Mt.Gox Meltdown
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Dammit I slept through the lowest point. :sadcrying4:
Anyone pick up any cheap coins last night? I'm pretty sure this was your last chance; Tons of impressive milestones happening within the next month or two that should start the next frenzy off. The number of ATMs that just got shipped out alone is going to change the landscape quite a lot.
Anyone pick up any cheap coins last night? I'm pretty sure this was your last chance; Tons of impressive milestones happening within the next month or two that should start the next frenzy off. The number of ATMs that just got shipped out alone is going to change the landscape quite a lot.
If you think that was the lowest point, you really are kidding yourself. There's a lot to hit the old Bitcoin yet.
In the past, short-sighted naysayers could get away with statements like ^that one and not look like a moron, but now in the enlightened age of the interwebz, we have tools like this one to show them how wrong they are:
Coinometrics - BVIX
That's the volatility index of bitcoin, 30-day average. 17% right now, even after last night's ding. For some perspective, at the end of last year the volatility was 40%. The last year had a volatility of over 100%. 2011 had several hundred percent... The trend is getting much better than anyone realizes, and after we level off from the next step up coming soon, volatility won't be quoted at all anymore by people that are trying to say bitcoin can't be a currency.
Coinometrics - BVIX
That's the volatility index of bitcoin, 30-day average. 17% right now, even after last night's ding. For some perspective, at the end of last year the volatility was 40%. The last year had a volatility of over 100%. 2011 had several hundred percent... The trend is getting much better than anyone realizes, and after we level off from the next step up coming soon, volatility won't be quoted at all anymore by people that are trying to say bitcoin can't be a currency.
Gox is increasingly becoming irrelevant. This is just another nail in the coffin. It has been nearly impossible to withdraw any money on coin sales from there for quite some time.
Other exchange pricing is what's important, and coinbase didn't take much of a hit at all ($700 to $800 in terms of the boom and collapse) which as far as bitcoin is concerned isn't much.
Unlike LukeP i'm not expecting any major gains in pricing over all this 'good news' that's on the horizon. We've had lots of great news in terms of adoption/legalization since December and the prices haven't risen much at all.
Other exchange pricing is what's important, and coinbase didn't take much of a hit at all ($700 to $800 in terms of the boom and collapse) which as far as bitcoin is concerned isn't much.
Unlike LukeP i'm not expecting any major gains in pricing over all this 'good news' that's on the horizon. We've had lots of great news in terms of adoption/legalization since December and the prices haven't risen much at all.
unrelated but every time i see your username this verse plays in my head
www.youtube.com/watch?v=YqJAnQTwmJs#t=1m37s
not embedded due to timestamp
It's 23% now. As for the bold, well. . . again you seem able to see the future. It makes me wonder why you mess with bitcoin at all instead of using your sports almanac, stolen from the future, to place bets. The volatility of bitcoin is completely dependent on confidence and every crisis of such will set it back exponentially.
I am still not sure about bitcoin, although it has a long way to go to be considered a currency.
About the volatility, i am not even sure this can be used as a metric, on its own anyway. Surely this is impacted due to the fact there is an ever increasing supply. I think this fact somewhat reduces the indication volatility gives.
You state that you are all ears when in reality you are very far from it. I am not going to waste my time time trying to convince anyone of anything, all will become clear soon enough, that I am sure.
I am SO ready for it to die... I know Karples means well but jeezus please, this just isn't helping inspire confidence... Maybe we should take up a collection to convince him to retire?
It's not the quantity of the good news I'm talking about; it's the quality.
What I call 'good news' is usually always a bottleneck being opened, such as a shipment of ATMs to a place where the main problem is lack of ability to buy bitcoins... Or even better; tightening on capital controls, such as the ones in Argentina now. These ramp up bitcoin faster than anything else, as evidenced by Cyprus last april. You can literally see a new business added every day accepting bitcoin in Argentina on Coinmap; which of course is just the ones who are brave enough to list themselves publically.
The good news I'm expecting on the horizon isn't a mere "this store or that store started accepting it." I see more important things coming within a few short months that will stop us talking about which stores now accept bitcoin altogether.
Damn, today's vol is really jumping... It was 17% as I posted that, but really, no biggie... It was 40% last month. I like where this is going.
I don't see the future at all; I see trends that I follow very closely, and I have to judge whether or not each trend has the strength to overcome any obstacles in its' way... So I don't have a single date for you; just an assurance that the strength behind bitcoin's drive for adoption is not going to be a failpoint under any circumstances. Even if made illegal here.
Even so, and even if none of my optimism about future awesome devolopments pays off, why don't you try zooming out and seeing the bigger picture?
This WaPo writer could:
These four charts suggest that Bitcoin will stabilize in the future
The construct of this market-maker system is inherently destabilizing. Significant changes need to be made in the way the average person exchanges bitcoin before it will become remotely stable. It's encouraging that bitcoin is becoming less volatile, but that in no way suggests it will soon be stable enough to be considered a viable currency. It is still insanely volatile. The good part is that the points of extreme volatility are exposing the, "broken" aspects of the bitcoin economy so they can be fixed. At this point, as ironic as it may be, the systems that facilitate the adoption of bitcoin by the masses are still the ones holding bitcoin back.
I am still looking for historical, daily high/low [and average if possible] if anyone knows of a source. The only sources I can find do not date as far back as I would like. If anyone has a source, please let me know.
'legal currency status' is what holds bitcoin back from the masses, and the government is passively smacking it down.
i used to hear this same hype about online gaming & neteller back in the early 2000's, all the prophets projecting that the sheer volume would prompt the US to declare the grey area white.
the opposite happened -- they brought the hammer down and fucked the whole industry with a penstroke as a rider on a port security bill.
i see people posting about how hopeful they are now that Bitcoin ATMs are being distributed, and i chuckle... they haven't gotten fucked yet. .gov can and will wreck yo shit anytime they fucking feel like it.
Notice I did not say, "holding bitcoin back from the masses," but, "holding bitcoin back." If bitcoin were suddenly recognized as a currency by the major governments of the world, volatility would explode to astronomical levels. There are systemic problems with the bitcoin exchanges that have been partially exposed over the past 6 months. These problems would only be exacerbated by more widespread adoption.