Tesla crushed earnings // +$38k payday for me?

mGrunin

mGrunin

New member
Jul 18, 2009
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Tesla reported earnings today and had fantastic figures. They posted a 33c EPS versus a consensus of 21c EPS. Tesla expects to deliver 35k models of their Model S car versus 20k deliveries for 2013. The gross margin at the moment is at 25%, but expects 28% for the future quarters.

All in all, strong quarter by Tesla and I was able to take advantage of it.

Considering that for the past eight quarters Tesla always had a good bit of volatility coming out of the earnings call, I decided to take a play.

This was the position that I posted on StockTwits & my forum before the market close today:

original_20179265.png


This play is focused on a bias towards the upside obviously. Based on the risk profile, you can see that my breakeven on the upside is around $212 while my maximum gain territory is at >$215. Now if the stock missed earnings and sold off, as long as it sold under $177.50 - I could come out completely flat on this play overall.

The only way for me to take a loss on this play is if it moves much less than expected.

Well with this beat today, the stock is currently trading at $217. If the stock would finish trading anywhere above $215 by Friday, my gain would be ~ $38,000. My risk on this trade keep in mind is about $27,000.

I rarely ever play earnings simply because most of the time it is a losing proposition as an option buyer, but if I feel there is a great likelihood of a 8%+ move, then I will take a stab at it. I also played earnings for Tesla last August and came out successful.

I'll update this thread as to what happens with the positions and any action I have taken.

By the way, have you guys seen the market reversal today? Ouch. We have so many multiple tops at this current level that I have warned about over the weekend, the chart I posted then:

sla2GzO.png


Wondering where the high was before reversing today? It was at 1844.50 - from there it came all the way down to 1823.25. Anyhow, I took advantage of the sell off midway:

original_20181966.png


Profits were realized.
 
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I was bullish on the new report but the actual results were phenominal.

28% Margins for a car company are INSANE.

I dumped all my mREITs about a year ago and put them into TSLA at $127/share. I'm quite happy :)
 
Tesla finished trading in the aftermarkets at $218 - not a bad close by any means. If it opens in the high teens similar to the close, I will have to be very proactive when it comes to managing my position. Even though the stock might be opening in maximum gain territory, since it is two days too early, the full gain for me will not be there just yet. Instead of a $38k sitting gain, it might only be something along the lines of $25k-$30k. I would then need to wait for theta to erode from the short option to rack in the remaining gain. That will be quite a dilemma since while I would love to take a full gain, I put all my gains at risk at holding throughout the period.

The difference between either taking a full gain on this position or coming out breakeven is less than a $4 spread. From the AH closing price, it is only $6 away from wiping out any profits and just finishing at breakeven. So it is important for me to manage the trade and possibly realize gains early on tomorrow just incase there is any downside.
 
mpbiz said:
Why are there WordPress logos all over your pics?
Click to expand...

It isn't WordPress logos.

I do that so other people do not utilize the images for their own websites. I post my stock pics and P/L on a pretty popular networking site revolving the stock market (stocktwits). Many people see it, and I simply don't want my images to be ripped off. I know that they can easily just crop out the bottom part, but at least it takes them a bit more effort. Not to mention that if any of the images are passed privately between traders - it gets me the publicity.
 
Quite the day today! So on Tesla we opened at $515 and began to sell off. We literally had all red 15 minute candles all the way to 11 AM. At that point we went into the low $206 region and confirmed that as a support. Keep in mind that two days ago $206 was the all time high. So what we have here is resistance turning into a support! From that point on we rebounded into the $513 region before settling down at exactly $510. Could the close have been better? Definitely, I could sleep easier at night if we closed at $513 as opposed to $510.

Here is the current chart:

original_20235982.png


Keep in mind that every little dollar movement from here matters a lot for my position. Anything below $210 and my position expires completely worthless. Expiration date is also tomorrow.
My breakeven level on the position is right at about $212, and we closed below that. My maximum gain on the position will only occur if we get a close above $215. Which means I need a 2.3% pop.

At this moment I am down $5,400 on the position. As of 4:59 AM, the indice futures are currently in the green by 0.20-0.26%. Definitely not a big pop by any means, but if we have plans to see Tesla proceeding higher tomorrow, we will need support of the broaden markets. In Germany, Tesla is currently trading at $211.50 in the premarket.
 
mGrunin said:
It isn't WordPress logos.

I do that so other people do not utilize the images for their own websites. I post my stock pics and P/L on a pretty popular networking site revolving the stock market (stocktwits). Many people see it, and I simply don't want my images to be ripped off. I know that they can easily just crop out the bottom part, but at least it takes them a bit more effort. Not to mention that if any of the images are passed privately between traders - it gets me the publicity.
Click to expand...

I was kidding brah :food-smiley-010:
 
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