Amazon, Facebook, Ebay or Google?

[Midas Touch]

Hmm.....let's think back and then hypothosize the future here...

From what I have been seeing, BTW I first started making money online with eBay back in 2004, eBay is going to get pushed aside and PayPal is going to be their only real saving grace.

Google is just too damn big to go anywhere, just like Amazon.

Facebook is making some moves, but I really don't know that they are going to be able to hold their positon over the long haul.

As most anyone in this business knows, 1 month online equates to about 3 to 6 months in the real world for how fast things move and change.

So, there is about to be a a pretty big Paradigm Shift in the next 2 years "I" think. (Watch what happens when Synthetic Crystals get perfected and Neural Network circuit boards come into the consumer market.)

eBay and Facebook will the be the ones in the above list struggling to stay on the crest of the wave as it comes through.

Excerpt from above link:


"In conclusion, for millions of years we have been evolving and will continue to do so. Change is difficult. Human Beings resist change; however, the process has been set in motion long ago and we will continue to co-create our own experience. Kuhn states that "awareness is prerequisite to all acceptable changes of theory" (p. 67). It all begins in the mind of the person. What we perceive, whether normal or metanormal, conscious or unconscious, are subject to the limitations and distortions produced by our inherited and socially conditional nature. However, we are not restricted by this for we can change. We are moving at an accelerated rate of speed and our state of consciousness is transforming and transcending. Many are awakening as our conscious awareness expands."

 

[jenzkc]

So, there is about to be a a pretty big Paradigm Shift in the next 2 years "I" think. (Watch what happens when Synthetic Crystals get perfected and Neural Network circuit boards come into the consumer market.)

I think we're going to see a shift from monolithic entities like these to more distributed, smaller, specialized entities. There may be a service of some sort to integrate them, but facebook isn't it, and neither is one company. The service will be open, not commercial.

 

[Midas Touch]

That's where I'd disagree with you, how did PayPal get so popular? It gained it's cred from a huge user base that was eBay. Amazon is the only one out there that has a large enough customer base to pull this off properly. Much like eBay it's a market place to buy products and there is Amazons strategy.

Google Checkout isn't popular because WTF do you buy directly from Google besides advertising? It's like fighting up hill because you have to do that much more advertising, and pushing to get it adopted.

I remember PayPal struggling pretty hard when it first came out. eBay "was" it's only real market.

Then when the ecconomy started to tank, it found a foothold out in the online retail world to displace the Merchant Account providers who had much strickter requirements to setup online payments.

This is when it broke out of it's niche' and gained popularity. Then eBay grabbed it to hedge it's position in the online payment market and cut it's expenses for online payments of their auctions. Not only cutting out the expense of paying for payment processing to a thrid party, but to actually PROFIT from the payments. A 200% return turn around in my book.

"I" think eBay was very wise to aquire PayPal.

Talking about Google Checkout, I kinda think that we might just see a play by Google to either aquire or partner with PayPal/eBay in the pretty near future as things start to get shaken up and everyone starts jockeying for a stable position for when the dust settles.

There is much more going on in the online under-current that is going to pop up and really change what & how we are doing things now.

Even if there weren't signs of the coming change, just by the very nature of change we are quickly approaching a significant change online in how people use the internet and how we will provide goods and services to them.

I for one am watching with both amusement and anticipation as to see what is to come. (I kinda feel like a Rodeo Rider just waiting for the gate to open!! Lulz)

Peace Out!!

 

[kingofsp]

That's where I'd disagree with you, how did PayPal get so popular? It gained it's cred from a huge user base that was eBay. Amazon is the only one out there that has a large enough customer base to pull this off properly. Much like eBay it's a market place to buy products and there is Amazons strategy.

True, eBay did wonders for PayPal, but I think the branding of PayPal vs "Amazon Pay" as a separate entity exclusively for sending and receiving money is much better. How far away are we from friends settling group buys with each other via Amazon Pay? I would venture to guess that the general public still has no idea that eBay and PayPal are even related.

But yeah, you have to give credit to eBay for PayPal's monopoly. BidPay sure as hell didn't stand a chance without their support.

 

[Sir Charles]

Facebook, as they currently stand, will never have things like deep contextual knowledge of most empirical data

Yup, they sure as hell don't know the users age, location, interests or anything else that might be useful.

Facebook can earn more money then Google, trust me. But they're too lazy/stupid to even ponder into that world so they won't.

 

[Midas Touch]

I think we're going to see a shift from monolithic entities like these to more distributed, smaller, specialized entities...

"I" believe you are VERY correct on that assement.

But don't count the Big Boys out. They too see what is happening and will find a way to be a part of it.

As I mentioned above, not only the behavior of the people online is changing but the NEW technology that has been kinda put on the back burner so to speak has finally started to mature and this "IS" going to change the game in a big way.

I'm not sure how well or fast "I" will be able to adapt to it, but I am actually looking forward to the challenge.

 

[Midas Touch]

Yup, they sure as hell don't know the users age, location, interests or anything else that might be useful.

Facebook can earn more money then Google, trust me. But they're too lazy/stupid to even ponder into that world so they won't.

Not so much that "they" don't know the possibilities, but more so that "Big Brother" has jumped on them several times. It would seem that our boy Billy Gates stuck a pretty BIG stick in their Craw.

So, they are just pretty much biding their time until they can see their way clear to move without getting slapped.

But this will be one of the things that causes them to lose market share.

Smaller companies with LESS to lose will move forward with this info and not really worry too much about Big Brother.

 

[-Matt-]

Amazon, for staying on top of the digital media game.

