Zuckerberg Fortune Drops $600 Million as Facebook Flops



Unarmed Gunman said:
Google needs to worry a lot more about Amazon then Facebook. Talk about commercial intent, Amazon is a monster and they actually sell shit unlike Google.
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Now this is someone I'd trust with my money.

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Better industry philosopher than Steve Jobstopper IMO.

Edit: someone posted last month about the possibility of Amazon offering same-day delivery on a widespread scale. Another article goes into more detail.

Love revolutionary ideas in application!
 
ly2 from WF said:
Dude, just because they know what people like doesn't equal a sale. Yes, it's sick as fuck that they know what everyone likes and that data is super valuable, nobody is debating that I don't think unless they're retarded.

However, like Guerilla said, Facebook doesn't have intent. If Facebook knows I like fishing boats, they can throw fishing boat ads at me on the sidebar and I may or may not click out of curiosity.

BUT, if I actually want to BUY a new fishing boat, guess where I'm going to look for one? Google(or some other SE), not Facebook. If Google could get their hands on FB's data about people, it would be pretty sick. But FB doesn't have the means to really exploit that data because they have no intent based service.

At the very least I feel like FB should implement some type of FB homepage that shows a simple search box, and the users email. Then encourage users to set it as their homepage. I mean, Bing sucks shit, but half the people on FB probably can't tell the difference between Bing and Google anyway.

If FB wants to ever think about competing on the level of Google, they better get their fucking search game in order. And I don't mean competing on the level of Google in terms of our parents saying "Oh this FB thing is great, it's the next Google! Let's buy some stock!". I mean REALLY competing on the level of Google in terms of value, revenue, and need. I don't "need" facebook, if facebook died tomorrow my life would go on as normal. If Google died tomorrow I would lose my YouTube account, my email which the the soul of my online life, and I would have to find and use a different and shittier search engine.
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If your argument held up there would be no banner networks. Facebook ads on Facebook.com would not exist. Why is Facebook one of the hottest advertising mediums if it is so unsuccessful to the advertiser according to you?

I am talking about Facebook taking their already successful business model of "Facebook Ads" and opening it up to publishers. This would allow Facebook to sell more impressions. Would they also introduce a contextual component? Maybe! Who knows.

This would raise their stock price. I don't know why you are throwing all this other stuff about Google Search at me. It's not really relevant.

Facebook is already testing/demoing their ads on Zynga.com - it is in the works and very real.

Another thing that may happen is they may open up credits to the public, allowing sites to accept Facebook credits - meaning Facebook would be taking a cut of sales made through credits around the web. This would incredibly boost their revenue and allow their stock price to turn around. Stock holders want to see growth. Facebook does not need to enter the Search business to show growth.
 
DrewEnds said:
El,

Did you purchase any Zynga stock?
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Yeah I did.. bought it at like $3.11... it then dipped down to $2.70 I think? now it's back up around ~$3.00.

I think it will go back up. Will be interesting to see what happens during the next earnings call. I think if they launch some international gambling products it might go up a bit.
 
el toddler said:
If your argument held up there would be no banner networks. Facebook ads on Facebook.com would not exist. Why is Facebook one of the hottest advertising mediums if it is so unsuccessful to the advertiser according to you?

I am talking about Facebook taking their already successful business model of "Facebook Ads" and opening it up to publishers. This would allow Facebook to sell more impressions. Would they also introduce a contextual component? Maybe! Who knows.

This would raise their stock price. I don't know why you are throwing all this other stuff about Google Search at me. It's not really relevant.

Facebook is already testing/demoing their ads on Zynga.com - it is in the works and very real.

Another thing that may happen is they may open up credits to the public, allowing sites to accept Facebook credits - meaning Facebook would be taking a cut of sales made through credits around the web. This would incredibly boost their revenue and allow their stock price to turn around. Stock holders want to see growth. Facebook does not need to enter the Search business to show growth.
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Even if Facebook manages to build out their display network onto other websites, I don't see how that will make them worth more than 100 billion. Let's say they manage to completely dominate Google's display network and grab 2.9 billion in quarterly revenues (which is what Google's revenue is for their display network). Google does something like 35+ billion in revenue per year and display only makes up 20% of that. Even if Facebook completely dominates display they'll only do 11+ billion a year in revenue. Seeing as how the valuation is already at 40 billion, how far up do you think their stock will go?

Also the fact that Mark Zuckerberg doesn't seem to care much about advertisers given his previous statements, I'm not sure he can pull it off.
 
el toddler said:
If your argument held up there would be no banner networks. Facebook ads on Facebook.com would not exist. Why is Facebook one of the hottest advertising mediums if it is so unsuccessful to the advertiser according to you?

I am talking about Facebook taking their already successful business model of "Facebook Ads" and opening it up to publishers. This would allow Facebook to sell more impressions. Would they also introduce a contextual component? Maybe! Who knows.

This would raise their stock price. I don't know why you are throwing all this other stuff about Google Search at me. It's not really relevant.

Facebook is already testing/demoing their ads on Zynga.com - it is in the works and very real.

Another thing that may happen is they may open up credits to the public, allowing sites to accept Facebook credits - meaning Facebook would be taking a cut of sales made through credits around the web. This would incredibly boost their revenue and allow their stock price to turn around. Stock holders want to see growth. Facebook does not need to enter the Search business to show growth.
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Maybe, but they still don't have search. And them opening up to work like adsense, you still have the intent issue. Yes, they will be able to put ads in front of people whom the ads are relevant, but they still have no search. Sure, they can make deals with small search engines, but they will never have the volume Google does unless they create one themselves and it works, or by the grace of God Bing gets their shit together.

