Ppc doubts

Joozed

Joozed

Member
May 27, 2009
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The Netherlands
After 50-100 clicks or so to a particular offer, I sometimes get the feeling that a certain adgroup/keyword won't give me a positive ROI. Maybe because the lp is not relevant enough for my audience or the keyword I am targeting is too general etc...

Then there's the dilemma: Am I gonna spend a shitload of more money on this keyword to see if/how it converts... Or just cancel the keyword/adgroup and focus on the other ones.

So when there is no statistical significance but your gut feeling tells: I am probably throwing away lots of dollars...

What do you do? How are the ppc ballers here on WF dealing with doubt when running ppc campaigns?

P.s I know I'll probably get flamed for asking because I have <20 posts, so here you go:

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Although I personally like the tittays posted above, some people read WF at work hence please use the boobs or NSFW icon next time.
 
Each affiliate has his/her own tolerance for losses on a particular campaign/ad group/creative/etc.

If the ad group has spent multiple times your target acquisition CPA, then I'd say pause it. Look inside the ad group first, as there may be one or two bad keywords that have racked up spend without conversions.

On that note, I usually follow my gut when it comes to these decisions. But remember... a successful campaign requires money and testing, so don't pause things too early!
 
You can start out smaller, but you need to take risks in this industry to make money. I usually spend 500$/test nowadays. When I started - barely $50. I was touchy with money at first. When I stopped giving a fuck about it, I blew up.
 
some people say 80 clicks is not hardly enough info for a keyword. I say get the fuck out, 80 clicks is plenty, what you think on the 100th click some magical fairy is gonna come and convert the bitch at 6%. No unless you make some bomb ass changes to your lp. 20-30 clicks is plenty. Find which keywords work, optimize that bitch, scale that damn campaign and just rollllll yourself a blunt.
 
Making Money said:
some people say 80 clicks is not hardly enough info for a keyword. I say get the fuck out, 80 clicks is plenty, what you think on the 100th click some magical fairy is gonna come and convert the bitch at 6%. No unless you make some bomb ass changes to your lp. 20-30 clicks is plenty. Find which keywords work, optimize that bitch, scale that damn campaign and just rollllll yourself a blunt.
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Dude, seriously.

I know that you get like a 25% Conversion rate on your pimping your mom out campaign. But not everything in the world is the same as selling $3 blow jobs.
 
I don't go with my gut, I learned in split testing long ago my gut can't replace time/money spent to generate real data. Going with my gut will cost me more in the long run so I avoid it. If you took the time to set up the keywords/adgroup you thought at some point it might work. The time to scratch it with limited data was before you ever made it.

Here's the helpful hint for the newbies - you can't be to eager to figure out what works and what doesn't in 1 day no matter the clicks. A steady budget and sometime is the only thing that will do it. You can have all the money in the world but you spend $300 in an hour and get no conversions but that doesn't mean anything because it was just a hour.

Some offers are VERY time of day/week dependent and almost every offer I've come across this is some what of a factor. Time of day is harder to track so almost all noobs skip it..... don't.
 
Stop being such a stingy bastard and give it a chance to run. If money is that important to you than quit while you can because losing money is just a part of business. I know it sounds weird, but the moment I stopped giving a fuck about money is when my business really took off.

Don't look at an amount of money and think of what it can buy you in your personal life. The only difference between 10k and 100k is another zero. It's a number that's all. The moment you think of what you could buy with it is you start over thinking it and second guessing yourself.
 
greenleaves said:
Dude, seriously.

I know that you get like a 25% Conversion rate on your pimping your mom out campaign. But not everything in the world is the same as selling $3 blow jobs.
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-rep

The guy actually had a point.. who gives a fuck how he says it, it was a valid point. If you send 100 clicks in that can be plenty of data.. you can usually get a ballpark of your ROI from an initial small test like this.
 
miketpowell said:
Here's the helpful hint for the newbies - you can't be to eager to figure out what works and what doesn't in 1 day no matter the clicks. A steady budget and sometime is the only thing that will do it. You can have all the money in the world but you spend $300 in an hour and get no conversions but that doesn't mean anything because it was just a hour.

Some offers are VERY time of day/week dependent and almost every offer I've come across this is some what of a factor. Time of day is harder to track so almost all noobs skip it..... don't.
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QFT +1
 
i can relate to the OP with this because i've been in the same boat ... i can tell you tho that i heard in my one college marketing class that once u show 5 ppl a product, or something u want them to buy .. u have like a 95% confidence rating or something like that. this doesn't pertain to online marketing but say u span that out to 20 or 30 clicks.

one piece of advice tho .. just start w/ a smaller group of kws test them ... then move to somthign else ... i gone so many times spending 100+ not getting any roi
 
Instincts can lie. Data doesn't.

If you don't feel a landing page is relevant enough for a keyword, fix it before you start wasting money testing something you don't think will work.
 
dude try out clicktale as well..i think thats great to see how ur lps r doing ... clicktale.com
 
Jebus, people need to take a stats course.

You can never be 100% sure of your ROI, CTR, or EPC. They are constantly changing, because your environment is constantly changing.

However, the more trials (clicks) you have, the more confident you can be that your ROI/CTR/EPC is within x Standard deviations from what your true ROI/CTR/EPC. Where x decreases as the # of trials goes up. Also, this is dependent on the niche/offer.

If i tell you I'm converting 45% of people who come to my client's page (he's a lawyer), that doesn't mean I'm gonna convert 90% on Acai offers.

If i convert 20/100 for the first 100 clicks, that doesn't mean my conversion rate is going to be 20% for the entire campaign, hell it could be negative. I've had days where i get 25% conversion on a 2% conversion rate campaign, (100+ clicks/day). Stats are so f'd up that you cannot put your head around the amount variance you can experience.

If you bring your A game, and really think about why/how/what you are promoting, everything else will take care of itself. You'll eventually find a winner.
 
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Thanks all for your input. I appreciate it. It's obvious that data is key. I should pay less/no attention to emotion but sometimes it's hard when you see another $100 go down the drain.

I am using CrazyEgg to see how my lp's are doing, I don't see any value in using Clicktale as well. Or am I missing something?
 
cardine said:
Instincts can lie. Data doesn't.
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^ This

Junaid0 said:
Jebus, people need to take a stats course.
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^ And this

Seriously, if you're into PPC and have never taken statistics as a college course you need to stop now and go enroll. Stuff like data sample size & standard deviation is totally invaluable to campaigns.

I look at it this way.

I tend to measure in base 10 for impressions, clicks, CTO (lander to offer) & conversions.

If I've got 100 units then the range I can expect is +/- 10-20% of what I actually have

1000 units +/- 5-10%

10k units +/- 2%

So If you're converting at 25% on 100 clicks then the real number might be 45% ... it might also be 5%.

http://www.wickedfire.com/newbie-questions/40974-like-math-you-better-learn.html

Not exactly what I'm preaching here but math is the single most useful thing school teaches.
 
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