Gold Reaches Record High

When the dollar crashes and humanity resorts to cannibalism your gold will be worthless, meanwhile my canned goods, underground bunker, and endless supply of firearms and ammunition will ensure my position as the king of Jefferson County. I'll have a loyal following, plenty of henchmen, and a steady stream of the sexiest caribou and wildebeest for mating. You'll see.
 


Technically, since our currency isn't backed by gold, gold is not money.
That's like saying that since the Dollar is not backed by Yen, the Yen is not money.

Gold is money. It compromises currency reserves all over the world. The US dollar is the common global exchange reserve, but gold is also used as monetary reserves.

But how long do we think society will go after a total collapse before instituting a new currency? Technology will be the reason gold never regains its former role as money in my opinion.
Society to me means the market. It means a market money, emerging as gold did, freely chosen by various market actors until it becomes ubiquitous.

I think you mean government will institute a new currency. No fiat currency has ever emerged out of nothing in the history of the world. The pattern has always been, barter => commodity money => commodity money standard => notes back by commodity money => fiat money.

Fiat money cannot emerge in the market because it is by definition "fiat". So you're talking about some government(s) creating a new fiat money out of nothing, and forcing everyone to accept it.

That is pretty unlikely. The new fiat money would be no different than the last currency that government managed, except the notes and/or denominations would appear different. It would be like if you went bankrupt, then changed your name to Sumit Dullspace and expected everyone to pretend your credit record was clean.

As far as gold reclaiming glory, I'm no gold bug. I do understand the important role gold has played in the development of markets and civilization. It is possible some other standard will emerge, but I cannot see any particular reason why it would not be gold.

Technology actually makes gold a better currency than national fiat, because gold can be independent of central banks and territorial legal tender monopolies. It can be (in the digital age) the uber currency available to settle transactions when the unstable fiat national currencies make global (and digital) trade exceptionally risky.
 
None of us can say for certain what is going to happen, but I think it's telling that even the people betting on gold are acknowledging that we are currently in a bubble, don't you?
If you're betting, then you're speculating. A lot of people are buying and holding gold as a liquid asset in lieu of holding cash reserves.

Sure some people don't buy at the top of a move, and wait for the correction before buying more, but these people I am thinking of are buying gold to hold long term.

I can't understand why people believe that gold is in a bubble unless they do not understand the relationship between fiat money and gold nominally valued in those fiat currencies. I think it goes back to the misunderstandings people have about what money is, assuming that money is just another investment class, not a means of exchange which performs a very specific and important role in the economy.
 
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Gold is simply another tool used by money powers to manipulate. Until you understand what money really is, what substance people choose to label as money is meaningless.

I'll just leave this here...

David Astle's "The Babylonian Woe" is the finest book on the
history of money in antiquity that I've ever read. In this scholarly
work, he has presented to the world a history of the effects of
monetary mechanics in very ancient times. It illustrates how, even in
the earliest times of which written record remains, the days of
Babylonia or before, a so-called monetary science undoubtedly existed;
being then, as in today, never more than as instrument by which its
secret and cynical controllers wittingly influenced the destinies of
individuals, nations, and empires as to (temporary) glory or final
disaster.
This important and well-documented work is a most useful reference
book; complementing any study of Economic or Monetary history. It will
be a great asset to learned societies, top management, and self-
teaching individuals in all parts of the world.
In his preface, Mr. Astle wrote:
"In almost all of books of reference on the history of money was
practically no clear approach to the subject of money and finance, or
to those exchange systems that must have existed in order that the so-
called civilizations might come to be. In the odd case where the
translations of the texts might reveal some key clue, no more special
emphasis was placed herein than might have been placed on the mention
of a gold cup, a ring, a seal, or some exquisite piece of stone work.
In almost all of the works of the great archaeologists and
scholars specializing in the ancient civilizations, there is a virtual
silence on that all important matter, the system of distribution of
food surpluses, and surpluses of all those items needed towards the
maintenance of a good and continuing life so far as were required by
climate and customs.
On the all important subject of the consequences of the creation
and issuance of money by private persons as opposed to its creation
and issuance according to the will of a benevolent, instructed and
dedicated ruler, almost no speculation seems to exist in ancient or in
modern times.
JCT: The situation is just as if future historians, upon studying
today's economy, found that there were no "economics" textbooks
explaining how banking worked. Considering how many such textbooks
there are, they would also find it quite mystifying.
I will be studying his book in conjunction with Professor's
Carroll Quigley's book "Tragedy and Hope where he mentions what he
calls "unorthodox" financial methods as opposed to "orthodox"
financial methods. They can be be distinguished by the fact that
"orthodox" finance has governments allowing banks to create the money
and then borrowing that money from them at interest to create massive
growth of public debt whereas "unorthodox" finance has government
Treasuries create the money and borrowing that money from the Treasury
without interest to create a stable debt where all payments go against
the principal.
In anticipation of a major improvement on the current unsafe
engineering design of money, I will be arguing that the unorthodox
financial methods we will be studying are better than the orthodox
financial methods that now are enslaving all the planet's nations to
insurmountable debt.

