Time to make money with PBR: OIL BITCHES
- Thread starter mGrunin
- Start date
2nd edit: this is mostly directed toward the guys taking long equity positions in this thread. I'm not critiquing OP's trade. I don't do options and I don't know shit so I won't claim to.
A company can look great on paper but if the chart shows a 2-3 year downward trend and it's continuing to make new lows, I don't want any part of it.
Don't catch falling knives.
I could be wrong but i think PBR specializes in very advanced underwater drilling technology. The price of oil isn't high enough to warrant that type of operation yet in my opinion.
PBR is one of the largest companies in a huge, natural resource-rich country that'll be a big powerhouse in the coming decades (Brazil). But PBR's time isn't here yet.
It also only payed 1 dividend in the last few years? Unless Fidelity is lying to me. They severely underpay either way. They're not a good dividend play, especially for the oil sector. Most of the big boys in this sector pay 2-3% or more. (XOM, CVX, etc)
Why not buy shit that's going up? Trends are pretty fucking important in equities. I know it's different in FOREX and maybe even options but ignoring the stuff that's going up and buying shares of stocks that are falling and under-performing is just about the worst thing you can do.
The whole damn market is going up so it boggles my mind that people would want to buy this under-performing stock right now. I could throw fucking darts at the finance section of the NY Times and find good stock picks in this market, and you guys want PBR?
that's my 2 cents.
edit: to make this post somewhat constructive, here's what I'd look for before entering a long PBR position:
I'd like to see its relative strength greatly improve and start atleast performing at the level of the S&P, if not better in a 1-2 month period. There's a multi-year trend line that it keeps hitting and retreating from, unable to break through. I'd look for that trend line to be violated, preferrably on a high volume move, before I got in. Right now, that trend line extends to around $17, so I want nothing to do with PBR til it's at the $17 level.
Yes, I'd rather buy it at $17 than $12. Cause if it gets up above $17 on good volume it means it's actually going somewhere, rather than just falling further into the basement.
Disclaimer: I wrote this post and these are my own opinions. I'm not offering investment advice and I'm not an investment advisor.
A company can look great on paper but if the chart shows a 2-3 year downward trend and it's continuing to make new lows, I don't want any part of it.
Don't catch falling knives.
I could be wrong but i think PBR specializes in very advanced underwater drilling technology. The price of oil isn't high enough to warrant that type of operation yet in my opinion.
PBR is one of the largest companies in a huge, natural resource-rich country that'll be a big powerhouse in the coming decades (Brazil). But PBR's time isn't here yet.
It also only payed 1 dividend in the last few years? Unless Fidelity is lying to me. They severely underpay either way. They're not a good dividend play, especially for the oil sector. Most of the big boys in this sector pay 2-3% or more. (XOM, CVX, etc)
Why not buy shit that's going up? Trends are pretty fucking important in equities. I know it's different in FOREX and maybe even options but ignoring the stuff that's going up and buying shares of stocks that are falling and under-performing is just about the worst thing you can do.
The whole damn market is going up so it boggles my mind that people would want to buy this under-performing stock right now. I could throw fucking darts at the finance section of the NY Times and find good stock picks in this market, and you guys want PBR?
that's my 2 cents.
edit: to make this post somewhat constructive, here's what I'd look for before entering a long PBR position:
I'd like to see its relative strength greatly improve and start atleast performing at the level of the S&P, if not better in a 1-2 month period. There's a multi-year trend line that it keeps hitting and retreating from, unable to break through. I'd look for that trend line to be violated, preferrably on a high volume move, before I got in. Right now, that trend line extends to around $17, so I want nothing to do with PBR til it's at the $17 level.
Yes, I'd rather buy it at $17 than $12. Cause if it gets up above $17 on good volume it means it's actually going somewhere, rather than just falling further into the basement.
Disclaimer: I wrote this post and these are my own opinions. I'm not offering investment advice and I'm not an investment advisor.
