Peak Oil my butt..

Benji49

Benji49

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Feb 6, 2008
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Read this guy:
Energy Report

The Money Quotes:
"TER: Do you see additional increases or advances in technology that will allow further recoverability of oil?

KS: Absolutely. Right now, the oil industry is where the Internet was in 1996. These new technologies are coming in and we have not yet seen any bumps in the road in terms of the potential for horizontal drilling and multi-stage tracking. These technologies are now being tweaked and refined by many different players and they're continuing to increase production levels and total recoverable oil.

There are also new technologies that are just coming into the fore now, such as the new microbial technologies that basically allow oil to flow more easily underground; these little microbes can reduce the surface tension of oil and make it flow to the well bore better. "
End Quote

Somewhat technical, but really the future is still oil. Oil, oil, and more oil.

Full disclosure: I work with this guy on his website. I'm trying to convince him to use Clickbank to push his memberships. He hasn't gone for it yet. Maybe next month.
 


Benji49 said:
I'm trying to convince him to use Clickbank to push his memberships. He hasn't gone for it yet. Maybe next month.
Click to expand...

I'm glad he didn't go for it, if he wants any credibility at all...

Peak oil eventually will happen though; that is a fact.

Oil takes million of years of geological processes and the mass extinction of dinosaurs, lol, to create. That's a non-renewable resource if I've ever known one.

Every oil reserve follows a predictable trajectory upwards then downwards from discovery until depletion. The Earth as a whole isn't immune to this; it too will deplete...predictably.

The debate over peak oil should be about...when.

I'm not worried about it either. ;) :squints towards the big nuclear globule of fuel hanging in the sky:
 
UnripeArbiter said:
Oil takes million of years of geological processes and the mass extinction of dinosaurs, lol, to create. That's a non-renewable resource if I've ever known one.
Click to expand...

That seems like a good argument and we have been told that for years but not everyone believes that. The Russians have scientists that are saying oil is not a fossil fuel. It is not from plants and animal remains under ground. They believe it is made from the immense pressure under the earth and if you study the molecular structure of it it appears it is not biological in origin. It will regenerate in areas if the area is left alone. And that seems to be the case as oil fields will replenish slowly if not pumped for a while.

UnripeArbiter said:
Every oil reserve follows a predictable trajectory upwards then downwards from discovery until depletion. The Earth as a whole isn't immune to this; it too will deplete...predictably.
Click to expand...

The USA Oil production did peak in 1970. True. But what would that curve look like if Alaska was fully developed and there was more drilling in the 48 states and the Gulf of Mexico? Hard to say. Some people say there is a LOT of oil in Alaska. Plus Oil Shales in Canada are profitable if oil is over $40 a barrel.

I think Peak Oil is a scare tactic so you dont go ballistic paying $5 a gallon while oil companies make record profits. They will pull that trick again when they feel like it.
 
Drake said:
That seems like a good argument and we have been told that for years but not everyone believes that. The Russians have scientists that are saying oil is not a fossil fuel. It is not from plants and animal remains under ground. They believe it is made from the immense pressure under the earth and if you study the molecular structure of it it appears it is not biological in origin. It will regenerate in areas if the area is left alone. And that seems to be the case as oil fields will replenish slowly if not pumped for a while.
Click to expand...

I wonder exactly how slowly they "replenish"? How long will that "replenishment" continue, indefinitely? The theory seems iffy, in the least.

Drake said:
The USA Oil production did peak in 1970. True. But what would that curve look like if Alaska was fully developed and there was more drilling in the 48 states and the Gulf of Mexico? Hard to say. Some people say there is a LOT of oil in Alaska. Plus Oil Shales in Canada are profitable if oil is over $40 a barrel.

I think Peak Oil is a scare tactic so you dont go ballistic paying $5 a gallon while oil companies make record profits. They will pull that trick again when they feel like it.
Click to expand...

The USA may have hit peak oil production, but fully exploiting Alaska would only inch the peak of the bell curve to the right a bit.

Nevertheless, global peak oil is inevitable.

"Predictions of the timing of peak oil include the possibilities that it has recently occurred, that it will occur shortly, or that a plateau of oil production will sustain supply for up to 100 years. None of these predictions dispute the peaking of oil production, but disagree only on when it will occur."

