Time to make money with GOLD: SHAPOW!

mGrunin

mGrunin

New member
Jul 18, 2009
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NY, US
Fellows, a few weeks ago in a thread relating to gold I made a mention about the GOLD ETF (GLD) hitting a specific support level that should open up a high percentage play for us. Well now, a few weeks later, the opportunity is there.

This past Thursday GLD touched the $115 support level which we have been looking forwards to, and on Friday it proceeded with a modest 1% rise.

Let's direct our attention to the daily chart:

xAf79dB.png


The first thing to notice are the rejection levels (resistance levels) on the chart. Currently that level stands at $137.55. In two different instances, GLD attempted to overcome that level but failed to.

The second and more important line to notice is the support level. Back in June GLD finally found enough buyers at the $115 level. From there it went up, rejected at $137.55 and now it is testing $115 once again.

Lastly, when bollinger bands are tightening up the way they are right now, it is a reliable indicator letting us know that in the coming days the move should be explosive. Now, since GLD is sitting at a very important pivot level, this whole should be extremely explosive.

Considering that we are sitting at a support level with the BB's tight, there is a great chance that the explosion would be towards the upside.

This past Thursday we tested the support level, and then followed up with a 1% pop on Friday. So far the support level is holding up...but that doesn't necessarily mean it would continue to hold against further selling pressure.

Either way, heading into this week, if the support continues to hold and volume is above average, this creates a good entry level for the long side. A major reason why I love to open a position right at a pivot level is because we have a logical stop in mind not too far away. Lets say we get in on GLD at $118 when it begins to pop..well the instances it drops below $115 to $114/$113, we would definitely sell out, and take a minor loss. Our risk/reward here is extremely attractive.

If the support level is rejected GLD begins to head below $115, we would definitely open up a short position because $100 is the next strong support level on the weekly chart. Tons of money to be made from $115 down to $100.

If there are enough option traders out here, I could throw up a few option positions as a suggestion. Obviously the gains from options are significantly greater than trading actual shares, but the risks are high as well.

Finally as usual, here is a been had gold video for the typical shits and giggles. It is 5 AM right now, so don't give me shits for the popped collar!

http://youtu.be/QGinnNT3nvI
 


I just put together a quick video to discuss support and resistance levels further on.

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSDS7wNaPEM]Analyzing the Support & Resistance levels for GLD - YouTube[/ame]

It's 5:40 AM now fellows, that's how much I <3 you guys.
 
I follow the gold/silver market pretty closely and actually warned people that we're probably in a bull trap here on WF about a year ago when prices were starting to climb again and ended up at the $17xx level. Lots of people disagreed with me but one year later, here we are at $12xx.

Being long gold at this point like you're suggesting might make sense if we're simply talking about a short-term trade.

However, those who want to buy and hold shouldn't back up the truck just yet IMO.

I'm not going to refer to technical indicators, I'll put another argument on the table instead: the sentiment among gold enthusiasts. If you visit a few gold/silver forums, you'll see that some of the people who used to be extremely bullish are now bearish. However, a lot of them are still perma-bulls.

In my opinion, the best time to buy will be when most of those perma-bulls start turning into bears as well. We're not quite there yet and I doubt we'll see the low in 2013.

I know a lot of WF members love gold (probably because they earn a living online and like the idea of owning tangible assets as well), I talk to people about it on Skype every once in a while and just wanted to share my 2 cents. This isn't investment advice by any means, just an opinion.
 
I should really learn more about investing because I have no idea what any of that means.
 
Chap - when you get drunk you really start to sound S.American. It might just be me that hears it though since I used to be quite versed in getting drunk and ending up in places in S.America (quite a feat when you live in London I assure you).
 
Ok I have a question mgrunin. One question. If a person of maturity and above average intelligence (not me of course), knowing absolutely fuckall about stocks/trading were to begin a dedicated and thorough studying and learning process, approximately how long (in months or years) would it take to obtain the knowledge and competence necessary to have a good chance at making some serious money. Like you have. Heh. That all sounds so gay. But seriously, how long?
 
vikingred said:
Ok I have a question mgrunin. One question. If a person of maturity and above average intelligence (not me of course), knowing absolutely fuckall about stocks/trading were to begin a dedicated and thorough studying and learning process, approximately how long (in months or years) would it take to obtain the knowledge and competence necessary to have a good chance at making some serious money. Like you have. Heh. That all sounds so gay. But seriously, how long?
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The fastest way is to get money in so you can hurry up and lose it. It doesn't matter how much you think you know about the stock market. They are nothing but educated guesses. After you lose money a few times Tht experiance will start to kick in. But if all you do is study a bunch of books and charts, you're not really learning anything other than technicals.
 
wait until the economy really gets going again. when people start building houses, the RE market fully recovers, and we hit a boom time where confidence in the economy is high. gold and silver will fall even more than they have now. unless something drastic happens that reverses the recovery, gold and silver are going to continue to drop.
 
dmnEPC said:
The fastest way is to get money in so you can hurry up and lose it. It doesn't matter how much you think you know about the stock market. They are nothing but educated guesses. After you lose money a few times Tht experiance will start to kick in. But if all you do is study a bunch of books and charts, you're not really learning anything other than technicals.
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So you're saying most everyone who starts trading, loses initially? Rarely if ever does anyone gather the knowledge then dives in and starts profiting? Seems the coolest thing would be to sit and watch the people who basically know what they're doing. And, also to do simulated trading if such a thing is possible. Mgrunin must be making some really good educated guesses if he banks 11k in one day in a down market, and profits 12 out of 13 days, and hits ~75k/month.

