Make some money from presidentials w/ crazy ass markets

G

greenleaves

New member
Jan 25, 2008
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With all the people who think Trump is a shoe in for the republican race and Hillary is a shoe in for the next president, there seems to a big difference between the publicly perceived reality of the probability of each winning vs the true odds.

I have a few dimes running on this election, I've been slowly putting money on, and you can get these odds now:
Jeb for president 5.3 (about +430 for those non-decimal people)
Jeb for republican candidate 2.6 (about +160 for those non-decimal people)

If you ask me, this is almost free money with minimal risk.
 


Yeah, there are arbitrage opportunities, but for the most part they are not worth the time. Most books have small limits for these types of bets.

The money is in the exchanges, but any arbitrage opportunities tend to give small profits (a few dollars literally while tying up a big chunk of bankroll)

I'm not looking for that. I simply saw a big divide between implied odds and what I perceive to be true odds. IMHO Bush is WAY more likely than 2.6:1 to be nominated for the republican party and WAY more likely than 5:1 for US president.

I particularly like the odds on republican nomination.
 
Bovada used to be $50 for prop bets. Intrade shut down, and I think reopened as tradesports.com. What about betfair or some EU exchange site?
 
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