Facebook Financials and Stats (S1 just released)

The markets know that they could tripple or more than profit in a day by firing all their ad review team :-)

Just rumor of it will throw the stock into frenzy.

Today FUBK gained 13% on rumors that FB plans to fire the whole Facebook Review team.

Today FUBK gained 8% after Mark Zuckerberg announced that everyone with a FB account will be offered another free account. This will result in at least 2,000000 new fake accounts..
 


I'll go ahead and go against the grain:

Facebook is worth far more than $1B.

Why? Because they have more marketing information in that database of theirs than anything has ever had. Proper data mining and you can sell anyone anything.

With this database, you know:
- who's having relationship problems. Who's been single forever. Who has few friends that are females.
- Who's trying to lose weight.
- Who works where (and who's bitching about where they work).
- Who's listening to what
- Who's watching what
- Who's cheering for whom
- Who's a total social tipping point person (I forget the word) that you need on your side
- Who's voting for who
- Who's eating what
- Who's a gambler
- Who's praying for whom
- Who's jobless
- Who's going to what school
- Who's having money problems
- Who's addicted to Farmville/games/etc..

Need I go on? I probably didn't even scratch the surface.

That database is worth more than anything that's ever existed. Fuck $1 Billion. In the right devious hands, that thing could make $1B back in less than a year. The trick would not getting everyone to hate on you and leave.
 
Berto said:
I'll go ahead and go against the grain:

Facebook is worth far more than $1B.

Why? Because they have more marketing information in that database of theirs than anything has ever had. Proper data mining and you can sell anyone anything.

With this database, you know:
- who's having relationship problems. Who's been single forever. Who has few friends that are females.
- Who's trying to lose weight.
- Who works where (and who's bitching about where they work).
- Who's listening to what
- Who's watching what
- Who's cheering for whom
- Who's a total social tipping point person (I forget the word) that you need on your side
- Who's voting for who
- Who's eating what
- Who's a gambler
- Who's praying for whom
- Who's jobless
- Who's going to what school
- Who's having money problems
- Who's addicted to Farmville/games/etc..

Need I go on? I probably didn't even scratch the surface.

That database is worth more than anything that's ever existed. Fuck $1 Billion. In the right devious hands, that thing could make $1B back in less than a year. The trick would not getting everyone to hate on you and leave.
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$1B was last years profit. It is getting valuated at around $83B right now.

I don't think $83B is overvaluation. The price will obviously spike during the IPO... after that I think it'll go back down once the hype is over, but I still think it will be valued at over $83B 5 years from now.
 
Simplepro said:
Make your cash ... don't catch the knife.

Easy peazzzzzy
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good luck "making cash" on something without a chart history. plenty of other stocks with more growth potential for serious investors to trade. FB is for morons and gamblers.
 
what happens to facebooks stock price when they do another design change? ppl freak the fuck out and there is a lot of negative press for such a minor change.

no other company has really ever dealt with that before
 
leadsupplier said:
what happens to facebooks stock price when they do another design change? ppl freak the fuck out and there is a lot of negative press for such a minor change.

no other company has really ever dealt with that before
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That's a valid point. People are soo pissed at FB when they unveil a new design...
 
cardine said:
$1B was last years profit. It is getting valuated at around $83B right now.

I don't think $83B is overvaluation. The price will obviously spike during the IPO... after that I think it'll go back down once the hype is over, but I still think it will be valued at over $83B 5 years from now.
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Anyone remember Myspace. Just saying. Most people buy sites for like 10 months revenue. Granted all the user data is worth something. However 83 billion is crazy. Every day it gets worse and worse. I think facebook only has a few good years left.
 
Rage9 said:
Anyone remember Myspace. Just saying. Most people buy sites for like 10 months revenue. Granted all the user data is worth something. However 83 billion is crazy. Every day it gets worse and worse. I think facebook only has a few good years left.
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People value shitty adsense sites at 10 months revenue.

People value sites that have massive amounts of data about most the population, are the second most visited site in the world, have ridiculously high time on site, and have a ridiculously high member base, half of which log into the site every fucking day for a lot more than 10 months revenue.
 
knowing the little i do know about the stock market, i think facebook is WAAAAY more valuable than Myspace. So don't compare. Myspace had nowhere near the popularity and penetration Facebook has in all other industries.

Right now when i look at FB the most valuable thing i see is their data. We all work with user data, so the fact that FB has 800 Million users .. if you times that by $10 per user info, which could be on the low end, thats $8billion.

They had $1Bill profit which is pretty good, but the only way i see that rising is if they come out with an adsense alternative, or bid prices keep rising.

The bottom line IMO is that for them to stay anywhere and continue to grow, they'll have to innovate TREMENDOUSLY. Google was just a search engine, then raped everything, innovated like fuck, now are patenting self driving cars ... WTF? completely unrelated, and unexplored industries, but excellent innovation.