Not saying they can't, won't, and aren't making lots of money, they are. But not Google money.
 
I have no intention of buying a bmw.

bmw purchases ads on teh TV.

I see bmw's ads.

bmw are complete retards. How dare they advertise to someone that doesnt have intent. In fact they advertise to the general public, without any data. Complete idiots. In fact all the TV networks, making $300B a year by this stupid advertising model that has no intent in it are complete idiots.

Search is everything!!! Data on what everybody likes means nothing. Come on... you don't have intent.

Video ads on the 3rd biggest video player in the world? BULLSHIT. That makes no sense. There's no intent?

Display network... hahaha, that's complete crap.

Mobile yet not monetized at 20%? Doesn't mean anything.

Native advertising? pft. get real!

paid subscriptions on apps? ha-ha. Nobody is paying for anything on the internet...

come on.. they don't have a search engine with ads... oh.. wait, don't they?
 
First, i think Mark Z. needs to step aside and bring an effective revenue generating type CEO in. MZ/Sandberg is great in product, i'll accept that, but product without marketing is Shit.!!

Google achieved its current status today, by bringing in Eric Schmidt. They kept users happy with subtle, YET EFFECTIVE ADS! Am I wrong? I can't even see FB ads..they're so small and subtle..my focus is in the middle of the screen on my feed. I can't even see the ads.

Think Display advertising and you guys have some good ideas for search, but overall, the solution is right in front of their noses..MZ just needs to basically loosen his noose, yet keep user quality as FB's top priority.

Honestly, I have several solutions, but don't want to share, since i would not receive any royalties for my ideas and neither should you! Let them figure it out!! FUCK THAT! we work tooooo damn hard for our intelligence and here we are providing them with our best for FREE, while they get paid..FUCK THAT!

They want ideas, let them hire me (with $0 price strike options) and I promise 20-35% YOY growth from where they are today..including a 75-300% immediate impact to 2013 revenues. I will even guarantee my performance.
 
^ so that was my first draft that i couldnt edit.

Written a bit poorly, but i think my point was made. I'm not willing to share what I know to improve FB revenues, without mutual profit in return :)
 
guess what would be cool. If you could retarget visitors on facebook. That would be awesome!! People that showed intent and you show ads to them. How awesome is that!
 
Facebook ads isn't a serious threat to Google. They're different monsters all together ad cater to different advertising needs and audiences.

Facebook contextual ads on third party sites is what Google should be worried about. There is a lot of promise and potential of Facebooks demographic application in that space that directly overlaps with Googles business.
 
"But here's the thing: our mission isn't to be a public company. Our mission is to make the world more open and connected."

I think that quote says a lot about what Zuckerberg initially had in mind and it seems like bringing up profits and advertising revenues has always been secondary to him. Anyway what do I know, the guy is a lot smarter than me as he's managed to build and run a now 40 billion dollar company (and not sell out early). So who knows.

I don't think anyone is saying display advertising is worthless. I do a lot of advertising with Facebook and the idea that you can't sell things on it simply isn't true. With that said, I expect search converts a lot higher for certain niches, and it seems to bring in a lot more money and profit for Google.

The internet changes so fast that we really have no idea where FB will be in the next five years.
 
Thousands of companies are using FB as a free advertising portal via the fan pages. Charging for fan pages would be an easy way to generate income. If they want to keep it free for most, they could charge large companies with a lot of fans for "premium" fan pages that are featured to users.
 
Djshorty89 said:
Even if Facebook manages to build out their display network onto other websites, I don't see how that will make them worth more than 100 billion. Let's say they manage to completely dominate Google's display network and grab 2.9 billion in quarterly revenues (which is what Google's revenue is for their display network). Google does something like 35+ billion in revenue per year and display only makes up 20% of that. Even if Facebook completely dominates display they'll only do 11+ billion a year in revenue. Seeing as how the valuation is already at 40 billion, how far up do you think their stock will go?

Also the fact that Mark Zuckerberg doesn't seem to care much about advertisers given his previous statements, I'm not sure he can pull it off.
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I am just saying I think the stock will turn around if they make a big move that generates more cash for the company like opening Facebook Ads to publishers.

I think the price of the stock was obviously over valued in the beginning.

Open up the use of credits outside of Facebook, more ways to advertise on Facebook, offering subscription payment services which they have started and if the big guys like Netflix jump on it could be huge, figure out how to better monetize mobile... all of these will help.


Here is one new product they are launching soon:
Facebook Exchange: A New Way For Advertisers To Target Specific Users With Real-Time Bid Ads | TechCrunch

I think with a few good earnings calls the stock will turn around. They beat the naysayers in the beginning when they weren't profitable. I think they can beat this. Groupon, however, I don't know. Lol
 
I wouldn't even think of having a serious long position with Facebook until after the November lock out period. That is when they will be converting restricted shares, so expect a big dump again.

Having said that, I did open a small FB option call position on Friday. It's likely that we will see some buyers coming in now that we are done with that first lockout. Either way, I'm not holding the position for more than 2-3 days.
 
mGrunin said:
I wouldn't even think of having a serious long position with Facebook until after the November lock out period. That is when they will be converting restricted shares, so expect a big dump again.

Having said that, I did open a small FB option call position on Friday. It's likely that we will see some buyers coming in now that we are done with that first lockout. Either way, I'm not holding the position for more than 2-3 days.
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Looks like I was right. Facebook is up 4.5% on a day when the markets are down. My position is up 20%. Easy money.
 
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