that for the ETF it has already set a new low this past Friday. Look at the price on the top right, it finished literally right near the low.

Shorting gold further from this level looks like a good play especially while our equity markets continue rallying. More money will keep leaving gold and head into the equity markets instead.

Shorting gold here, and selling when Gold Futures reaches the prior low looks good.
 
Taking a look at the S&P index, but specifically the S&P futures. The resistance line I pointed out a couple days ago is still confirming. There is difficulty in breaking above it.

vhnn9hF.png


The activity on Friday placed us right at the level again, and now it will be up to this week to see if S&P can finally break out of this rising resistance. If it does...then 1700 S&P in May is not an impossible fleet.
 
The main difficulty in technical analysis is finding the right pattern. IMO the right pattern is the one that most technical analyzers see because tech analysis is pretty much only useful because of psychological reasons.

Most people say that the longer the trend the more important it is. This trend I made shows that for the majority of the last 3 years we've been trading in a Symmetrical Triangle (log graph).

So mgrunin I think the more important trend breakout was actually back in Jan/Feb. Not to mention the even longer 15 year trend that was destroyed when the S&P500 solidly broke though 1570 or so.

IMO we're already in serious uncharted bull market territory. But who knows if the end of QE will have a major effect or not.

I4CtkMu.jpg
 
WickedJoe said:
The main difficulty in technical analysis is finding the right pattern. IMO the right pattern is the one that most technical analyzers see because tech analysis is pretty much only useful because of psychological reasons.

Most people say that the longer the trend the more important it is. This trend I made shows that for the majority of the last 3 years we've been trading in a Symmetrical Triangle (log graph).

So mgrunin I think the more important trend breakout was actually back in Jan/Feb. Not to mention the even longer 15 year trend that was destroyed when the S&P500 solidly broke though 1570 or so.

IMO we're already in serious uncharted bull market territory. But who knows if the end of QE will have a major effect or not.

I4CtkMu.jpg
Click to expand...

You made a great point. The most important breakout did occur in January that has sent us on this bull run, I was just trying to see if it is worth still being a bull at these levels. Since we are hugging that resistance so closely, the risk vs reward towards putting in a long trade isn't necessarily worth it. If it does break over that resistance, I feel that this is a clear indicator that this bull run can continue, so opening long positions then make the most sense.
 
mGrunin said:
You made a great point. The most important breakout did occur in January that has sent us on this bull run, I was just trying to see if it is worth still being a bull at these levels. Since we are hugging that resistance so closely, the risk vs reward towards putting in a long trade isn't necessarily worth it. If it does break over that resistance, I feel that this is a clear indicator that this bull run can continue, so opening long positions then make the most sense.
Click to expand...

Hard to say, I do a lot better at trading when the market actually has corrections. I don't know what to make of things when it's constantly going up without a break. I have a hard time buying on the highs.. I prob would have made no money during the 90's while everyone else was cashing in. Your short term outlook on things is possibly the way to go.

mGrunin said:
Gold Futures are continuing to drop. We might even see a test of the prior low today!
Click to expand...

Ya i watch gold and silver a lot. It reminds me that I didn't buy near the peak like so many others did and adds to my caution (I'm not as short term of a trader as you). Sure it's a hedge against inflation but most people didn't bother to think about how a gold bubble bursting can be more destructive to your wealth than the effects of dollar inflation during the course our our short lives.

When even shadowstats says consumer inflation for a year is 8% but gold goes up 100% in the same amount of time then you have yourself a disconnect.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A"]Tom Petty - Free Fallin' - YouTube[/ame]
 
WickedJoe said:
Hard to say, I do a lot better at trading when the market actually has corrections. I don't know what to make of things when it's constantly going up without a break. I have a hard time buying on the highs.. I prob would have made no money during the 90's while everyone else was cashing in. Your short term outlook on things is possibly the way to go.



Ya i watch gold and silver a lot. It reminds me that I didn't buy near the peak like so many others did and adds to my caution (I'm not as short term of a trader as you). Sure it's a hedge against inflation but most people didn't bother to think about how a gold bubble bursting can be more destructive to your wealth than the effects of dollar inflation during the course our our short lives.

When even shadowstats says consumer inflation for a year is 8% but gold goes up 100% in the same amount of time then you have yourself a disconnect.

Tom Petty - Free Fallin' - YouTube
Click to expand...

I also do not like the markets at their levels. It is much easier to make money when the markets are selling off. I would definitely not be comfortable in holding any index long positions overnight.

Fairly good article to read that should give the bears an idea as to what it would take for the markets to finally go through a major correction. This CNBC article covers the statements by the Federal Reserve that they might be cutting back on the stimulus soon. They do realize that the longer the keep providing stimuli at the rate that they currently are, the bigger the adverse effect will be when they decide to cut the stimulus all together. Once investors come to know that the Fed is not artificially holding the markets up, all hell will break loose with many investors running to sell their positions.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100748943
 
Covering Google for this coming week, there is a clear support and resistance to look out for. We had Google pass over $900 this week, and bounced off it several times throughout the week. It was not able to test the $920 level since Thursday, so that is definitely something you want to look after for.

OqN66ZE.png
 
better look out guys, i got my ameritrade account set up.
9/10 times when i buy it's the top
 
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