PDF version of The Babylonian Woe
 
When the dollar crashes and humanity resorts to cannibalism your gold will be worthless, meanwhile my canned goods, underground bunker, and endless supply of firearms and ammunition will ensure my position as the king of Jefferson County. I'll have a loyal following, plenty of henchmen, and a steady stream of the sexiest caribou and wildebeest for mating. You'll see.

^^ This

Guns is the New New Thing. Know your weapons!
 
The people who keep saying gold only derives its value through jewelry are missing a few pieces. It is not the beauty or jewelry aspect that makes gold valuable.

Gold isn't money because people one day decided it should be money over other items. Gold is money because it is the best thing we have found so far to measure value. It always has been money in economic turmoil and will continue to be until something better can be found to replace it. People may not want to turn to it or think they will never turn to it, however, historically speaking they always do because there is nothing better to turn to.

Gold is nonperishable so it won't deteriorate with time like many other assets or physical goods. Other items fall apart or get destroyed. Not gold. Bartering with animals or cigarettes or anything works for a little while, but eventually they will die or get destroyed. Gold can last thousands of years no problem.

Gold can't be cheated. Gold is gold. You can't print gold and you can't get gold from nothing. You can only get gold with physical labor. Until the bankers figure out how to alchemically turn base elements into gold we are safe from being robbed through inflation.

A digital system or paper system can't replace gold because it can always be, and is, cheated. Until people can figure out how to cheat gold and create it without actual physical labor it will continue to be a safe measure of value and a wise investment for maintaining one's purchasing power.
 
The people who keep saying gold only derives its value through jewelry are missing a few pieces. It is not the beauty or jewelry aspect that makes gold valuable.

Gold isn't money because people one day decided it should be money over other items. Gold is money because it is the best thing we have found so far to measure value. It always has been money in economic turmoil and will continue to be until something better can be found to replace it. People may not want to turn to it or think they will never turn to it, however, historically speaking they always do because there is nothing better to turn to.

Gold is nonperishable so it won't deteriorate with time like many other assets or physical goods. Other items fall apart or get destroyed. Not gold. Bartering with animals or cigarettes or anything works for a little while, but eventually they will die or get destroyed. Gold can last thousands of years no problem.

Gold can't be cheated. Gold is gold. You can't print gold and you can't get gold from nothing. You can only get gold with physical labor. Until the bankers figure out how to alchemically turn base elements into gold we are safe from being robbed through inflation.

A digital system or paper system can't replace gold because it can always be, and is, cheated. Until people can figure out how to cheat gold and create it without actual physical labor it will continue to be a safe measure of value and a wise investment for maintaining one's purchasing power.

And yet none of that erases the fact that we are in a gold bubble right now...