 

[casinobonus24]

My vote goes for facebook as we must not forget that at some point they might launch their own search engine which will have a potential userbase of about half a billion registered users. If they manage to include a search engine into their network this will create serious trouble to Google in my opinion.

 

[Icecube]

I think facebook is the most volatile among the 4. It became popular being one of the gazillion social networks around, and the same way could be surpassed by another social something with a different approach....it doesn't necessarily need to be something new, it just have to look so, or look smarter/easier/more customizable/whatever and people will leave facebook in no time.

I think ebay has way more potential in PayPal than ebay itself, it's the quickest and easiest way to setup ecommerce, if you think that millions of new businesses are getting online in developing countries you get a picture of its potential, or at least this is what I think.

Amazon is a giant, and has a giant approach to everything and they're launching in new countries: moreover I think they made one of the smartest choices they had to diversify their strategy getting into computing/content delivery/cloud or how you want to call it.

Google is simply adding loads of useless new features to their systems ( maybe to keep users/investors happy and pump up their shares value ). Who knows what's going to happen on mobiles in 5 years?

15 years ago these companies didn't exist ( maybe Amazon was just born, I can't remember )...it's really hard to make a reasoned 10 years forecast.

If I had to pick one I'd go for Amazon

 

[BlokBlok]

Facebook will be a bubble, toss up between goog and amazon

 

[GreeLee]

I think part of the reason eBay stopped growth for a while is because of paypal. Their decline happened around the same time they stopped taking other forms of payment. The partnership was great for paypal, but shit for eBay.

 

[cardine]

Facebook, as they currently stand, will never have things like deep contextual knowledge of most empirical data, which is currently Google's game. Going back to how to poach eggs, Facebook won't be answering that question unless I just pester my friends for how to do it, in which case I am not even searching anymore. Now if I want to know where to get the best poached eggs, sure Facebook could be all up in that business in a big way. But Google doesn't necessarily lose out (at least not to the extent in which we would say they were "crushed") for Facebook to make gains, not everybody finds all of their discoverable needs are met online yet. I agree, search won't look the same but that's just because it will grow and encompass more, Google may end up with a smaller percentage of the market than they currently own, but I think that will be because the size of the overall market has grown at a higher rate than the rate at which Facebook would take share from their shared discoverable data.

It is less difficult for Facebook to acquire the knowledge that Google has than it would be for Google to require what Facebook has.

You can put a huge chunk of cash into search and create a search engine that rivals Google. You can't put a huge chunk of cash into social and create a social network that rivals Facebook.

Also when Google has tried to mimic any sort of social site/idea they've flopped.

Google will still be a cash cow, but in terms of growth, Facebook and Amazon will blow Google away.

 

[FTC-Hater]

Amazon for biggest gains. Google for biggest asset base.

 

[DKPMO]

Search will never go away, it will always be huge and part of it has no intersection with social. I'm not going hit up my social graph if I'm trying to self diagnose anal warts or need to learn how to poach an egg. Google is just going to have accept that they won't be the only big swinging dick of the internet anymore.

But, but, but Facebook wants you to tell all your friends about your anal warts!

My vote goes for facebook as we must not forget that at some point they might launch their own search engine which will have a potential userbase of about half a billion registered users. If they manage to include a search engine into their network this will create serious trouble to Google in my opinion.

They already have a search engine in Facebook. It is called Bing. Have you heard of anyone using it?

 

[Unarmed Gunman]

Everybody seems to be forgetting that users also have a personal investment in their Facebook account. The same can not be said for the others.

 

[lukep]

1. Google; because their biz model is shifting towards ISP AND Power Co. Two very profitable industries, those. -Unless of course the Fed breaks them up for being "Monopolistic."

2. Amazon; because their cloud is finding itself EVERYWHERE. -I could see all desktop & Laptop OSs being run in their cloud one day! (Biggest loser will be Microsoft...)

3. Facebook; because the Open Graph will soon be what Adsense/AdWords is to us today.

4. eBay; although it's close... Paypal is very valuable like others here have said, but it's really a 1-trick pony and doesn't engage every last user of the web... All three above do.

Anyone who doesn't agree with this order just hasn't been keeping up.

-Luke

 

[jenzkc]

Everybody seems to be forgetting that users also have a personal investment in their Facebook account. The same can not be said for the others.

that doesn't matter... i don't have any other way of contacting a lot of my friends on there, but still permanently deleted my account. deleted a few apps i developed with hundreds of daily users at the same time. fuck facebook.

 

[eliquid]

People will always want to do buy/sell/trade online, the winner I think will come ahead in that space might actually be eBay.

They have distributed income from not only eBay fees, but from Paypal fees and the other sites they are invested in, such as kijji, gumtree, stubhub, shopping.com, half.com, rent.com and Craigslist.

Amazon is doing some awesome things, but their income is mainly from Amazon.com itself, zappos, audible, and endless. I know they do some hosting and moving into new spaces, but I feel that eBay is in a better position if they would just get their ass in gear.

As far as Google and Facebook, I think Google could easily be replaced by BING/Yahoo or even FB if FB focused on some search shit more.. I dont see Facebook being replaced anytime soon by Goog/Yahoo/Bing/Myspace/Bebo/etc... so I think FB is the clear winner.

I do feel that if FB steps their shopping game up, you could see a large cut removed from Amazon and eBay though. Facebook is one to watch for sure.

 

[DKPMO]

Everybody seems to be forgetting that users also have a personal investment in their Facebook account. The same can not be said for the others.

And what do they use it for?

Sharing drunken pictures, messaging and playing games. People just see Facebook as a place for goofing off, not for commerce or productivity.

fuck facebook.

My thoughts exactly.