Bitcoin breaks $200
- Thread starter schockergd
- Start date
So the question I have is... Was the frantic drop in value associated with the technical issues (lag) that mtgox experienced yesterday due to simply too many accounts/traffic? It looks like that's what they are saying. And if so, that's just a problem with this particular third party exchange, not really a knock against bitcoin itself.
Note: I'm neither for nor against it (though I do want to see key aspects of it succeed or at least adopted in the future), I don't have a lot of $ in btc. Just curious.
Note: I'm neither for nor against it (though I do want to see key aspects of it succeed or at least adopted in the future), I don't have a lot of $ in btc. Just curious.
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T3imSKAvgmY]A brief history of the DOW jones - YouTube[/ame]
Fucking genius. When MtGox reopens at 7PM PST get your popcorn ready for the main event.
Your typical Redditor on BTC :
It's simply supply and demand. Not enough buyers to cover the selling.
The tech issues just add to the panic.
The only ones doing tech analysis on the charts are the pumpers in denial trying to justify the outrageous swings of a worthless commodity.
As soon as I saw somebody say "It's been above $200 for almost a full day, so it's obviously not a bubble" (paraphrased) I realized something...
Actually, this rise and fall are following very typical technical patterns. Patterns exist because markets are emotional and emotions exist and the actions from those emotions create predictable patterns.
Like today. The stock fell right to $50 and bounced. It will fall to $50 again soon.
Now to predict that bitcoin will grow to be worth XYZ based a technical analysis is false technical analysis.
But to predict where it will rise and fall in the patterns it is in right now, is pretty easy to do.
No, patterns exist because humans have a tendency to identify patterns in randomness. Chaos makes us uneasy.
It's easy to point out a pattern after the fact because you can pick and choose which method to use to best fit the data.
There's a reason there are few, if any, long term successful technical analysis dudes. There are some who kill it during booms, of course, but basically none will survive through the inevitable crash and followup booms.
He's been collecting them for ages and bought in cheap I believe.
I do hope he's not feeling like:
He's been collecting them for ages and bought in cheap I believe.
I do hope he's not feeling like:
obv. he is because you can't lose 75% of your $ and not feel fucked up
Technical analysis becomes relevant when enough people use it. Although using it with the Bitcoin market is obviously quite different when comparing it with real companies that have outstanding shares, earnings, etc.
We are talking a fixed supply of currency. If I was trying to make some $$ with guessing the floor of the price of bitcoins I'd be looking at where the big momentum investors jumped in and started really moving the needle.
You can see in the chart below that the masses and/or deep pocket individuals started buying up big blocks around the $20 mark and the hyperbole bubble really got going at in the $40-$50 range.
Now I personally wouldn't put a dime into this ridiculousness but if I had to guess where the short-term bottom is, I'd say it's around the $20-$40 range. The Bitcoin fanboy's will be back and with a fixed supply the hoarders will likely drive the price back up.