The same could be said for land - more so because it has real value. But property prices collapsed because they were overvalued. Gold is overvalued right now. That doesn't mean it's worthless, it just means that the price will correct itself at some time in the future. Maybe tomorrow, maybe next month or maybe next year. We didn't know when the housing bubble was going to burst but we knew it was coming and when it did a lot of people got burned because they assumed property values can't go down because there is only so much land and the population is growing, supply and demand, blah, blah, blah...

The market is being manipulated right now which means you can't expect normal rules to apply. Just like with the interference that lead to the housing bubble, outside forces put pressure on prices in one direction until the inevitable correction occurred.
 
The market is being manipulated right now
The market is always being manipulated, retail investors are like ants scurrying around under the boots of giants, thrilled if a crumb falls of the table.

You're still talking about gold speculation, not gold as money. That's two different things. You may think gold is overvalued as a commodity, but by definition, it cannot be overvalued as a money.

And people like Jimmy Rogers, who helped make Soros his money, collect gold constantly because it is an excellent hedge against bad and inflationary money.
 
posted by Unarmed Gunman:
However, technology will possibly render gold as a store of value obsolete. The history of gold being a store of value might have a lot to do with convenience and universal acceptance throughout history. But unless the Internet is going away, and electronic payments and all of the security that goes with it (ie. harder for people to steal), and convenience (debit cards), etc., then I'm not sure people will look to gold.

Actually, online payment systems have been dabbling in gold since well before the current run up. After many disasters and much drama, GoldMoney is pretty much the industry leader (er, pretty much last one standing actually.) Unfortunately, no one inside of that extremely small market actually seems interested in using gold as money. GM (according to James Turk himself) is almost exclusively used as a means of buying and selling by its users, with actual p2p transaction volume negligible.

I was in that business for most of the last decade. It has huge potential, not because of weird economic collapse paranoia but because of the simple vagaries of cross-border currency fluctuations and the economic cost to foreigners of USD hegemony. But unfortunately the concept still doesn't seem to have any legs under it, fifteen years after it came to market.


Frank
 
Good post Frank.

That's the thing about digital money. What backs it? Any universal money will need to be backed by something, otherwise it is just some guy punching out 1s and 0s.

Right now, fiat money is backed by the tax bases and their credit load. That is starting to collapse. You can't base a means of exchange and store of value on debt and promises. You certainly can't pyramid debt and promises on top of debt and promises.

If not gold, it will be silver, or diamonds or pot pies or sow's ears.
 
The market is always being manipulated, retail investors are like ants scurrying around under the boots of giants, thrilled if a crumb falls of the table.

You're still talking about gold speculation, not gold as money. That's two different things. You may think gold is overvalued as a commodity, but by definition, it cannot be overvalued as a money.

And people like Jimmy Rogers, who helped make Soros his money, collect gold constantly because it is an excellent hedge against bad and inflationary money.

If you want to get into semantics then, how about the gold market is being manipulated more than usual? This is an acknowledged fact. At some point they will lock in their profits, causing the price of gold to fall.

You seem to be really big on theory, but not big on real world scenarios, but basically what that means is people that are buying gold at $1,250/oz now will be stuck trying to sell it at considerably less when the gold bubble bursts. You can look at that in terms of how many milkshakes you can you buy with $1250 now, vs how many can you buy when the bubble bursts with, say $800 if that helps. But McDonalds doesn't take gold at the register, so you'll still have to convert your gold to currency, and it will be worth less in terms of purchasing power (not just nominal price) once the profits are locked in and the price corrects.

Theory is an awesome thing to debate with because it is often hard to disprove, so I tend to just stick to real world scenarios. Buy while its high though, if it makes you feel better.
 
If you want to get into semantics then, how about the gold market is being manipulated more than usual? This is an acknowledged fact. At some point they will lock in their profits, causing the price of gold to fall.
How does anyone know how much it is being manipulated more than usual?

