Bitcoin: The Second Biggest Ponzi Scheme in History

Gary North


I like how he wrote a "long" article about Ponzi schemes and history, but didn't actually mention Charles Ponzi.

edit : Actually he mentioned him once, but didn't really explain what he did or anything.



Yet when you buy it, you dont buy it because you want to do something industrial or medical with it. Most people dont even buy gold. They buy a gold ETF. Which is theoretically exchangeable for gold but practically, if shit ever went that sour, theyd just not exchange it. Stocks are the same. Dont tell me anyone who trades in stocks wants (partial) control of the company.

Its cute. All the ways people fool themselves. dont buy coins and youve got nothing to worry about. By not buying coins, youre short coins. Youre short gold. Youre short everything you dont buy. If you cant liberate yourself from the idea that dollars are that one and only measurement of your accumulated wealth, trading anything isnt for you.

LukeP is probably counting his worth in coins. To him, the dollar price doesnt matter. Hes seeing the amount of coins hes got. And youre calling him a whackjob. But thats no different from putting a dollar price tag on everything you own. Hes bought the idea that bitcoin will become the worlds reserve. You dont. Maybe youre right, but youre doing the same thing.

Do you normally not use apostrophes and I've just never noticed before?
 


In a ponzi scheme, the balance sheet doesn't balance. I think that people who write stuff like that look like idiots sort of like when Guerilla tries to compare this to the Tulip craze.

Also, BTC doesn't have an industrial use, but if you look at the protocol extensions as they are being added, it solves a lot of social problems. And I think someone could make the argument that it's backed in 1) technology (the time and effort to develop the scheme), it's backed in 2) the blockchain. Having a record of every single transaction ever all the while keeping the protocol relatively anonymous is one of the most important human developments I can imagine, and finally, it's backed in 3) computational algorithms which are being made more and more efficient in order to make btc mining more efficient.

I think we forget what money is, it's stored value, it's a representation of value. People keep trying to commodify BTC, but it is regularly used as money to buy and sell goods, and it is highly liquid, almost as liquid as cash. It behaves more like money than anything else ever has, it solves a lot of problems, and a lot of people are using it as a representation of value. Sounds to me like its value is fairly obvious. Oh, and its basically infinitely divisible, so that's awesome.
 
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Not to knock bitcoin, but gold (and silver) has a shit ton of industrial and medical uses so it has actual economic utility beyond the obvious shiny jewelry.

Money is just a way of avoiding barter by adopting a token. So that if you want to swap your cows for come clothes you don't actually have to hunt high and low for a tailor who has a need of cows.

It doesn't matter what they token is, as long as everyone agrees that the token selected will be the way you exchange of one good for another. Tokens have been cowries in the past.

The only reason gold was adopted back in the day was because it didn't oxidize and you didn't find yourself losing bits of your token because it had rusted away. Gold wasn't selected because it had "economic utility beyond shiny jewelry". Hell, if you demanded your token had economic utility you could use cars or bikes as your token instead - they could be a unit of exchange and a way to get you from A to B at the same time! (though they have the same rusting problem as iron tokens)

Bitcoin acts perfectly as a token of exchange. It doesn't rust. It's standardized and you don't have to worry that the weight of your coin is wrong (as you did with gold coins that had bits shaved off). You can trade it for other tokens (aka dollars, pounds or euros) or spend it directly in bitcoin shops. Everytime someone sells some coins for dollars, and then spends those dollars, they have indirectly used bitcoin as a unit of exchange. In the same way as when someone from the USA exchanges their dollars for euros and then uses those euros to buy some French champagne, both the dollar and the euro are units of exchange, it's not the case that only the token swapped for the champagne is money, all the tokens in the sequence are money.

Also consider this point: in the offline world, the government of your territory issues cash, and you can spend this without incurring a transaction fee each time. It's only if you choose to use a middle man like a credit card that a transaction fee is exacted (on the retailer). Since the 70's, this rentier class has been trying to get everyone to stop using cash and use their unnecessary middleman sevices instead. They've even been lobbying govts to abolish cash (using drugs and terrorism as an excuse) - but govts have been holding back because they don't really want to transfer power from themselves to these middle men.

