Brief: Polish President Killed In Plane Crash
April 10, 2010 1044 GMT
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
Polish President Lech Kaczynski, his wife, and 87 other people aboard the presidential jet were killed April 10 after the plane crashed on the approach to the Smolensk airport in western Russia. Some reports have put the death toll as high as 130, though that number has not been officially confirmed. The weather conditions around Smolensk are reported to have been foggy and the plane is believed to have missed the runway on the pilot's fourth attempt at landing, crashing into nearby trees. According to the Polish Foreign Ministry, also on the plane were Army Chief of Staff Gen. Franciszek Gagor, National Bank President Slawomir Skrzypek and Deputy Foreign Minister Andrzej Kremer. The presidential Tu-154 jet was around 20 years old, and there had been discussions in Poland on replacing it, but no replacement had been purchased due to insufficient funding. Kaczynski was on his way to Smolensk to mark the 70-year anniversary of the Katyn massacre, during which Soviet soldiers executed Polish officers. He had refused to attend an earlier Katyn ceremony organized by the Russian government that his prime minister -- and domestic rival -- Donald Tusk attended with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin only a few days earlier. The purpose of the Russian ceremony was to reset relations between Warsaw and Moscow, but also to drive a wedge between anti-Russian forces in Polish politics -- led by Kaczynski -- and those open to an accommodation with Russia, led by Tusk. Because of Kaczynski's outspoken criticism of Russia, his death will undoubtedly spin Warsaw into a frenzy of conspiracy theories ahead of the upcoming presidential elections. Kaczynski was going to face a stiff challenge from Tusk's ally and the current speaker of the parliament, Bronislaw Komorowski, who will take over the presidency according to the Polish constitution. It is highly likely that Kaczynski's right-wing nationalist supporters will see the accident as more than just related to foggy conditions, further dividing nationalists and centrists in Poland.