How likely a team is to win has nothing to do with the profitability of the bet, if you and the betting site for whatever reason know, if someone is likely to win 99% of the time , the line is going to be set so that the 1 time you do lose, you lose more than the 99 times you win. Sure you could bet 10 times on this and you would most likely win 10 times, but still the risk you are taking is at a loss. The way you acn make money from Sports betting is not by finding things that are likely to win, but finding places where people have made a bad line, the odds for betting are made by humans, and humans make mistakes, if you stumble over a mistake made by a betting site where you think the odds are favorable then that is where you bet. Unless you spend several hours a day studying the sport, the teams, the conditions and scouring the internet for different lines on specific matches though, you are probably going to be wrong when you think you have found a profitable bet.
any gamblers on wf?
- Thread starter wickedDUDE
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How likely a team is to win has nothing to do with the profitability of the bet, if you and the betting site for whatever reason know, if someone is likely to win 99% of the time , the line is going to be set so that the 1 time you do lose, you lose more than the 99 times you win. Sure you could bet 10 times on this and you would most likely win 10 times, but still the risk you are taking is at a loss. The way you acn make money from Sports betting is not by finding things that are likely to win, but finding places where people have made a bad line, the odds for betting are made by humans, and humans make mistakes, if you stumble over a mistake made by a betting site where you think the odds are favorable then that is where you bet. Unless you spend several hours a day studying the sport, the teams, the conditions and scouring the internet for different lines on specific matches though, you are probably going to be wrong when you think you have found a profitable bet.
not a big fan of roulette. I was in Vegas in late Feb. to play golf at TPC. Spent most evenings in the casino.. my buddy was getting tired and dumped a 25 chip on the inside, 36 I think and BAM.. he hit. I never get that lucky.. bastard.. paid for his whole trip right there.. If you gonna play the outside on roulette its best to search out a table with a single 0 and no double 00. They are hard to find but worth the effort.
Every spin is independent, and the wheel has no memory of previous spins. But how often do you see 20+ blacks or reds appearing consecutively?
It is rare to see even 7 or 8 consecutive colors in a row. There was one time where I saw 16 consecutive colors, in all the times that I've been...
Seems extremely unlikely that's all...
Check out this link:
http://www.playroulette.co.uk/articles/odds-of-10reds-in-a-row-in-roulette.html
"Anyone knows that odds for the same event to occur several consecutive times in a series of independent plays of a game are very low. This applies for any game of chance, including roulette."
It is rare to see even 7 or 8 consecutive colors in a row. There was one time where I saw 16 consecutive colors, in all the times that I've been...
Seems extremely unlikely that's all...
Check out this link:
http://www.playroulette.co.uk/articles/odds-of-10reds-in-a-row-in-roulette.html
"Anyone knows that odds for the same event to occur several consecutive times in a series of independent plays of a game are very low. This applies for any game of chance, including roulette."
Hoping for your sake I am being trolled.
How often do you see something go black 7 times n a row, and then an 8th spin also coming up black? EXACTLY as many times as you see roulette going black 7 times in a row and then coming up red.
Let me rephrase your thought process so you can understand how stupid it is, lets say a roulette comes black black red black red red black red, now you could pick a color , lets say you wanted to bet on red, you could say "Well, the chances of it coming out black black red black red red black red and then black, are very small! That must mean I should bet on red!" even though the chances of it having that exact same sequence and then ending in red or black are exactly the same.
:uhoh2::uhoh2::uhoh2::uhoh2:
By employing Martingale, the only thing you acomplish is to minimize the amount of times (e.g visits to the casino/gambling sessions) you lose. What this is weighed up by though, is that the times you do lose, you lose a significant amount which makes up for all the times you went in and did not lose. Its the same as betting on like almost all of the numbers, most of the time you are going to win a small amount, but when you do lose, you lose a lot compared to what you normally win when you do win. The expected return of investment does not change no matter what betting strategy you employ.
I don't see much difference between the noted high stake (low risk) strategy and PPC advertising. Any such advertiser is "risking" a stake of cash in order to generate what would likely be small profit per lead/sale. The ballers risk high volume to generate large profits and reseach/testing and so on will help to raise conversions. Similar research/testing goes on with the punter who will know the game inside out. Their large stake risk for perhaps a Barca win has no guarantees, but would it be impossible for a large scale PPC campaign to go up the shitter?! I understand that bad results do happen, but with a big enough bankroll this can be over turned.
This thread is sad. There's such a lack of understanding of statistics, independent trials, maths, and probability. I think before posting everyone should google the betting strategy they are promoting - or whatever - and read the Wikipedia page for it.
Gambling is fun. Skill games are awesome. But wtf is all this logic about roulette; are you fucking kidding me?
Gambling is fun. Skill games are awesome. But wtf is all this logic about roulette; are you fucking kidding me?
What, do you really not understand the difference? The difference is that (assuming you know what you are doing with PPC) the expected value of spending money on PPC, is a positive one. The expected value of sports betting in the manner you propose (assuming they do not know more about the sport what the actuall odds of winning are than the people who set the lines) is negative. Yes they might have a decent chance of coming out ahead during 1 season by following a highly winning team and just betting on that every time. This is not about coming out ahead though, it is about being profitable.