Online, every single transaction goes through these middle men, as you can't use cash. So all commerce online has a tax on it, only it doesn't go to any government, it goes to VISA. It's a power grab by a non-government corporation. Bitcoin restores the offline ability to buy and sell without paying a transaction fee to a middleman, because it functions like cash. If I was a government I'd be pleased about it - history shows that removing rentier classes increases economic activity.

There's also nothing to stop a government from using the open source protocol and issuing OfficialDollarCoin (or some such thing) which is an official dollar just like the one with Benjamin Franklin's face on it, and functions like cash dollars, but just online. Then the citizen gets to spend online without having to pay fees to the rentier class (i.e. the government is restoring their offline rights, online). And they can hold these along with holding bitcoins and euros and pounds and whatever else they want to hold.

Bitcoin is such an exciting technology we really don't know how it is going to play out and how it is ultimately going to be used. It's too early to say.
 
It just needs to stabilize, as it looks like now is pure speculative object. When it stabilizes I can see how it can become money. But that's long way ahead, as many people's businesses would be destroyed in the process.

Wondering, what would the fees be in the following situation, if I don't have credit cards, or don't want to use paypal and wires. If you want to buy a bitcoin using dollars online, send the BTC to your service provider, and then he exchanges it for USD.

All this assuming the value of BTC at the moment I sent it and the moment he withdraws it to USD is the same.
 
Money is just a way of avoiding barter by adopting a token. So that if you want to swap your cows for come clothes you don't actually have to hunt high and low for a tailor who has a need of cows.

It doesn't matter what they token is, as long as everyone agrees that the token selected will be the way you exchange of one good for another. Tokens have been cowries in the past.

The only reason gold was adopted back in the day was because it didn't oxidize and you didn't find yourself losing bits of your token because it had rusted away. Gold wasn't selected because it had "economic utility beyond shiny jewelry". Hell, if you demanded your token had economic utility you could use cars or bikes as your token instead - they could be a unit of exchange and a way to get you from A to B at the same time! (though they have the same rusting problem as iron tokens)

Bitcoin acts perfectly as a token of exchange. It doesn't rust. It's standardized and you don't have to worry that the weight of your coin is wrong (as you did with gold coins that had bits shaved off). You can trade it for other tokens (aka dollars, pounds or euros) or spend it directly in bitcoin shops. Everytime someone sells some coins for dollars, and then spends those dollars, they have indirectly used bitcoin as a unit of exchange. In the same way as when someone from the USA exchanges their dollars for euros and then uses those euros to buy some French champagne, both the dollar and the euro are units of exchange, it's not the case that only the token swapped for the champagne is money, all the tokens in the sequence are money.

Also consider this point: in the offline world, the government of your territory issues cash, and you can spend this without incurring a transaction fee each time. It's only if you choose to use a middle man like a credit card that a transaction fee is exacted (on the retailer). Since the 70's, this rentier class has been trying to get everyone to stop using cash and use their unnecessary middleman sevices instead. They've even been lobbying govts to abolish cash (using drugs and terrorism as an excuse) - but govts have been holding back because they don't really want to transfer power from themselves to these middle men.

Online, every single transaction goes through these middle men, as you can't use cash. So all commerce online has a tax on it, only it doesn't go to any government, it goes to VISA. It's a power grab by a non-government corporation. Bitcoin restores the offline ability to buy and sell without paying a transaction fee to a middleman, because it functions like cash. If I was a government I'd be pleased about it - history shows that removing rentier classes increases economic activity.

There's also nothing to stop a government from using the open source protocol and issuing OfficialDollarCoin (or some such thing) which is an official dollar just like the one with Benjamin Franklin's face on it, and functions like cash dollars, but just online. Then the citizen gets to spend online without having to pay fees to the rentier class (i.e. the government is restoring their offline rights, online). And they can hold these along with holding bitcoins and euros and pounds and whatever else they want to hold.