You seem to be really big on theory, but not big on real world scenarios
I'm big on both actually. When my observations conflict with good theory, I check both.

basically what that means is people that are buying gold at $1,250/oz now will be stuck trying to sell it at considerably less when the gold bubble bursts. You can look at that in terms of how many milkshakes you can you buy with $1250 now, vs how many can you buy when the bubble bursts with, say $800 if that helps. But McDonalds doesn't take gold at the register, so you'll still have to convert your gold to currency, and it will be worth less in terms of purchasing power (not just nominal price) once the profits are locked in and the price corrects.
People hedging in gold aren't looking to get back into fiat. They are hedging against fiat. Again, you are talking about speculating. Many people are buying gold for use as money (store of value).

Theory is an awesome thing to debate with because it is often hard to disprove, so I tend to just stick to real world scenarios.
Logical theories are hard to disprove because to do so would require refuting logic. "Real world" observation is plenty fuzzy. People are limited by the scope of their own biases when interpreting what is going on around them.

A turkey, who is well fed and cared for every day by the farmer, has no conception that the farmer intends to one day cut-off his head and eat him. That possible outcome lies outside all of the stimulus he receives daily and the scope of his past experiences. All of his experience with the farmer indicates to the turkey that the farmer actually cares for his well being.

Buy while its high though, if it makes you feel better.
But no one has recommended that.

The price of gold in dollars has gone up. But that is as much a referendum on the dollar as gold. For you to claim the gold market is manipulated, while ignoring the fact THAT YOU KNOW that the dollar market is manipulated (and much more so than gold because it is in fact fiat) is just ...

The dollar is your nominal measuring stick. Your measuring stick is broken due to inflation.

Fundamentals win out in the long run, even if markets are irrational in the short run. The long run fundamentals favor gold, which is why many very smart people are shifting out of cash and into it. Maybe you will be right by being a contrarian.
 
How does anyone know how much it is being manipulated more than usual?

I provided a couple of links further up the thread. Cliff Notes version, Soros and others admit they are speculating on gold even though they know it to be a bubble, because they feel they can make a fat profit and get out before less sophisticated investors figure out what's going on. They are giants and can therefore manipulate the prices, which leads to a lot of gold speculation by less sophisticated buyers (such as myself) that see a shitty economy and increasing gold prices and figure we should get in on it, which feeds the cycle of increasing prices. However, once the giants back out, the price will have to correct leaving less sophisticated investors not sure if to sell, when to sell, etc.


People hedging in gold aren't looking to get back into fiat. They are hedging against fiat. Again, you are talking about speculating. Many people are buying gold for use as money (store of value).

I agree with this statement, but again - people like Soros don't appear to be hedging with gold, but rather speculating. So they will want to get back into fiat with their profits, and move their capital elsewhere. They are market makers.


Logical theories are hard to disprove because to do so would require refuting logic. "Real world" observation is plenty fuzzy. People are limited by the scope of their own biases when interpreting what is going on around them.

Agreed, but the real world is all that matters. Perception is everything, even if it is wrong, or illogical.

The price of gold in dollars has gone up. But that is as much a referendum on the dollar as gold. For you to claim the gold market is manipulated, while ignoring the fact THAT YOU KNOW that the dollar market is manipulated (and much more so than gold because it is in fact fiat) is just ...

Of course they are both being manipulated. The fact that money markets trade in fiat currencies is irrelevant to that point, because fiat or not, they have a price just like gold, You still have to make purchases with capital in either market, so I don't see how one is different than the other in terms of manipulation. And even if that were the case, it doesn't make the gold bubble less real.

The dollar is your nominal measuring stick. Your measuring stick is broken due to inflation.

It is the de facto measuring stick, not just mine.

The long run fundamentals favor gold...

Not necessarily. The long run fundamentals indicate a weaker dollar - yes. We've always been told that means stronger gold, but it seems the markets may have changed. Gold isn't the only way to hedge against the dollar, and in fact there are more efficient hedges against the dollar now. Gold is only worth what people are willing to "pay" for it (in terms of trade). Gold has historically been "perceived" as valuable for a lot of reasons, many of which no longer hold true. But again, I'm not claiming gold is worthless, just simply stating that all indicators show that we are in a bubble, which means we will eventually see a correction. That is all.