Best book or website about long-term investments / wealth preservation?

charlie.simm

charlie.simm

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Jul 6, 2007
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I'm sure I'm not the only gay webmaster who wants to learn more about long-term investments and wealth preservation.

Most of the websites/blogs I found suck, actually all of them do.

I'm basically looking for websites or books that analyze investment methods and their results over a period of 50 - 100+ years.

Like for example scenarios such as:

George invested in x, y and z back in 1905.

Bill invested in a, b and c back in 1905.

Here's what happened to their portfolios during WWI.

Here's what happened to their portfolios during WWII.

... and so on.

Any recommendations?
 


Wealthy-Barber.jpg


heh, I remember my dad first read that book when I was about 10, and wouldn't shut up about it. Constantly pushed it onto me.
 
Ron Paul - The Case for Gold

Anything by Mises & Rothbard

Harry Browne - Fail Safe Investing

Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor

Philip Fisher - Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
 
There are several great books on portfolio management and investment analysis (check out the course requirements and the library at http://www.cfainstitute.org ) but outside of private research I can't think of an individual book completely covering your request.

A few that I'd suggest outside of the above curriculum:

Manias, Panics and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises (no link but you should find it on Amazon)
The Extraordinary Delusions and the Madness of Crowds Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, Volume I, by Charles Mackay
This Time Its Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises http://www.economics.harvard.edu/files/faculty/51_This_Time_Is_Different.pdf
 
Thanks guys!

Here's a quick update:

1) Found book summaries / cliff notes for The Wealthy Barber (recommended by Kiopa_Matt), so I ended up reading those as opposed to reading the entire book. Decent information, I'm glad it reconfirmed one of my principles (a not-so-common one), the only slightly negative element I identified is that the author is a bit *too* optimistic when it comes to returns.

If I'm not mistaken, he admits this himself in The Wealthy Barber Returns. Didn't find any cliffs for that one, might end up reading it.

2) I took a look at Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (recommended by Wright) and read the parts I considered interesting, not bad at all!

3) I read the paper Wright recommended, This Time Its Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises, fascinating stuff.

Any other suggestions?
 
So WickedIce's suggestions are just chopped liver? He mentioned some good shit on there.

I'd also suggest you get on the Sovereign Man's email list or memorize his blog.
 
As far as reading, the most valuable financial reading I found wasn't actually about how to invest. But about psychology. He has written several books, but I enjoyed his blog more than anything.

Blog Here (PS. He stopped posting in 2010, but the archives are gold)


Disclaimer: This is just my $.02 (been trading for 4 years - this what I've learned)

If you have read 10 books on how to trade/invest, you have read 100.

There really ins't a huge difference and don't expect to accidentally stumble across someones "secret trading edge".

There are a handful of popular well-known trading edge's out there. Find the one you like best, apply it to the time frame you like best, and work.

Backtest, run simulations, and try to identify your keys:

buy trigger, sell trigger, risk vs reward (expectancy), position size and psychology.

With those identified all you have to do is create your watch list and wait.

I think trading/investing is very similar to IM in that reading other people's experience will only get you so far, and any really great tip isn't going to be shared with the masses.

For the most part, the more someone wants to tell you how to trade, the less you should listen.

You have to find your niche, your unique edge, get fuckin awesome at it, and throw tons of volume.

IMO, there are two kinds of traders/investors.

1) The guy who "invests" in the indices and assumes compounding will make him skrill.

2) The guy who puts in the hours to find a way to break above the shitty 5% annuals (after inflation) most people are getting.

Shit, this turned into a little rant. My bad
 
lukep said:
WickedIce's suggestions
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The Intelligent Investor and Fail Safe Investing are on my list, I'll update this thread with some personal conclusions after reading them.

dtk123 said:
Blog Here (PS. He stopped posting in 2010, but the archives are gold)
Click to expand...

Took a quick look at his blog and it seems like a good resource for traders but right now, I'm interested in investment approaches that are as close to "set it and forget it" as possible.

As far as methods which generate higher returns but require more personal involvement are concerned, I prefer buying and selling domains because it's something I have quite a bit of experience with. Basically, I prefer domaining because it's something I'm better at than most people, I have an edge and I can't say the same thing about stocks :)
 
Whatever, you do, do NOT read "A Random Walk down Wall Street"

Worst financial advice by an academic pinhead ever.

Read lots and lots of Buffett. Anything by Buffett or Charlie Munger, his associate.


BTW, I hated the Wealthy Barber. How come you guys like it? I mean, what advice did he give that was useful, i.e. actionable.
 
Wicked Ice said:
Ron Paul - The Case for Gold

Anything by Mises & Rothbard

Harry Browne - Fail Safe Investing

Benjamin Graham - The Intelligent Investor

Philip Fisher - Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits
Click to expand...

+1 for Graham and Fisher. In Graham you'll find a lot of the long-term historical analysis you're looking for.
 
-joe- said:
It sounds like your main goal is to keep your money at the same value (plus inflation) as when you first invested it. In which case, I'd put it in a bank.
Click to expand...

You won't even keep up with inflation, let alone make a positive net return.
 
charlie.simm said:
The Intelligent Investor and Fail Safe Investing are on my list, I'll update this thread with some personal conclusions after reading them.
Click to expand...

Graham's and Fisher's books are supposedly Warren Buffett's bible when he was starting out.

Mises' and Rothbard's books are about Austrian economics.
 
-joe- said:
It sounds like your main goal is to keep your money at the same value (plus inflation) as when you first invested it.
Click to expand...

Yep, pretty much.

-joe- said:
In which case, I'd put it in a bank.
Click to expand...

Wright said:
You won't even keep up with inflation, let alone make a positive net return.
Click to expand...

That's true (unfortunately) and it's the main reason why I'm spending more and more time learning about various long-term investment strategies.

By keeping your money in the bank, it's losing value each year due to inflation (the real numbers, not the outrageously optimistic official ones). It seems governments think punishing savers is the way to go.

The situation is what it is, so I'll just have to adapt. C'est la vie.
 
You think investment choices 100 years ago are just as valid now? Probably not.

The best way to preserve wealth is to use it to make a lot more money. Investing in startups could be a good way. Investing in certain metals (rare earth metals) could be really good too, considering limited supply and much greater demand.

The problem with metals is that they aren't nearly as rare as you might think, not even gold. In the long term, you have to consider what asteroid mining will do to the metal markets. Companies like Planetary Resources will start mining asteroids within the next 20 years and will flood the market with metals like platinum, iron, cobalt, etc.

I think the most solid bets are:

-Medical Devices
-Human augmentations
-Software
-Intellectual property
 
VinBed said:
You think investment choices 100 years ago are just as valid now?
Click to expand...

Nope, I agree with what cabezon said:

cabezon said:
Not sure how reliable past methods will be over the next several decades, as we live in rather unique times. The next twenty years will be quite different than the last twenty.
Click to expand...

I'm getting ready to learn more and more about what worked in the past (and it's the main reason why I started this thread) because this knowledge will help me better assess our current situation.

By analyzing the past, by seeing what worked 10/20/50/100 years ago and taking context into consideration, you'll be in a far better position to determine which investment methods are likely to represent good choices in the future.
 
My main point was, heavily long term investments, like what you're talking about, are a really bad idea. Invest short term, or in your business. (Or someone elses?)
 
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