Even aside from the money, there's something alluring about the whole thing, dunno.

Cool tag "trading 12 months=expert". I guess if you trade full time for a year, and survive, yah.
 
vikingred said:
So you're saying most everyone who starts trading, loses initially? Rarely if ever does anyone gather the knowledge then dives in and starts profiting? Seems the coolest thing would be to sit and watch the people who basically know what they're doing. And, also to do simulated trading if such a thing is possible. Mgrunin must be making some really good educated guesses if he banks 11k in one day in a down market, and profits 12 out of 13 days, and hits ~75k/month.

Even aside from the money, there's something alluring about the whole thing, dunno.

Cool tag "trading 12 months=expert". I guess if you trade full time for a year, and survive, yah.
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Nobody likes to talk about the losses. I don't care if you are brand new to trading, or been doing it for 30 years. You will lose money. Those losses are converted to experiance. And yes he is making educated guesses. If he wasn't why wouldn't We be talking about his $750 million or even billion dollar wins?

Everyone losses money in the market at some point. My point is to learn as much as possible so you can make better educated guesses. So you can hopefully make more then you lose

Losing real money helps shorten the learning curve. But even then, at the end of the day it still comes down to making the best guess you can based on the info you have. If you have all the info (you can't) and no exactly what is going to happen and when you won't be guessing any more (you will be telling the future).
 
dmnEPC said:
Nobody likes to talk about the losses. I don't care if you are brand new to trading, or been doing it for 30 years. You will lose money. Those losses are converted to experiance. And yes he is making educated guesses. If he wasn't why wouldn't We be talking about his $750 million or even billion dollar wins?

Everyone losses money in the market at some point. My point is to learn as much as possible so you can make better educated guesses. So you can hopefully make more then you lose

Losing real money helps shorten the learning curve. But even then, at the end of the day it still comes down to making the best guess you can based on the info you have. If you have all the info (you can't) and no exactly what is going to happen and when you won't be guessing any more (you will be telling the future).
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Makes sense. mgrunin's chart just had me mirin I guess. Looks pretty fuckin technical and the way he says he'll profit either way, whether it tanks or explodes. Heh.
 
vikingred said:
So you're saying most everyone who starts trading, loses initially? Rarely if ever does anyone gather the knowledge then dives in and starts profiting? Seems the coolest thing would be to sit and watch the people who basically know what they're doing. And, also to do simulated trading if such a thing is possible. Mgrunin must be making some really good educated guesses if he banks 11k in one day in a down market, and profits 12 out of 13 days, and hits ~75k/month.

Even aside from the money, there's something alluring about the whole thing, dunno.

Cool tag "trading 12 months=expert". I guess if you trade full time for a year, and survive, yah.
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Of course you want to research anything before you get into it. The number one problem with people who simulate trades and read everything they can from "gurus". Is that they get so used to doing that. They tend not to actually trade. If you lose 5k in a simulation account you have no actual feeling for that fake money. When you lose your own money. You tend to learn a lot faster.

Whether it's an up or down market it doesn't matter. You take the direction you think it's going to go. Everything in life is an educated guess. There are no sure things. If you are right more than 50% of the time you win.

Paralysis by Analysis we all have missed opportunities because we over think it. If you want to trade. Go open up a trading account and trade small amounts. That's the best way how to learn.
 
Andrew Scherer said:
unless something drastic happens that reverses the recovery, gold and silver are going to continue to drop.
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Aren't the US government plans to start shutting down the QE starting in about 8 months? Not to mention, another debt ceiling debate is around the corner.
 
lukep said:
MacG, I just gotta know why you can have such confidence in this happening after pretty much witnessing gold being artificially suppressed for so long.

You do one of the best technical breakdowns I've ever seen, but without touching the fundamentals of why it's moving in either direction in the first place, I just don't see how you can call the trend upwards rather than downwards next.
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Lukep, I think that was the point in his video. If he's able to get in at that certain low point, he's gonna profit either way. Profits may be quite different depending on which way it goes, but profit nonetheless. I don't know shit about the markets, maybe he's full of shit, but if what he says is true, then he's about to win either way. WIN EITHER WAY = :D

The win either way scenario is what is most attractive. It seems less speculative, less of a gamble. Of course this may just be his spin on it, I don't know. But I'm bored and actually interested in this.
 
Kiopa_Matt said:
Aren't the US government plans to start shutting down the QE starting in about 8 months? Not to mention, another debt ceiling debate is around the corner.
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Shut down? That's completely impossible, Matt.

They've started a taper of a tiny, token percentage. (Which will no doubt help nothing and then get the blame for the next huge QE bump up.)
 
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