"Why not buy shit that's going up? "
Because shit that goes up can come down for reasons that are not obvious until it's too late (Enron for example)
Stuff that is going down can also reverse for reasons not obvious. (Best Buy stock for example)
Picking individual stocks is luck..that's all it is.
Because shit that goes up can come down for reasons that are not obvious until it's too late (Enron for example)
Stuff that is going down can also reverse for reasons not obvious. (Best Buy stock for example)
Picking individual stocks is luck..that's all it is.
Good post
My only reason is based on this quote
I try to do the opposite of what the market analyst tell me to do.
Enron is 1 stock. out of thousands. Most stocks that are outperforming the S&P and trending upward will continue to do so in the near future.
Stocks can obviously turn around but the people who try to guess when this will happen and time it perfectly will lose money. period.
My stocks that are going up could turn down? great, that's why I use stop loss orders like every other legitimate equity trader.
Picking stocks is not luck. That's the kind of shit that gets passed along by people that cannot make money in the stock market (probably because you're catching falling knives like PBR and guessing the bottom of underperforming stocks with horrible relative strength.
I'm not trying to be a dick and I hope this post doesn't come across like that.. but I think the thought process you described is directly what leads to your final statement- the belief that people cannot successfully identify stocks that will outperform the market on a consistent basis.
And that's just absurd because myself and many others are doing it year in and year out.
Everyone tries to be smart and guess the end of a trend. i know plenty of people that can't make shit in the stock market and every 2 months they're guessing the top of the S&P. I'd rather go with the trend and let it SHOW me when it's over. Not guess. You gotta decide whether you'd rather look smart or make money.
edit:
here are 3 stocks I own right now. Look at the charts. They're the exact opposite of PBR. And they're making me money.
I didn't hand-pick these 3 examples because they're the best. I just chose the first 3 stocks on my account screen. I bought them specifically BECAUSE they were going up. It's not a coincidence. I'm not showing you stocks that happened to go up when I bought them. These are part of my trading system and I buy them when they're most likely to rise.
BAC
KND
MSCI
^ these are way above the breakout though. I'm not suggesting anyone buy em
as usual here's my disclaimer: i wrote this post and it is my opinion. I'm not a financial advisor and I'm not recommending any action be taken.
I'm bullish on the S&P 500 as well, but the issue is that individual stocks carry something called Idiosyncratic Risk, or firm-specific risk, which is uncorrelated to the overall market. There are plenty of ETFs that have outperformed the market and buying them eliminates this risk. A stock technically has more upside potential than a fund but 25-40%+ YOY returns and diversification isn't something to scoff at.
I'm with you there. I quit gambling many years ago because I sucked at it.
How are you guys making money consistently trading options day in and day out? What is it like 80% of all options traders lose? Sure, you can kill it if you you make the right trade but with so many things going against you, wouldn't you have better odd playing roulette (for real?)
Over the last 6 years I have made a killing just buying good companies and holding them.
AAPL, V, DNKN , COH, UA, SBUX
I want firm-specific risk. The stocks I pick outperform the market.
Risk = variability of returns. This is what I want. If I didn't want risk, I'd just buy the S&P like you said. But I can do better than that. Risk is what allows me to make a great profit. Risk is what allows certain stocks I pick to go up 50-100% when the overall market only gains 10% in the same time period. And stop loss orders get me out of the bad trades rather quickly.
I don't want diversification (beyond a certain point).
Why would I want 30 stocks or a whole index of stocks when the first 5-10 I pick will be the best? (it's hard to pick 30 winners than 10 winners)
Too much diversification is bad. It's entirely possible to diversify your gains away. Ie- pick 30 stocks and picks #20-30 are nowhere near as good as the first 1-10, and it drags your average returns way down.
I agree. Unless you're a full time trader, watching / analyzing 30 different companies sounds like a lot of work.
This thread reeks of people bsing about stuff they don't know anything about in a failed attempt to look like somebody they arnt.