Martingale works just as good (read: bad) for sports betting as it does for roulette. It reduces the chances of you not turning a profit on a specific visit to the casino\a specific season, but the times you do have losses, they are also substantially larger, making up for less amount of sessions/seasons where you lose money.
A sports bet is in many was just as isolated of an event as a roulette wheel is. Obviously the chances of a team winning (or the percieved changes of them winning) changes depending on their history\precious record, but this is what the Betting sites look at to create the correct odds. Odds which are made to have a Negative Expected return on both sides. Regardless of if you bet on a team the entire season or not.
The only way to make actually profitable sports bets is by spending a loooong time learning specific sports/teams/matches better than the people who set up the odds, and then strike when you see a potential soft spot. Which is easier said than done, as it is their job to find the correct odds, and they have some leeway as first they find what they reckon is the actual odds of a certain thing happening, then they spike it up slightly to make it profitable for them.
((I Am not saying Sports betting sites\bookies never make mistakes. Just that any person without a lot of experience/training is a lot more likely to make mistakes than people who's job is finding the correct lines/odds, so thinking you can beat sports betting without a lot of studying is foolish))
The 8 Rules of Match-Fixing:
1) The leagues don't fix matches.
2) The sports books don't fix matches.
3) Match-fixers fix matches.
4) Match-fixers employ runners to place brokered wagers with sports books.
5) Sports books offset these brokered wagers by placing their own bets with other sports books.
6) Match-fixers don't need to fix the end result to profit. Spot-fixing (the first half or total for example) can achieve the same results, without spoiling the competition.
7) Match-fixers don't need to be perfect, they just need to cover the juice (a winning ratio of 53%-60% is desired against the spread).
8) Sports books don't need to balance action on either side of the line. They just need to collect enough juice to cover expenses.
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1) The leagues don't fix matches.
2) The sports books don't fix matches.
3) Match-fixers fix matches.
4) Match-fixers employ runners to place brokered wagers with sports books.
5) Sports books offset these brokered wagers by placing their own bets with other sports books.
6) Match-fixers don't need to fix the end result to profit. Spot-fixing (the first half or total for example) can achieve the same results, without spoiling the competition.
7) Match-fixers don't need to be perfect, they just need to cover the juice (a winning ratio of 53%-60% is desired against the spread).
8) Sports books don't need to balance action on either side of the line. They just need to collect enough juice to cover expenses.
Im a trader, or rather a risk manager and I dont go to a casino unless I fancy losing money.
But on a sidenote im sure i heard something about a bloke who was well known for being a 'profesional gambler' down Vegas.
When they asked him what/how he did it he simply stated that he doenst actually gamble at the tables.
He simply 'bets' with the punters at the table, knowing the odds/probability that these punters where cannon fodder to casinos.
He bet with the punters.
The punters bet against the casino.
Lol. Fucking brilliant! Then again dunno if its true but hey if it is well done for him. Some out of box thinking there...
But on a sidenote im sure i heard something about a bloke who was well known for being a 'profesional gambler' down Vegas.
When they asked him what/how he did it he simply stated that he doenst actually gamble at the tables.
He simply 'bets' with the punters at the table, knowing the odds/probability that these punters where cannon fodder to casinos.
He bet with the punters.
The punters bet against the casino.
Lol. Fucking brilliant! Then again dunno if its true but hey if it is well done for him. Some out of box thinking there...
Came out with + $20 tonight...
(Bet $200 on red before I left. If I lost I would have been down $380 this evening).
Now of the $500 I lost a few weeks ago, I just have to make back $230.
(Bet $200 on red before I left. If I lost I would have been down $380 this evening).
Now of the $500 I lost a few weeks ago, I just have to make back $230.
Came out with + $20 tonight...
(Bet $200 on red before I left. If I lost I would have been down $380 this evening).
Now of the $500 I lost a few weeks ago, I just have to make back $230.
There are so many better ways to blow hundreds of dollars a second...
PPC
Leads
Escorts
Exotic Car Rentals
Seriously.
I play Texas Holdem online, more of a sure bet then alot of the other online stuff I do... Love the donks and there is plenty for the picking. 
Pays for the obsession to make big err bucks in this thing we do.
Pays for the obsession to make big err bucks in this thing we do.
Black jack is legit, especially if you have BS downpat and know how to count.
Besides that craps has the best odds i hear, and albert einstien once said that the only way to win in roulette was to steal money from the table .. LOL what a baller
either way, if you have money to blow, go gamble. If your like my one buddy, who goes there thinking you are going to make money, and end up spending a weeks pay .. you really need some help brah
Besides that craps has the best odds i hear, and albert einstien once said that the only way to win in roulette was to steal money from the table .. LOL what a baller
either way, if you have money to blow, go gamble. If your like my one buddy, who goes there thinking you are going to make money, and end up spending a weeks pay .. you really need some help brah
Why? In the time it takes to learn to count cards, you could become a good poker player, and make more. Even if you can count cards, you still need extreme discipline to win in blackjack.