Bitcoin is such an exciting technology we really don't know how it is going to play out and how it is ultimately going to be used. It's too early to say.

You have an extremely naive view of the way governments operate.
 
I'm extremely drunk and I still find the idea that we should miss allocate massive grids of high end computers to solving overly complicated hashes based on a mathmatical scheme designed to enrich the founders / early adopters inherently ridiculous.

Bit coin is a fundamentally flawed concept. The only real world use for something like this is if you're doing something sketchy and want to get around the roadblocks governments set up to keep you from laundering your cash.

Which in itself is a huge disadvantage because its a great way to piss off the worlds biggest mafias (mainly the united states).

What a dumb idea.

-- Then again if you got in early, you would be a damned fool not to preach the virtues and attack anyone pointing out the obvious. Theirs cash to be made. As the network marketing guys say, somebody had to get it early.

By all means preach on, if you have a vested interest. Rip those damn peasants off. The core concepts are still stupid, illogical and a colossal miss-allocation of computing resources that could be used for doing something productive for the world.
 
Enjoy the speculation qua speculation. You don't need to rationalize it. It's a mania that will make some people and break some people. Plain and simple.

Hopefully you will make money. If you become a true believer, it will cloud your judgment when it is time to sell. "Faith" can be expensive.

IIRC, the "founder" of Bitcoin is sitting on a wallet with 1/12th of all BTC mined to date. The lesson for me is that it is better to start a new coin than it is to mine and trade coins made by someone else.

YMMV.
 
Why don't people seem to think bitcoin and "normal money" can coexist? It seems like either you have to think bitcoin will take over the world and become the only money we use, or you have to think the dollar/euro/etc will reign supreme and bitcoin will fade into obscurity.

Why not both?
 
Enjoy the speculation qua speculation. You don't need to rationalize it. It's a mania that will make some people and break some people. Plain and simple.

Hopefully you will make money. If you become a true believer, it will cloud your judgment when it is time to sell. "Faith" can be expensive.

IIRC, the "founder" of Bitcoin is sitting on a wallet with 1/12th of all BTC mined to date. The lesson for me is that it is better to start a new coin than it is to mine and trade coins made by someone else.

YMMV.

Uh oh, Guerilla read another book and thinks that no one else can talk about economics competently but him. Btw, Guerilla, "qua" isn't a $10 word. And, might I add, you don't have any idea what you're talking about. None of your arguments are rational, nor are they based on any economics. Please show me a graph based on math that indicates what the real price of BTC is since you seem to know. Explain to me why the market price is inflated, since you seem to know. Give me an indication of what factors into your economic model, since that is what an economist would do. I'd like to see it, because real economists don't do talking out of their ass qua talking out of their ass.

You have NO idea whether this is speculation or whether the actual value of btc is reflected in the current price. Whether this is speculation or not has everything to do with millions of variables that you have no control of: international monetary policy, number of users who adopt and begin actually purchasing goods with the currency (which does in fact happen on a regular basis), the continued liquidity of the market, a continued and real reason to use btc (anonymity, laundering, etc).

But you haven't raised any reasonable concerns about it ever save for un-updated, antiquated Austrian theses. Even big-name adopters of Austrian economics have begun to change their tune on BTC. Why? Because when Mises wrote his masterpiece, the internet didn't exist. Maybe you didn't know that. So this sort of thing wasn't feasible. It couldn't enter into the theory of money. So instead of ascribing 100% to a dead guy's work on financial markets, think for yourself for a change. Why the hell would you spend so much time spewing someone else's ideas without actually having any of your own?
 
Uh oh, Guerilla read another book and thinks that no one else can talk about economics competently but him. Btw, Guerilla, "qua" isn't a $10 word. And, might I add, you don't have any idea what you're talking about. None of your arguments are rational, nor are they based on any economics. Please show me a graph based on math that indicates what the real price of BTC is since you seem to know. Explain to me why the market price is inflated, since you seem to know. Give me an indication of what factors into your economic model, since that is what an economist would do. I'd like to see it, because real economists don't do talking out of their ass qua talking out of their ass.

