The Official Trading Thread

mGrunin

mGrunin

New member
Jul 18, 2009
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Considering the interest in trading between members here, I figured it would be beneficial to have a central thread to discuss everything in regards to the markets.

This thread can be used to house conservations revolving:

  • Market conditions (Domestically & Globally)
  • Trading Strategies
  • Charts/Indicators/Technicals
  • Company News
Recommended reading for those looking to trade:

I highly recommend using Ameritrade as your trading platform. Make sure to download their "Think or Swim" software.
 
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The month of May is just a few days away and is always a crucial time of every year. Without fail, May tends to be when the markets change direction and begin their way down. The media does a great job in reminding retail investors over and over again to close of their positions and take the next few months off. Lets look at how May has performed for the markets in the last three years:

2010:

8KGrJDG.png


2011:

RlJKhYq.png


2012:

sVjQmvV.png


It is quite clear that a change in direction for the markets would typically occur in May. In the past three years, the markets would be reaching their highs for the year right before correcting in the month in May. Guess what, right now the markets are not only at their highs for the year, but also all-time highs.

Purchasing puts into QQQ, SPY, SPX or index futures is beginning to look very attractive for the coming weeks.
 
Finally, a real way to make money is revealed on WF. That Think or Swim software, is that what's pictured above?

Edit: NM, just saw the Ameritrade mark on them.
 
Moving into Apple, this week we saw positive price action following the earnings release. Lets look at the chart:

lWUe9x2.png


Notice how Apple has been respecting that downward resistance line from the very top. We almost had a break in March at $460, but the selling pressure was too great at the resistance. Here we are again coming very close to this major resistance.

Unlike the last time, we have two things that we did not have before:

  • Large volume on upticks. This is the first time in this whole downtrend that we have seen Apple picking pushed up on high volume. This is a very good sign that institutional might be picking up Apple once again. If I back the chart up several years, you will notice that once large volume starts hitting Apple on the upside, Apple then goes into a strong rally.
  • RSI. (Relative Strength Index) (The yellow line indicator at the bottom) The last time we tested the resistance, our RSI was at overbought territory. This time around, we are not overbrought, so we can expect continuing buying before a correction in selling.
I am fairly sure that we will be testing the resistance this week and if we do see a break then $440 by week's end is definitely possible.

The support at $400.00 is also looking solid. If you were to open a position now, have a stop loss at $395.

PODCu5r.png
 
I'm really astounded at the info and time mGrunin is giving. This is better than most investment forums ever get. If he wasn't already a WF superstar and me a lowly noobtard, I'd plus rep him big time
 
Dude.don' t act like we forget about those apple options just because you made a new thread. I imagine it was a total loss. Fess up
 
cpauser said:
Dude.don' t act like we forget about those apple options just because you made a new thread. I imagine it was a total loss. Fess up
Click to expand...

You mean these?

These are all APR4 13 expirations.

Calls:
BTO 430
SELL 435

Puts:
BTO 350
STO 345

I have a larger position in calls than I do in puts. I did open those puts up as a hedge and quite far OTM but definitely possible to pick up solid gains on a bad report. I should be fine in either direction really. If it misses, I should walk away with minor losses, if it beats then close to 300% return.

Keep in mind that I opened these positions with very little capital. Speculating on earning reports is a total gamble so its best to use an insignificant amount of money if you just want to partake in the action.
Click to expand...

Where I specifically state that I am just taking a gamble just for the action, and used very little capital?
 
A look into Google. I've been posting my expectations on Google in the other Google thread for a few months. I initially called a short at $835 and was right on the money with it. We saw Google come down to $765 from that point.

Last week when Google was at $799 I called a buy especially if we see a strong break past $810. Google did up pushing to $817 in the coming days but has come down since then. In the chart below you can see a prior consolidation zone that Google took part weeks ago which proved to be a resistance for this week as well.

Since we just had a positive earnings report from Google, it is discouraging to see it struggling at that level. If we break below $800 below, we will probably see another flush down to the $785 level.

lvWGI3K.png
 
Yup, I already bought some SH ETF recently (it shorts the S&P 500). It's an easy way to short for those not wanting to fuck with margins.

But the whole 'sell in may and go away' thing is so popular I wouldn't be surprised if it did the opposite this year. I think the make or break moment will be Friday when the jobs report come out. If it's good, I'll likely sell the SH.
 
WickedJoe said:
Yup, I already bought some SH ETF recently (it shorts the S&P 500). It's an easy way to short for those not wanting to fuck with margins.

But the whole 'sell in may and go away' thing is so popular I wouldn't be surprised if it did the opposite this year. I think the make or break moment will be Friday when the jobs report come out. If it's good, I'll likely sell the SH.
Click to expand...

Yep, Friday will be a big day. If I remember properly last month's job numbers came in poorly. If we miss expectations this Friday, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2% drop in the markets. I would definitely open up short positions at the open if there is a miss.
 
cpauser said:
Dude.don' t act like we forget about those apple options just because you made a new thread. I imagine it was a total loss. Fess up
Click to expand...

Whether he makes or loses money makes no difference. At least he's swinging the bat and documenting what he's doing for everyone to see and learn from. What have you contributed to this place lately?
 
mGrunin said:
Yep, Friday will be a big day. If I remember properly last month's job numbers came in poorly. If we miss expectations this Friday, then I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2% drop in the markets. I would definitely open up short positions at the open if there is a miss.
Click to expand...

I don't think its too to much to ask on a trading thread to produce a p&l statement on recent trades. But if the job report is god awful and the market tanks you actually want to buy thedip history has shown.
 
cpauser said:
I don't think its too to much to ask on a trading thread to produce a p&l statement on recent trades. But if the job report is god awful and the market tanks you actually want to buy thedip history has shown.
Click to expand...

This fuck is now trying to derail a soon to be epic mgrunin thread. Many have already asked for his banning, this should be the final straw. Mods?
 
cpauser said:
I don't think its too to much to ask on a trading thread to produce a p&l statement on recent trades. But if the job report is god awful and the market tanks you actually want to buy thedip history has shown.
Click to expand...

That is too much to ask since I didn't make this thread to prove myself.

But I will play your game. I am currently holding onto MAY 2 13 $420 AAPL CALLS. Got in at $6.15; current market price is $6.175 on the option.

I also have a short straddle at-the-money setup for Apple, vertical calls and puts expiring this week. Slightly up on the position right now while I am long theta. Close above $409 for the week or close below $395 is maximum gain.

Last week I had a short straddle at-the-money setup for Google, same thing - vertical calls and puts. $693 entry on the positions. $697+ was maximum gain territory. The stock finished the week at $801.

Keep one thing in mind, there is nothing wrong with being wrong on a trade. That isn't a "mistake". As long as you were disciplined entering the position AND exiting the position, then you did the right thing. You will always have losers in trading, it is a matter of minimizing your losing trades and maximizing your winning trades.
 
p0ck3taces said:
This fuck is now trying to derail a soon to be epic mgrunin thread. Many have already asked for his banning, this should be the final straw. Mods?
Click to expand...

How is asking a question derailing a thread your heighness. They can ban me and I'll still be rich . u'll still be u lol. Now I know more about options than I did earlier by reading about the short straddle method. Zecco too bad doesn't allow it on my account
 
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