- Timing of Peak Oil

So it seems the best case scenario is that oil production will plateau and sustain us for another century. Up to a hundred years.

I'm betting that in our lifetimes global peak oil will occur. (the world's energy demands are explosive)

I'm not worried about it though. (faith in technology, not blind)

It's just a bet, anyway.

peakoil.png


It seems most people are betting pretty damn soon.... It's pretty safe to bet within the next century, I'd say.
 
btw, just read the article. (skimmed)

Think of it this way... the better tech we create to get more and more oil out of the ground and at faster and faster rates is only insuring we'll eventually reach the peak.

Imagine that the Earth is a barrel of oil and humans are sucking at it with a straw. This new tech they've mentioned is only replacing the straw with a garden hose. The barrel isn't getting any bigger.... (but the sun is still hangin' there)
 
I once heard a guy who is really high up in the oil industry talk about it.
He basically said something like "If we don't sell as much as we can now, we'll never sell it later."

All the talk about the shortage of supply is bullshit. What happened to coil a while back is going to happen to oil too.

It will still be used, but not as widely as it's being used now. Oil will always has it's niche just like coil has now. It will remain a huge business, just like coil is now. But it will not remain the center of public hysteria for long.

Eventually, the focus will shift to who controls fresh water supplies. And people will think of oil as just another commodity.

So for oil producers, the main concern is how to outsell all other producers NOW.

Of course, not many people know when that NOW is going to end. But it certainly won't end because the Earth has run out of oil.
 
Drilling while we can is fine, but peak oil will eventually happen. The problem is that when we do realize that we've reached the peak, we'll probably be 10-20 years past the peak. People who suggest that peak oil is a myth, probably couldn't tell you the definition of "finite".
 
You can only reach peak oil if you have a definite value of oil available.

Problem is there is a huge quantity of oil yet to be found or developed. The oil sands in Western Canada is just one example - Alaska is also a huge, untapped resource.

OPEC is starting to realize that alternative fuels are becoming more and more advanced and now are a much more realistic alternative in certain cases. They are now trying to act as the good guys and pawn off as much oil as they can within the next decade, without creating too much buzz, because they know sooner or later the high demand for oil will be diminished and the high prices won't be able to be sustained.

It's always all about the money.
 
Drake said:
That seems like a good argument and we have been told that for years but not everyone believes that. The Russians have scientists that are saying oil is not a fossil fuel. It is not from plants and animal remains under ground. They believe it is made from the immense pressure under the earth and if you study the molecular structure of it it appears it is not biological in origin. It will regenerate in areas if the area is left alone. And that seems to be the case as oil fields will replenish slowly if not pumped for a while....
Click to expand...

That's interesting, do you have a link? I've never bought the story that oil was the result of compaction & chemical change of ancient vegetation. The ranging depths oil is found at all around the globe, plus the amount of oil so far extracted and the current known reserves just doesn't support the old "made from vegetation" theory. At least in my book.
 
FTC-Hater said:
You can only reach peak oil if you have a definite value of oil available.
Click to expand...

We may not have a definitive value of the remaining oil left, but that doesn't change the fact that the total amount remaining is still finite.

Just because we can't see to the bottom of the barrel doesn't mean the barrel doesn't have a bottom.

SandnSurf said:
That's interesting, do you have a link?
Click to expand...

It would be an interesting read.
 
FTC-Hater said:
You can only reach peak oil if you have a definite value of oil available.

Problem is there is a huge quantity of oil yet to be found or developed. The oil sands in Western Canada is just one example - Alaska is also a huge, untapped resource.
Click to expand...

oil is a finite resource though, even if we don't find it all it doesn't mean it's unlimited.
 
papajohn56 said:
oil is a finite resource though, even if we don't find it all it doesn't mean it's unlimited.
Click to expand...

I know, I was just saying that by the time we find the finite amount of oil and actually drill it other alternative fuel will be much more advanced and will be able to replace oil to such a degree that it will no longer be needed in certain ways and demand will fall.

This is why I got out of oil for the long term. Over the next few decades oil will be less and less of a super commodity even if resources start running low. This isn't an overnight affect but gradually certain functions requiring oil will switch to more economical sources of power.
 
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