You have NO idea whether this is speculation or whether the actual value of btc is reflected in the current price. Whether this is speculation or not has everything to do with millions of variables that you have no control of: international monetary policy, number of users who adopt and begin actually purchasing goods with the currency (which does in fact happen on a regular basis), the continued liquidity of the market, a continued and real reason to use btc (anonymity, laundering, etc).

But you haven't raised any reasonable concerns about it ever save for un-updated, antiquated Austrian theses. Even big-name adopters of Austrian economics have begun to change their tune on BTC. Why? Because when Mises wrote his masterpiece, the internet didn't exist. Maybe you didn't know that. So this sort of thing wasn't feasible. It couldn't enter into the theory of money. So instead of ascribing 100% to a dead guy's work on financial markets, think for yourself for a change. Why the hell would you spend so much time spewing someone else's ideas without actually having any of your own?



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Uh oh, Guerilla read another book and thinks that no one else can talk about economics competently but him.
My post in this thread was about philosophy not economics.

Btw, Guerilla, "qua" isn't a $10 word.
It's latin.

And, might I add, you don't have any idea what you're talking about. None of your arguments are rational, nor are they based on any economics.
Up to this point you still haven't specifically addressed my argument. It's all ad hominem thus far (that's also latin).

Please show me a graph based on math that indicates what the real price of BTC is since you seem to know.
I don't remember claiming I knew Bitcoin's price.

Also, "graph based on math" LOL. As opposed to a graph based on ???

Explain to me why the market price is inflated, since you seem to know.
The market price is the market price. If you've ever read my posts, I would never indicate a "market price" was inflated.

Give me an indication of what factors into your economic model, since that is what an economist would do. I'd like to see it, because real economists don't do talking out of their ass qua talking out of their ass.
I think you're confusing econometrics with economics. Which is normal for someone who doesn't understand economics.

You have NO idea whether this is speculation or whether the actual value of btc is reflected in the current price.
There is no such thing as an "actual value".

Whether this is speculation or not has everything to do with millions of variables that you have no control of: international monetary policy, number of users who adopt and begin actually purchasing goods with the currency (which does in fact happen on a regular basis), the continued liquidity of the market, a continued and real reason to use btc (anonymity, laundering, etc).
If you're buying BTC (as many people here are) to watch it appreciate in price, rather than using it as a medium of exchange, then you are speculating.

I'd guess that most of the upward price movement isn't due to people buying BTC to use as a medium of exchange, as people would lose purchasing power as the price rises.

Thus, I'd think it's a speculation.

But you haven't raised any reasonable concerns about it ever save for un-updated, antiquated Austrian theses.
I think you mean theories. I don't recall posting anything about Austrianism in awhile.

Is this another one of your rant posts where you haven't actually read what you're responding to?

Even big-name adopters of Austrian economics have begun to change their tune on BTC.
That's an appeal to authority, ironically you're appealing to the same people you claim do not have authority.

BWhy? Because when Mises wrote his masterpiece, the internet didn't exist. Maybe you didn't know that. So this sort of thing wasn't feasible. It couldn't enter into the theory of money. So instead of ascribing 100% to a dead guy's work on financial markets, think for yourself for a change. Why the hell would you spend so much time spewing someone else's ideas without actually having any of your own?
I am wondering how you can criticize anything Mises wrote, when you haven't read any of it, let alone comprehend any of it.

I think that's lazy, and it's intellectually dishonest.

If you had read anything by Mises, you'd know that the idiotic "the internet didn't exist" argument doesn't apply.

Nowhere in your post did you actually address anything substantive that I said. If you were intellectually honest, that would really bother you to write something like that.

I've sort of burnt out on arguing with random mongoloids on the internet. So like,

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWdd6_ZxX8c]Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man. - YouTube[/ame]