Unfortunately i don't see the same for Facebook. Hindsight is 20/20 so only time will tell but I don't see where Facebook can really go from here.

Also, forgot to add I definately don't think Zuck can handle a public company. You know how when people say you shouldn't do things you love for money because then that love turn into a burden, well i think thats whats gunna happen to Zucks once this bitch goes public. Making brash, bold, decisions is going to be 10x more difficult when everyone's watching.
 
leadsupplier said:
knowing the little i do know about the stock market, i think facebook is WAAAAY more valuable than Myspace. So don't compare. Myspace had nowhere near the popularity and penetration Facebook has in all other industries.

Right now when i look at FB the most valuable thing i see is their data. We all work with user data, so the fact that FB has 800 Million users .. if you times that by $10 per user info, which could be on the low end, thats $8billion.

They had $1Bill profit which is pretty good, but the only way i see that rising is if they come out with an adsense alternative, or bid prices keep rising.

The bottom line IMO is that for them to stay anywhere and continue to grow, they'll have to innovate TREMENDOUSLY. Google was just a search engine, then raped everything, innovated like fuck, now are patenting self driving cars ... WTF? completely unrelated, and unexplored industries, but excellent innovation.

Unfortunately i don't see the same for Facebook. Hindsight is 20/20 so only time will tell but I don't see where Facebook can really go from here.

Also, forgot to add I definately don't think Zuck can handle a public company. You know how when people say you shouldn't do things you love for money because then that love turn into a burden, well i think thats whats gunna happen to Zucks once this bitch goes public. Making brash, bold, decisions is going to be 10x more difficult when everyone's watching.
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I agree with everything in this post. Google is big now because it stayed ahead of the game in everyway possible. FB hasn't grown much since it started (new products i mean, not new users). Zuck is way too young an inexperienced to run a public company!
 
also kind of strange facebook went with a dog of a bank like morgan stanley. at least goldman sachs came in #3. should have gone with jp morgan.
 
I don`t think Facebook can get any bigger than it is. The only thing I can think of that will create more value for investors is a Facebook content network, as some of you have said. With just the current on-site ad system in place I don`t see there`s nowhere further to go.
 
IceToEskimos said:
I am consistently amazed by the power of hype. Even when the numbers are screaming out facts, people would rather place their bets based on hope, hype, and gut feelings...only to complain when they lose.
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Trust me, most stocks are traded on hype. Stock trading are subjective in nature. When you feel FB stock is overvalued, there are 100's of other investors think that its perfectly valued. This is how it works and this is why it work. if everyone feels the stock is overvalued, there will be no buyers.

Do you know for sure X stock will outperform in the next quarter? No, but you "feel" it will. The "feel" factor + hype is what drives the price.

I Spent 7 years in investment banking myself and trust me, we bought a lot of stocks on pure speculation. In fact the clients keep asking for stuff which has no fundamentals. Contrary to popular belief that fundamentals are most important, many shitty stocks give you fantastic returns even though they are not even worth half of it.
 
I think the big question to ask is this: Why is Facebook IPO'ing?

They have 3.77 bill in revenue, 1 bill in profit for 2011.

They are asking for a $5 billion dollar IPO, they made 20% of that in profit in a year.

Are they IPO'ing to get capital for growth?

Here's Google's S1 for comparison: http://www.buec.udel.edu/pollacks/Acct351/handouts/SEC Form S-1 filed by Google.pdf

Google IPO'd @ 2.7 Billion with $250 million in profit. So about 10x profit.

Facebook is IPO'ing at 5x profit.

At first I really thought that Facebook was IPO'ing just to make a buck, but when compared to Google it doesn't look that crazy.

If you invested in Google's IPO, you'd have seen around 6x return.

Interesting stuff!

But let's not kid ourselves, almost none of us are competent investors.. so we shouldn't act like we know what we're doing.
 
Falian said:
I think the big question to ask is this: Why is Facebook IPO'ing?
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Investors do need to exit at some point, partially or full.
Once you take VC money, they will look at an exit at some point.

And agree with Vinny on the Hype.
Riding Hype or trend trading is the best way to make money in the stock market, once you know how to ride.
 
The only concern I have with Facebook as a company right now is that from now on they will only be adding low value users. I'm talking about users from 3rd world countries who have limited access to the internet. I wonder if there is any data confirming this?

Anyone on this planet who has a credit card has already created a facebook account, or has made the conscious decision not to join. So basically the stock isn't going to go up due to growth in users.

They need to somehow leverage the data they currently have. If they launch an Adsense alternative that would show Facebook ads on publisher sites they could really change the game. Then again, how much of the 83B valuation already has taken this into account?
 
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